Archive for 2010

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Market comes back to life, as called

Wednesday, October 20th, 2010

Today is Wednesday October 20st, 2010 and the markets came back to life after yesterdays sell off.

The market is not out of the woods here and I don’t really want to tout my last call, but so far so good. We will have to see what tomorrow brings, but the trend is still intact, so the benefit of the doubt has to go with the bulls right now. We are coming up to the election and a strong sell off in the markets will likely seal the fate of the those in power. I think damage control is the call they are making right now. This would suggest some form of market manipulation, well, I am sure I am not the first, and won’t be the last to make such a suggestion.

Their were some good earnings reports out today and it may have been a good excuse to buy, for those whose purpose is to do so. They did and the S&P retested its previous highs of 1180. I did say on Sunday evening that we could or should see higher price of which would close in on 1200 S&P early in the week. Well, we may just have to wait a few more days for that, but it does look likely that it will come soon enough. The surprises have been mostly to the upside as traders and investors are getting it from both sides. Fear of loosing a lot, (short covering) and fear of missing the move, both rolled up with a lot emotion.

Tomorrow I will report on this weeks new market sentiment numbers that were out today. We will see if the slow weekly increases continue as they have, an inch at a time over now the last 7 weeks.

In today’s trading I only took a few trades all of which was encompassed around one area. I was trading for only about 30 minutes today and did pick up what I wanted.  Their were a bunch of great opportunities that could have been had after the open. I included an extra chart today, because my closing position was not until late in the day. I did not have time to get back online and close it out earlier. Its to bad because their was plenty of good exit area’s at much higher prices. I planed to come back and check in the early afternoon, but couldn’t, no big deal. More opportunities in tomorrow session.

Just a reminder, the indicators in the charts below are not the trading method. I have to remind those who look on to that fact. They are only their to confirm or deny the method entries of which is based on something completely different.  This is the smallest time frame chart of which I use as the other charts are integrated into this one. The basis of the trading method is following price action.  Their are a complete set of guidelines to follow. It is a very sound methodology as many traders have been successful in applying its principles. With all that said, using just the one trade indicator I have here can help you improve your trade timing a lot. Holding you back from getting in to early and such. My first trade today, I did enter to early, in an anticipatory move. It proved me wrong with a 5 tick stop-out. The rest were a bit better allowing me to keep my risk low and take the move to higher ground. OK, That’s it for today,

Until tomorrow, Good Trading!

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Sell off in the Markets but Uptrend still looks OK for now !

Tuesday, October 19th, 2010

This post is for Tuesdays market October 19th, 2010 and we saw a bit of a sell off in the markets across the board.

The sell off was contained and the market did pull back up off its lows but also above an important support point from a few days ago,  Thursdays and Fridays low. Today’s close ended above those lows and that is important even if intra day it broke it. The more important sign and or part is that it closed above those previous lows.

So, we wait. If we can hold on and I think we still will, this clustering of multiple days will make for a better advance when we come out of it. Today’s drop may even slow down the rising bullish sentiment. The polling is done after the Tuesday close and reported to subscribers of which I am not before tomorrows open. This is an investment survey of Market newsletter writers. This information is very helpful in gauging the public, since these newsletter writers are writing for the public by and large. Then the public acts on this information and they are wrong so often at critical turning points, go figure.

I am not making fun of them, but that is just the way it is and likely the way it will continue to be. Human nature has not changed as far I know.

In today’s trading, I only was at it for what seemed like minutes. In fact it was 10 minutes for the bulk of today’s gains. I did add just a tiny scalp on very small size after when I saw the exact moment for a re-entry. I could have easily taken a point but just found myself taking a tiny scalp. I really liked the first two trades as I played them exactly the way I would have, even if I saw the data ahead of time. I saw no reason to mess it up, and just closed it up. Traveling in the S.F. Bay area for today, but will be back tomorrow and should have more time, for the markets and such. My trades below.

