Archive for 2011

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Market Rally Called Perfectly

Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

Today is December 20th, 2011 and we saw the market rally called perfectly yet again with a powerful move as mentioned in my most recent blog postings, yesterday and Friday.

I said in Friday’s post that the market would trade down to S&P 1198 in Monday’s session and then turn sharply higher with a big rally. That is exactly what we saw so far and did mention that the rally is likely to continue for some time as well.

Today we saw the Dow Jones push higher by 337 points and the S&P up 36 points, both about 3% for the single session, now that’s a rally. I used many components of my trading method to come up with the 1198 number and was getting many confirming signals which all pointed to that area.

I will post a chart below so you can see the continuation of the call and move after wards. I did no trading today as I am taking the next few weeks off, but wanted to follow up with this call. I may put up a small post here or there between now and the 1st of the year to remind readers, OK the chart below.  Merry Christmas to everyone. Vince

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Another Solid Market Call Completed

Monday, December 19th, 2011

Today is Monday December 19th, 2011 and I saw another solid market call completed with today’s 1198 S&P target hit with the early stages of the sharp reversal showing up as well.

In Friday’s blog posting I mentioned that we would see the S&P 1198 number hit, followed by a sharp reversal in prices and towards the end of the day we finally did see just that and in the after market the reversal back up is on. I did try and trade this with some success as I locked in a couple of early targets and held on to the last one for more. I did move my stop a couple of times deciding if I wanted to commit the whole day, which is not really my style, but I gave it shot.

I could not really complete it as I did try and add on to get the equivelent in the drop, but got stopped out on the add on.  Just after getting stopped out, the market turned on down towards the target area mentioned like a magnet and since reversed as I figured and wrote that it would in my last blog post.

The pressure is going to turn to the upside in the days to come as this wave down is completed. This is all my own opinion and not advise, but we should see upwards pressure coming back into the market and it could be substantial. Many think this market is going to crash, but having an open mind and looking both ways may be a better idea, but that is just me expressing my mind. If you feel differently, by all means follow your own strategy and method, but this is just my own analysis in the daily markets. The days trade below.

Typically, I would not be looking to take a position trade for the better part of the day, but found myself looking to that today. It is OK because I really had this in mind before I put it on, which is important. There were other good low risk scalp trades to be had but was trying to trade off the call I made on Friday.

The chart above is a larger clean chart of the whole day and part of Friday’s session. No indicators here again today as we trade the price first and still trying to make that clear for those who look on. If you want to see the smaller time frame view of past session look back to weeks and months past and you see every trading session as I trade with plenty to see.

That’s it for now. I will be taking the next two weeks off but may try and post something as a reminder if  I am lead to. Wish all my readers the best this Holiday season. Vince

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The Perfect Trading Day

Saturday, December 17th, 2011

Today’s post is for Friday’s session December 16, 2011 as I had the perfect trading day.

There was some pretty good moves early on in Friday’s session in the S&P’s, but mid day things just went to sleep. I took only one trade and was actively participating in the market for 45 minutes and in the trade for 30 minutes and closed the last of my scaled out position for around 5 points. The perfect trading day, with little struggle and only one tick of draw down for the session.

For Monday’s session, I do think we will see a number I put out for Thursday’s session 1198/97 in the S&P futures but this time it will be in the active session. We hit that number called and got the desired reaction of a instant 22 S&P point rally of which I did say would happen and it did on cue, but do believe we will need to see that number now for the regular session.

I won’t be overly anxious about seeing that come to pass but just think it will come Monday. We are in a pretty good position to hit that in pretty quick fashion but again think we should see some strong buying power lift prices back up and would be looking for an up week in the markets overall. Let me post my day’s trades below.

Currently the S&P futures are at 1210 and 1197/98 is 12-13 points away, so don’t be surprised to see that move early on as it should trade in the regular session to that point. This is just my opinion and not trade or investment advise, so be sure to do your own research and analysis.

I have a larger tick chart here to fit in the whole day, but no trade indicators.  I have been trying to drive home the point that the trading method is not indicator driven and has all its own basis for taking the trades or not. It is hard to not talk about it and not say how things work, so I show something that traders who look on can identify with, trade indicators. They are consistent with the trading method but are not the basis for it. It is all very specific and clear with entries, stops and targets.

I wanted traders who are learning the method to rely on there ability to read the price apart from the indicators and do training several times per week for members to drive that point home. When you put some of the indicators back up, you will see that they confirm very nicely to give you the same exact points that the method will give you on own method analysis. I hope that is clear.