I have not come up with anything different as of yet, so I have reverted back to what I was showing before. This is just a small piece of my total set up and the smallest chart size of what I follow in my method.

Good Trading, Vince

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Market Advances With More Still to Come !

Monday, October 18th, 2010

T0day is Monday October 18th, 2010 and the market did continue its advance as called in yesterdays blog with the Dow up +80 points and the S&P +3.75 points on the close.

In yesterdays blog post I said the market would likely advance even though the market at the time was down over 8 S&P future points (about 80 Dow Points) on its way to over -10 point S&P points and rallied as I thought it would. It is the start of another wave coming this week which should get the S&P to 1200. Their is a little left in this market and it is getting played out as we speak.

One statement that I could not forget from yesterdays writings was, “The rally would not end until all the shorts have covered and the longs are all invested”. That stuck to me for a while, because that is what I think is now happening. The big decline that everyone was expecting in late August/ early September, never happened and those traders and investors that went short then are the ones who are helping cover this market to new high ground. We are now around 140 S&P points above that low turning point on the S&P with a little more to go.

Everyone needs to do a little soul searching and come to the realization that the economy is being pumped up from various directions. I won’t go into what I could at this time, but just know, markets are a lot bigger than you and me. We just need to know who is playing and what is their objective to know the next move. You will never come a realization of fact until you see things as they are and not as you want them to be. Far to many people are seeing things as they hope, dream and wish, but its not about us and what we want in this world. It is about what is and what are you going to do about it. Harsh words, I know, but this is the only kind of thinking that will keep you on the right side of the market.

Their is a time to bearish and a time to be bullish. Late August in general, was not a time for a bearish position. Just like what is potentially shaping up now as not a time for a bullish position. So, be like a doctor and take the pulse and heart rate of the market. Do not see it as you want it to be, because the market is larger than you and does not really care what you or I think. Try and see the masses and what are they doing and why are they doing it. Their you will get answers as to the real intentions of what is taking place.

In today’s trading I did have a quiet morning to follow the markets. I often don’t trade the early market open, but I am trying to change a long habit of trading when ever. With a solid methodology, a trader can do this, but it could end up being more work than it has too. Meaning, if trying to trade the slow mid day portion of the day, most traders will struggle with issues. Market to slow, no patients to wait for the setup, anxiety, forcing trades are just a few problems traders will face during the 9 to 11 am West Coast time. It could serve as a good time to learn or get ready for the afternoon session or what have ya, but as a rule, traders should be very careful trying to trade during this time.

Back to how I did today. I took a few more trades than I wanted to, but enough to get what I came for. I know that on the open, the market is not always going to show its hand so quickly, so I was ready for a couple of scalp trades. The two I took, were just a little out of reach, I did not get filled on the first one and did not reach the second one when I want to get cover. It all worked out in the end and chalked up another winning day. Nothing earth shattering, but we have to take what the market gives and it was not putting out a whole lot in the early morning. The chart below.

Good trading to all, until next time, Vince over and out.

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Market Ready for Continued Advance

Sunday, October 17th, 2010

This post is for Friday’s session as the market is still showing strength in the midst of bad news.

On Friday, the market bounced off of some very strong support, in the Dow and S&P 500. Once that support was touched, it reversed back up off that figure showing a sign of strength. The S&P futures closed strong into the close showing gains for the day. Currently the S&P futures are off in the night trading as of 8:40 pm Sunday evening West Coast.

Often, you will see prices off in the early session only to close the gap and move higher. I think that is exactly what will happen in Monday’s session. If Friday’s low gets taken out, scratch that, as we will need to hold Friday’s established support and I think we will.

The market is in a good position to continue its advance. We have had three days of sideways movement giving the market a chance to catch up with itself. I have talked many times about “Time and Price”, as they go hand in hand. After a very large run up or run down, you will see a choppy market as the time factor gets kicked into gear. Time to digest its gains or losses and re-establish value as the market participants see it. We don’t need to question its moves, but only to interpret them and trade accordingly.

So, back to the daily charts as I was saying, we have seen three days of sideways action and the market seems a bit determined to move higher. I see a big day coming early on in the week, Monday and Tuesday are likely days.

The market sentiment moved up again last week by a 2% putting it at 47.2%.  It has been moving slowly right with this advance a little at a time and we are now past the mid-way point looking at the other end of the extreme. We are not their yet and will need to see 55%+ Bullishness to be on guard for a market drop of significance. By the pattern covering the last 7 weeks or so, this number has been slowing creeping up with the advance and is acting very typical as far as I see. I have set a target weeks ago of around 1220 + on the S&P futures and we are not that far away from it. We could see 1200 in the early part of this week very quickly.

The only way to get the bulls to continue to shift their opinion to get bullish the stock market, is for the market to continue to advance. I can see the resistance ahead as clear as day. I saw it many weeks ago, even before the market moved out of its base at the end of August in the 1040 area. I can’t say for certain as in this game, nothing is certain, but the odds favor a continued advance to the numbers stated, which is just my opinion.

We are coming up to the mid term elections which are only weeks away. This would tie in with my target area getting hit and the gas coming out of the market at that time. Their will be a good excuse, I am sure. It could even be the looming  “Foreclosure Banking crisis” that is just ticking like, well, you know what.

This rally is a big draw to get the public and anyone else who thinks that they missed it again, to jump on board. Time will tell as I am sure a lot of people are confused that the market did not go down in September and October, typically the worst two months out of the year. Once the public catches on, the market will throw you a curve ball and take you out. That is what is happening the last two months. Once everyone gets cleared out of the shorts and the public gets long,  only then will the market drop, my opinion, for what ever its worth.

No trading for me on Friday, but hope to get back into things this week. Its been a light trading schedule for me the last week and did OK considering my limited trading time.

I will post on Monday after the markets are closed for sure, so come on back and see what I have to say, until then, Good Trading to all.

Vince

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New Highs for the Stock Market and it not over !

Wednesday, October 13th, 2010

Today is Wednesday October 13th, 2010 and the market is moving higher posting solid gains in the face of adversity, with +75 on the Dow and +10.25 on the S&P.

We saw more upside as I mentioned we would in the last few posts. We had a nice reversal day with yesterdays gap lower and then higher close. That is a good sign in a bull run that their is more to come. I have a few targets that I called out many weeks ago. I called 1225 or better on the S&P and we are not really that far from it now, with today hitting 1181. My big mantra for a bull move surprise started when the S&P was hovering around the 1040 area. That is now 140 S&P points higher. It has take a little while but we finally are over the long term weekly resistance that was over head and on to the upper end of the target area I called for in late August. You can go back and read my posts, as it was overwhelmingly pointing to a surprise rally taking most by surprise. All during that week of consolidation back then, I was commenting on the coming move again and again.

The third week of July was when I was getting strong indications of a major move up. We saw that for a few weeks and then a correction which set up this longer advance and here we are. Take it one day at a time and know that the trend is up, until other wise notified, by the market. The price tells all and indicators are only a reflection of what is happening within the price. So, if you learn how to read the price, the indicators will only confirm what you already know. If you try and learn the indicators, you will never know why they are giving buy and sell readings and you will be confused with which one to follow. If you know the language, you will posses the trading advantage. That is what every trader needs. Without it, you are only guessing and the odds of long term success do not show well with this.

The stock market is fractal in nature, which means what ever time frame you are looking at, you should be able to see, read and learn what the next move of the market will be at select times. No one will know ever twist and turn and we don’t try and figure out every wiggle, but when the language becomes very clear, as to its next move while keeping your risks low, that is when you move. At that time, you posses the trading advantage.