The goal is to get traders to be able to read any price chart and have confidence to trade it if they choose. It can be any style of price charts, candle charts, minute charts, tick charts, point and figure charts, range charts, it does not matter. Again, it can be in any time frame as well.

This can be very valuable when looking at one’s long term portfolio of stocks and mutual funds if you have them. The same would apply to those as well. This is a skill that can be learned. There is more than one way to view and understand the markets and the approach I take is different and not rarely seen if ever in its combination of techniques. It is my method approach that is unique to me, built up over decades, literally.

Many traders use different styles that can include some of the various bar charts as mentioned. Let me reiterate, you can use candle charts, range charts, tick charts, minute charts, as that part really does not matter. I use tick charts and build the screen with more than one time frame to get the chart to view as just one screen and time frame and that is apart of the trading method.

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Market Rallied on Called Number

Thursday, December 15th, 2011

Today is Thursday December 15th, 2011 and we did see a market reversal on cue from yesterdays call.

I stated yesterday that we would see a sell off early on down to the 1197 area and that would spark a nice rally. We saw that exactly, but the sell off came in the night session and we did rally significantly from that point, +22 S&P points right after. From there, we saw another sell off back down, but things leveled out and we stayed in a very narrow range for the rest of the session. I was looking for a regular session move to confirm the original early move to the number, but it did not come in time before the session ended, it may show up tomorrow?

In today’s trading session, I took roughly 5 trades and came out with a nice day in hand. I will have to admit I was reaching for today retest of the early numbers, that I called for and as mentioned it did not come in time. Still was sharp enough to close out some of the moves with profit locked in.

At the end of this week, I will be taking off from trading thru the Holiday’s and restarting in January, and was trying to beef up some gains today to make up for time off. I have enough confidence in the trading method that it would produce more if I kept at it and that would have been the case if we had some movement. Early on in the session we saw was some good moves and would have done well if I was there to trade it. Let me post the days trades and will continue below.

You can see the spike down early on in the chart as it hit the called area, within one S&P point. I was debating to call 1197 or 1198 yesterday and chose the lower number, but I will have to say that was a pretty good call overall, within one point.

To trade off of that would have been nice, but I was asleep as most us. I was looking for a retest in the regular session, but had to take profit on those 3 key area lows to lock it in as it was just taking it’s sweet time. I traded almost 4 hours today and that is way more than I have done in months.  I can only wait on the price action and take what it offers and that is what I did today. I don’t want to overly commit to a call or position that will cause me harm because things change and we need to be able to change with them or suffer.

I was not about to suffer today if I could help it and that calls for being conservative and not overly aggressive. I could take that aggressive stand more often and increase size at opportune times and come up with more, but have been content with the little I do, plugging away.  Maybe one day I will step it up.

There is plenty of time and find that I am still learning things about the market, as we all should be. No one arrives to a final destination as a trader. It is a constant evolution that continues its advance forward to more and greater insight. That is how it should be for everyone else as well.

Being a good day trader takes time. If you have a good method, a good mentor and some tools, you can cut that time down considerably. That could mean the difference between years and months. I know it has taken me the years side to get where I am, as I literally learned it all on my own. Lots of trial and error with a extra measure of error as is the case with many traders. I never bought or paid for anything trading related except a couple of books back in the 80’s and that is the truth. I am not saying that was a smart thing to do, but just sharing my experience. Thus, I have seen a lot over many many years and as mentioned am still learning.  This has shown me many things about the price action of stocks, index’s, option, futures, and currencies.
Everyone is in a different place and we can all see the allure that trading offers, but I feel traders who are starting out really need to go much slower than they do. It seems easy, but it rarely is. It may be simple in some respects, but that is met with the unseen challenges of us. We to often are our worst enemy when it comes to bridging the gap towards profitability. If we could take an equal amount of time for self-improvement in all area’s of life, you would see how much that would help your trading. This is the unseen sword that can slash us to pieces if we are not mentally prepared. On the other hand for those that see the essential benefit for taking action in this fashion, they are rarely disappointed for their efforts
That’s it for now, I will be back tomorrow for “the rest of the story”.

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Looking for Market Reversal

Wednesday, December 14th, 2011

Today is December 14th, 2011 as the short term selling continued today, but am looking for a market reversal in tomorrows session.

I could see the S&P futures moving on down to 1197 early on and think that we could see a significant bounce and eventual turn around into next week. This is just my opinion and I will be willing to trade long and or short depending on the days action. This call is mostly for the daily market as I think the selling will start to dry up at the above levels.

In today’s trading I took 3 trades and invested about 30 minutes into my trading before coming up with enough for a modest daily goal. I came into the first trade a touch late but the second attempt was right on.