In today’s trading I hit just a few trades, all winning moves, but just small. I was in scalp mode and just wanted to get a few points and be done. I only spend 30 minutes at it today and got what I needed.  I totally saw exactly to the tick 1181 as a potential high for today’s market. I thought of trading for it on the second have of my last trade, but I did not have my chart set up for that. If my target gets hit, my stop will automatically cancel itself and I could actually walk away from the trade and be OK, but I did not have it set up for that this time, that was fine and just closed it out and left.

I am trying to finish up a few things and it is time consuming. I may share more of that later, but it is not trading related. People in my area need help, and I am making myself available to them. This is what I love about trading the markets. You can put in a little time, get rewarded and move on. That is one of the big benefits of being able to trade. You are able to get a modest goal or return for the day and go do something else. “Time Freedom”.  With it, you have endless options as to what you do with your free time.

So, don’t give up. If you have it in your blood to master trading, in what ever form, keep trying, but be responsible with your passion. It is hard to trade with funds that are not part of true risk capital. Just getting to that spot, can really help your own trading. It will help you relax and take the edge off. That is not to say, you can be reckless and loose, but just the contrary. If you are not worried about other obligations, it is a lot easier to get to where you want to go. How ever you proceed, take your time. Going to a 4 year college is expensive and many times, you don’t really have all you need to succeed in the real world. So, if you can allot extra time to what ever you think achieving your goals will take in your trading pursuits, you will also be releasing pressure off of you expectations and this too will help you in the long run.

We are trained to get what we want and get it now, unfortunately, being apart of a small minority of traders who can pull money out of the market will take time and dedication. I truly believe, for those that want it badly enough, they will find it eventually. It may be that you have had to put your dreams on hold now and then, but with the right method, you can prosper. That does not even have to be my trading method. Their are good approaches available, but knowing which is good and which works, is another thing. All I know is, that what I do works and can be duplicated.

If you have questions and want to know more about what I do, or just need some advise, drop me an email message and I will do my best to help. If you have questions about what you are doing, and want my advise, I will help where I can.

Good trading to all, Vince

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New Highs for the Market again, market call on target!

Tuesday, October 12th, 2010

Today is Tuesday October 12th, 2010 and we are seeing higher prices with more to come as the market pulls an about face off of a premarket sell-off.

We saw a big reversal today with the market recovering all of the gap that we saw on the open and then some. I did have the gap clearly in my mind as the morning session was getting under way. I missed several good crystal clear trades after the open and started my day with a 1 point S&P futures loss. Came back just after with an OK entry for a three point gains, followed by a small scalp trade to finish the day. I did have a flat trade after that, but had to leave the room for a moment to long before I could take 1 point off, my original plan. I ended that trade flat as stated, but ended the day up for a modest daily goal.

Nothing to exiting there today, as I have been taking off early and have not had much screen time the past week. This will continue into the rest of this week as I have a few other things going on. I will try and get a few points before I take off but that is how my days are going right now. It will change back to having a bit more time to settle into the trading session and do some training video’s for my students, but I have to take one day at a time right now. Next week will be more settled for me. ( I guess out of default, I will be showing my trades for a while until I can come up with something else in a different time frame or something different, not decided)

It was nice to see that the market ended the day on high note. I know their is so much bad news out their that what is happening within the markets, does not seem to exactly reflect the current financial environment.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Foreclosure-freeze-could-apf-3924319053.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Their was a ton of fraud going on in the mortgage industry and it was not going to come out good for the home owner. Their can be a lot of finger pointing and blame to go around, on both sides, but the fact is, the mortgage industry has shut down basically all foreclosures on homes until they can get a handle on what is happening. This is bad news long term, but it is not so bad right now. This all plays into my theory of an expanding market until some event or catalyst kicks into gear. That will take the market down fast and furious, but just not yet. We are building into that as we speak, with the market moving into an area that will yet again captivate the public to invest again. They will not see what is coming as usual and get hurt again.

The market sentiment will give you the sign as to when this fleecing will be rip for the fraudsters to start the cycle all over again. Right now, they are drawing the public and any other, willing to buy into this rally. So, buyer beware is the story of the day. Their is likely more to go as I do see higher prices coming. I put out a few numbers last month and updated that last week and we are getting closer every day to hitting it. I will do a recap over the weekend on what I think and where we are in the cycle. This is all readable as I so often do, read the market. It can be done on  daily charts, hourly, minutes, or any other measure of movement, like tick charts, volume charts or range charts, all of which are pretty popular to traders.

So I will pick it up tomorrow and go from their.   Good Trading to all, from Vince

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Market on Course for higher prices

Saturday, October 9th, 2010

Today’s post is for Friday’s session October 8th, 2010 as the market continues to defy all logic and climb higher, +57 points on the Dow, +4 points on the S&P futures.

The market continued its climb higher as we moved into new high ground. Last week and before, I talked a lot of market direction and it was nice to see the expected resolve to the upside. It could have gone down, but their were far more things showing me higher prices. That was totally the unconventional market call, I know, but reading the current price action in what ever the time frame is possible. Having an understanding of market sentiment can help a lot if you also know how to interpret it. With that said, anyone following me for any length of time knows that I have been bullish for months now, from the very market bottom of 1040 and with a confirmation at 1060 on the S&P. That is 120 points from the bottom and 100 points from the confirmation point.

Calling for a market bottom and reversal up in late August was not a popular call and I remember feeling a little uneasy about it back then, but I had seen this scenario a hundred times if not more over the years in the daily and weekly charts. Taking the unpopular stand in not easy, but that is why most people loose money in the markets. As traders, we need to really think for ourselves and understand why we do what it is we do. It is in understanding our positions, where we come to really learn how to trade.

In the market sentiment numbers I follow, they moved up 2.3% this week to 45.6%. That is basically a neutral reading, but that does not mean that the market is going to stall. There is still room for it to gradually move higher and given its pattern of increasing sentiment a couple of percentage points per week, a continued move higher in prices and overall bullish sentiment is likely. I am looking for prices of S&P 1125 or higher in the weeks to come and the Dow, I see moving up to 11,700 or higher. We will just have to wait and see how it all turns out and how much higher if any we go, but that is the likely path of prices at this time.

A lot of people are calling for a market crash and that might come, but I don’t think it will just quite yet. I will let everyone know when that time will come, so stay turned if you care to know my opinion on market direction.

I missed a couple of days trading this week, Wednesday and Thursday, but was able to trade on Friday. I had a lot of preparation to do before what some are calling for, “a long hard winter” in the mountains of Northern California.

My trades from Friday are below which was a pretty good day. I had only one small loss on the last trade, but picked up some nice moves before that making for a nice day.

If anyone has questions please feel free to email. I will more than happy to answer and or help you where I can. If you want formal training we can do that too, but if you just need a little free advise, I am open to helping those that ask for it. If you have Skype that is the best way to talk and if it can be handled through email that will work too. My Skype name is “SniperDayTrading”.

So enjoy the weekend and get outside while you still can, before the bit of Winter sets in.  Good Trading to all, Vince

P.S.   My indicators are not the trading method. They are only a tiny reflection of what I can show you. Their is a complete trading methodology behind every move and one that can be duplicated time and time again. In fact you can trade the Sniper Day Trading method without any indicators at all and do well.  We teach how to read price action in what ever time frame you trade, but have a set of three main time frames we start out in depending on volume and volatility. This chart is the smallest one of the three but I have a unique way of integrating them all so it really becomes just one chart.

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Major Index’s Move up Sharply, to no surprise

Tuesday, October 5th, 2010

Today is Tuesday October 5th and the major index’s move up sharply, to no surprise as we saw big gains with the Dow being up 191 points and the S&P around +22 points.