I put back up the same screen shots as I normally do but did add one other thing into the picture. There are yet more things I build onto the screen and other time frames that are tied directly into each other to make a complete picture, which is not shown. Let me post the days trades and I will continue below.

I recently in a few previous posts, blanked all the indicators off the screen for a reason and that is to make the point that traders really need to trade the price as it moves on there screens. If you only rely on trade indicators you are not really making progress. We need to know why the market moves, not just that is does. Knowing the “why”, is the empowering part that is missing from many traders. If we only react to what we see as trade indicators signal long and short, we can to easily get whipped around the screen and feel out of touch and ultimately out of control. So, the key is learn and understand price. How it moves, how it reverses, when is the likely times for turning points and continuation points and do all of that while risking very little.

Being able to zero in on the low risk spots is so very important. Trading with a 3-5 point stop to make 2 points on a trade is totally out of the question. If you are doing that, you will have problems sooner or later. The key again is risking little for a high probability of making the same at a minimum or preferably 2 to  3 times your risk.

Question; Do you catch yourself saying, “I think the market is going up” but don’t really know why?  If you had to explain your reasons for the market move to go up to someone and or had to write it down, could you. If you can not do that, then you need work. You can not just say, “I think”, you have to know “why” it will and or should go up and have clear compelling reasons.

This kind of thinking takes place all the time and traders are pushed into trades that are far less than desirable. They then have to struggle to justify the position and then do worst damage by blinding themselves to everything that says it is going the other way.

All of this can be eliminated and or reduced a great deal if traders would not take trades solely based on trade indicators. Seeing how and why markets move and positioning themselves in those low risk area’s for gain with limited risk is where you want to be.

Don’t trade just to trade, trade with purpose and a clear understand of price action, the trade indicators could then confirm your decisions and may be a comfort, but don’t let it be a crutch from you learning what you need to know.

Do you want to have fun or make money? Many would say make money, but there action say a very different thing. Think about it. You can do both as long as you strive to make money first in a responsible manner, then that could be fun.

So, the moral of the story is, learn what you need to learn to trade safe and responsibly. What support and resistance is and how you can harness it to your advantage. Easier said than done for many, but having a complete trading method that is spelled out with rules and objectives will take a lot of the pressure off as you will be creating some structure to your approach. It takes time, for some a long time, and for others not as long and still others never get there. Do the hard thing, not the easy thing, that could be your first clue and assignment.

Good trading to all ! Vince

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What is Sniper Day Trading ?

Wednesday, December 14th, 2011

12-13-11; What is Sniper Day Trading?  Day Trading is when you initiate a trade during a single session and you exit all positions before the end of the day. Some of those trades can last last minutes to hours depending on your method or style of trading.

The Sniper part comes in when you are able to zero in on your entries to such a degree that your risk is very limited and reward well worth the risk taken. I minimum risk reward ration is 1:1 and often much better at 2 or 3:1 and higher.

Every trader comes into this with different objectives and it is rarely the same for any two traders. Some try to trade all day and take several trades throughout. Others are more selective and only trade a limited number of times. I have done both over time and find that I enjoy coming to the market when I am ready and look for opportunities that will take me to 2-4 points for the session. I call that “my daily goal”.  There are times that I will trade more and hit 3 or 4 times my daily goal and or higher. I don’t look for those days they just happen, usually about 2-3 times per month. That can make up for days I have a daily stop out, out which is right around 4 S&P points.

My choice for when I start to trade and for how long I trade and for how many points I will trade for, are all personal to me. It is different for everyone and there trading style should be apart of there personal trading plan. This is in addition to there trading method. That covers all the aspects of what a trade setup is and how it can be read. Where the trade is likely to go and how you plan on managing the trade once you get in it. That is all about the trading method.

The trading method is price action driven and that means, we always look to the price first as that is what always leads any trading indicator. The price is first so it only makes sense to learn how to read the price and that is all very possible.

We use more than one time frame and they fit inside each other actually acting as one chart. The first is a zoomed in view of the second which is larger as that brings the view to light in a way that can be exploited when you again know how to read the price.

I do have some charts that I trade with that have no indicators on them at all to keep a clean pure view what I need to see with my eyes apart from indicators. I do also have other screens that do have them up as it should only be a confirmation of what you are doing, but all for its own method reasons apart from any indicators and the influence it might bring. That is a very important point.

There is no substitute for learn how to trade this way. Doing so will empower and enable you to trade any Stock, Commodity, Forex or Index future you choose to.