Just a quick update on my trading today, as I did very well, but had a stumbling block to get over first. I was up against my daily loss limit, as I got caught in the 7 am West Coast flurry. I did not check for what news was coming out, so that is my first mistake and I did not get my automatic stop in place as the market went against me. Luckily, that was only a 2.50 point loss and not anything worst. So, I gave myself one pass on the mishap to try and come back and I did, all gains after that, for a combination of around 6 net S&P points and 10 points from the bottom. Chart below.

Today’s move was no surprise to me and I welcomed it. Yesterday, one level was broken and I pointed that out, as the second one that was needed to confirm held strong yesterday and even acted as a strong spring board as prices moved off the price I quoted to the tick and we have not looked back since that 1127 S&P low from yesterdays market. Today’s gap looked like it was not one of those that was going to come back and it didn’t.

We are likely to see higher prices in the days to come. As we broke above the long term weekly resistance that was so strongly established from years back. We will likely keep pushing on the uptrend for a while as we get closer to the election. I believe somewhere around 1220 or so was the numbers on the S&P I was looking for this year.

The market has climbed “The Wall of Worry” to a tee and I am sure their are many who can not figure this market out. It constantly does what they don’t expect it too, which is exactly my point.

If the market was always easy to figure out, it would no longer offer the opportunities that it currently does. So be encouraged, when you get their, you will be apart a very small group of people who can consistently pull money out of the market on a regular basis. The thing to do is, get their, easier said than done.

It is possible, to make it into that small group, but it does take a few things that could take you several years to uncover. That is what it usually took all the great traders of today to get where they are.

Is their a way to cut down on the length of time it takes? Yes, I believe so. So many traders go from trading system to system, always looking for what does not really exist. If you trade a trading system or are pursuing such your efforts could be better spent looking into how to read the market. Trading systems usually fail, where as a trading method is very different. Their is so many facets to learning market behavior that any and all time spent here is and will never be a waste of time.

If traders would learn about these three things, “Time – Space – Energy” and how that relates to the stock market, you will be miles ahead. Back to previoius point, trading systems will most often fail, because the market rarely stays the same. It can go through long periods of consistent behavior and then move on to something else. Constantly curve fitting parameters seems like it will work until you start applying it to real trading. If you don’t know why the price is moving (space) then you are only left to guess as to its next move. If you don’t allow for time into the equation, you will often be to soon or to late with your entries and you won’t know why. If you fail to equate the importance of stored energy, you never know how long and far the market is likely to travel.

Anyone who get a handle on the above three elements “Time -Space and Energy as it relates to the stock market, will be able to build for themselves a long lasting trading business that will not be subject to the common elements that cause traders to fail.

I do teach such these things in my course and mentoring program. This is not a big pitch, but it just is what it is.  Try and build your trading business or pursuits on a strong foundation like the one I mentioned above. Pursuing, something that will tell you when to buy and sell only, and that is the key, only, is not going to help you in the long run. You will be trading dependent, instead of independent.

Point yourself in the right direction and spend your trading time towards lasting solid trading principles.  If you need some idea’s or just want some free advise, email me, I will point you in the right direction. If you want more than that, then we can talk, but make your time count while pursuing your dreams. That way, you will always be inching closer and closer to fulfilling it.

Good Trading to all, Vince

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First part of the break shows up as S&P 1131 is taken out

Monday, October 4th, 2010

Today is Monday, October 4th, 2010. Just a short post here today with a break in the price hitting one of the main breaks, but bouncing off the second more important support point.

Last week I mentioned to numbers, 1131.25 and 1127.25 as being important trigger points for a market that is about to change direction. We hit the first one short as we went through it today and moved on down to the second one and bounced up off that one to the tick. The market moved up about 7 S&P points off that key area as we will just have to wait and see how tomorrow will handle that important 1127 number.

Their is not a lot more say about it, but trade with dominant trend and down worry to much about the rest. If you are a positional player, you have a good head start on what could be a large decline. Confirmation will come if the 1127 number is broken and we close under it.