It is a good practice to wait for the best entries, but I often as mentioned trade when I am ready and take what is available. That may not really be the best for the best results, but I figure I gain my freedom in its exchange. If I were to stalk a big trade move for hours before coming into it, I could make more, but I have to give up my time and have to commit more of my day to the screen. This is just a personal choice and I usually choose not to. I like the fact that I can come into the market for an hour or two, get what I am looking for and leave. That is not always that easy to do for many others as the market does tend to have an addictive element to it and that has to be acknowledged. Failing to accept that fact can lead to over-trading and trading fatigue which will weight down on your overall performance.

Getting impatient can lead you to make mistakes and I make my share of them. I made a bad trade today on entry and exit. Its not the norm but it happens. Fortunately I had three other nice trades, especially my last with increased size.

Every trader needs to have a solid trading method to follow and adhere to. You then need your own personal trading plan to complement your trading method which will encompass many things as mentioned above like trading style including time frames, when you plan to trade, how long you plan to trade and for how much etc.  Not yet mentioned, you need to know how and what you are going to do to feed your mind with the right stuff to keep you balanced, committed, disciplined and patient. This is what Sniper Day Trading focuses on in full and what has helped me in my trading. Again this method is price action driven with clearly defined rules for entry, exit, stop placement, etc. It has a very simple element to it and a much more advanced element to it as well which comes over time.

That’s all for now as I will post my days trades under this. I have taken all indicators off my screen shots as I want to drive this point home to those who may be following. I wish you all the best.

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Trade in the Now, Leave the Past Behind

Monday, December 12th, 2011

Today is Monday December 12th and I think when looking at the big picture, the market is marking time.

What I mean by that is time needs to pass for the ability to make higher prices. That is an unpopular position as the world looks like it turning upside down, but it is still the likely path for price at this time. At this time is the key phrase as the market refuses to crack. Many are expecting a crash and they have valid reasons, but I still think we have time. We could see prices in the daily market to make slightly lower prices, but think there is another rally behind this last one, we shall see.

In the smaller times frames of which I trade, that is where the rubber meets the road. We started off in the early session, leveled out mid day and put in a rally late in the session. I started the day late and was in the slow chop section. The move I had been showing to members in a training video is the move that did show up. In today’s case, the market had to mark a bit of time before it was ready for the advance.

Today’s trades below and some additional comments;

I took everything off the screen today as I want to make the point that we do not trade off of trade indicators. Those are only a reflection of the price which always comes first. Indicators can be misleading at times for those who don’t know how to read the price first.

What came first, the chicken or the egg. OK, maybe that may not be the best example, but the price always comes first, then the indicators reflect what the price is saying. If you know and learn how to read the price and that means entries and exit, and managing the stops, you will be able to really trade. You can trade anything in any time frame.

Using more than one time frame is something we do. There is a complete reason for doing so, as there are trends and moves inside of others. Every chart in its own time frame is saying something about where it is and where it is likely to be going. If you learn the launguage you will do well as long as you have the  trade discipline to follow it. Many traders have a great method, but lack the patients and trade discipline to act only when called on.

This is something every trader always has room to improve on. If traders would work on themselves in this area just as much as they do in learning an actual trading method, they would see the results they strive for. Success lies within each one of us and it is just waiting to be released. You need to direct your energy in every area of your life to a balanced approach so that when you arrive to the trading part, it is synergistic to every other area and in harmony.

There is a lot to what I just said, but this is some of the most difficult stuff for traders to first see, then accept and finally act upon. If you are looking to find your spot in the markets, first look within and be honest with where you are and your abilities. Then take the steps to move forward. If you keep making some kind of progress, you will always be moving towards your dreams. Just be sure that it does not get stuck in the dreaming phase, because that happens to everyone. The sooner you move past that, the sooner you will get where you want to go.   Trade in the now, leave the past behind.

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Stock Market Still Showing Strength

Wednesday, December 7th, 2011

Today is December 7th, 2011 and the stock market is still showing strength. We closed at the highs of the day and that is a good sign. The other day I talked about market rotation and it appears that is going on. Tomorrow could be the day that we will know for sure.

A break above that wall of resistance I wrote about several posts ago seems to have been validated and with the last few sessions I see signs of that breaking to the upside. This again is not popular but I just call it as I see it, of which I could be wrong, so we shall see. If I am wrong I will admit it, there is no shame in being wrong as that is just part of the process.

Weeks ago, I did say the market would reach the 1308 area but we sold off first and made one of the fastest and largest turn around in history. Down 10% in 7 days and back up 10 % in 5 days.

In today’s trading, I did a U-Tube video because I traded a lot longer than I normally do. I hit over three times my average daily goal to put in a nice day. Since it covers a good portion of the day, I just elected to do a video showing the whole session.

As I always like to point out, the indicators are only a reflection of the method. The method is first and the trading indicators come along for the ride to confirm what is already happening and understood with the price action. This is the best way to learn how to trade. You need to know how to build price structure and what that means for the next likely move and targets.

You can’t always swing for the fences, you need to be able to read the price action and let it tell you where prices will go. I took 5 trades today with 4 profitable for small scalps of 1-2 points each and the last one good for 2+ points, 6 points and 9 points at the top. The loss was for 5 ticks or 1.25 points. OK, that’s it for today, the video below if you care to watch. Good Trading to all.

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Market showing signs of Strength

Tuesday, December 6th, 2011

Today is Tuesday December 6th, 2011 and the market is showing signs of strength with three days of not wanting to give up any ground. That could still work for the bulls benefit as market rotation could be taking place. The weak hands have traded there positions to stronger hands and in that way, the market does not want to give up any ground, thus market rotation.

There sure is a lot of news out these days and why I don’t like following it to help me make market decisions. All the news is constantly being inserted into the market on a moment by moment basis, so it pays to follow the market as that is more of a pure play. There can be to many games played as institutional traders try and work the news to draw in participants only baiting them so they can sell it off.

The price action within the day is in my opinion the best way to not get duped. Let me state, that if you don’t know how to read the price, you will still get hung out to dry. It does take time to learn, but it can be learned if you know or have the blue prints. A builder trying to build a structure with no blueprints would be foolish. In the same way attempting to trade with no blueprints, plan, method is also foolish, but traders try it all the time.

You have to admire the initial burst of self confidence, but it is soon most often met with trading  reality that it is not easy. Trading can be simple, but it is rarely easy. That is often a lure for many. It does not look that hard, until you try it for real and see that it is not that easy. I say that to those who don’t have a trading method that works. This is not just a few idea’s of how or what you will do when or as it relates to your favorite indicators, but an actual written plan on how to view, interpret and then trade the market.  If you have a few years, you might be able to come up with one yourself, but otherwise, you will may need to look around.

Not all trading method are created equal, that is for sure. With that said, it should include things that are visual to help you see what is present already on the screen and it should be backed up with a solid consistent trading methodology. The second part is the one most have a problem with as it often does not exist. I feel, a trader needs to know why a trade is going to go up or down, not just that it is. If he knows why, then he can understand the process and know what to do about taking advantage of it the next time he see’s it coming. Without that knowledge, you are left powerless to forces you do not understand and that is not going to help you long term. You will be left twisting in the wind.

So, to recap, having a solid trading methodology to go along with all the tools is imperative. The tools alone will not make a good trader. There is just to many things going on within the market on a daily basis that you will not be able to keep up with it.

Knowledge is Power and those that have the knowledge have the power. I know we have all heard that before and it is in large part, very true. Get the knowledge and see the power.

In today’s trading, I was only able to catch the last few minutes only of today’s market for a few points. I came in late and missed the opportune entry, but it still had a few low risk points left in the move. A screen shot below with an accompanying sister chart.  Good trading to all.

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Daily Reversal

Saturday, December 3rd, 2011

Today’s post is for December 2nd, 2011 were we saw a “Daily Reversal” in the markets. Yesterday I had written about the prospects of the stops getting hit and pushing the market higher and or lower. We saw that early on as the market again in the night session pushed ahead 17 S&P point triggering the stops overhead to cover and then the market fell back to put in a “daily reversal” and closed near the lows of the session.

That does and can happen at market tops. Pushing participants into the market only to take them out as the market starts to fall. The key to Friday’s action is that at the end of the day, the market was at the lows of the session. Typically, that would not be a good sign for this coming week.

From where we are now, it does appear that we could see an early move up to yet again draw in those who feel the current price is a bargain in Monday mornings early action and that would be a reaction to the sell-off from Friday, but what could come after that is the possibility for a pretty big drop. Its not totally conclusive, but we could see that move to 1200 on the S&P that I mentioned on Thursday over the next couple of days. This is just my opinion and nothing else.

In Friday’s trading I did good with only one trade for 4 & 5 points. I called out another trade in a training video for about 5 points, start to finish and it went right to the “trade to target” that I called as in the first trade. The screen shot below.

Trade to targets are area’s where the entry and exits are clearly seen all before hand. It can give you the patients to stay with the trade for the finish of the move if you can see it ahead of time. This is different in that you are not really reacting to the little twists and turns the market may show you, because you feel you know what the end result will ultimately be.  That’s in for now and until next time, good trading to all.

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