Today we did pull back up at the close as a lot of traders were anticipating a sharp sell off I am sure.

In today’s trading I started around 10:30 a.m West Coast and took it into the close with a key position I was pretty sure was going to hold on and fulfill. My last trade came in around 11:34 am West Coast with a long position in the S&P’s and I added on three more times for what I call a T-3 trade. I don’t do to many of these lately, but I felt pretty strongly about the market not selling off into the close and I was right. If I was wrong,  I would have had a break even day.

I was pretty sure we were going to close coming off the low. I can’t tell you how I knew that, but I let my trading method tell me. The price action told me the likely path of prices and I listened. I did not like some of it, because I held through some moves that took me back to almost break-even when I had over two points of profit very quickly. I elected to hold for the bigger move.  The market was coming back very deeply against profit I normally would have booked, but I had in my mind that we would see the closing prices that came late in the session. That is why I added on at low risk spots along the short way up to my overall target.

Well, tomorrow is another day and I don’t know how I will play that action, but today, starting late in the session, I did not have a lot to work with, but I made due with what I was their.

Equity chart of trades below.  Until next time, Good Trading to all.  Vince

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Alert – Stock Market at Critical Levels

Friday, October 1st, 2010

Today is Friday, October 1st, 2010 and the markets did a great job in holding up as a lot of bears may be getting a bit nervous holding their shorts over the weekend.

Let me start out right now, I do not know which way this market is going to go with its next move. Many times the stock market has already tipped its hand and reading the move is really very easy.

It would appear that a break is in order, given the large run up and basing we have seen over the last two weeks or so. That has been the markets M.O. of the past and it is certainly possible again here this time around, but let me give you just a moment of pause.

Reading the market many times can not be done until something has happened. At this point nothing has happened that would say the market is going to drop. So the logical conclusion is wait until something has shown which way the future direction will take us over the next few weeks. It is very possible to do this and I have done it in all the major turns of the market of recent memory. Its not that I am so good at reading the market, anyone can do it;  you just have to know the language.

If you go to a foreign country, would you expect to be able to speak and read the language as you get off the plane.  How about after a few weeks or even months?  I don’t think that is realistically possible. The same is true when traders try and read the markets. It takes time. When you see and analyze price patterns again and again, you will see that certain characteristics are present in all of them. Since the stock market is factual in nature, meaning it mirrors the same type of price patterns or behavior across all time frames, you can learn the language that will bring you home, “trading for a living”.  A fractal Stock Market gives opportunities to all participants no mater what their style. The point here is, reading the market will open doors and give you the ability to write your own ticket.

So, back to the point. The market is sitting on cliff. That cliff will either be a stepping stone to yet a higher mountain, or it will be the catalyst for the tipping point over the edge it now sits on.

A couple of days ago, I wrote about the stock market having an inside day and that the volatility coming out of that inside trading day was going to produce big price movement. I did mention that we could possibly see two inside days together and that would create even more power and pressure once things got going. We have just seen two inside days but they are staggered. We came out of the first one violently, first to the upside and then quickly to the downside, + 100 points on the Dow and then down -200 points in a matter of a couple of hours. Today we saw the second inside day and yet again creating pressure for the next move.

A break of today’s lows at 1134.50 first and then on too yesterdays lows just after that of 1131.25 will produce a multi hundred point loss in the Dow and dozens of S&P points in just the first few days of breaking those levels. (my opinion only) (this is not investment advise)

If you know what is their, you would understand. What is their is, sell orders. They are parked there like automobiles in parking lot, just sitting there, waiting. If you get a few whales to push it over the edge they are all going to go off and it will induce mass selling.

On the other hand, everyone is looking for this market to roll over after putting in a reversal day yesterday, they are just waiting like it is a for gone conclusion. It very well may be that it will crack and I said I did and do not currently have a strong opinion one way or another right now at this time, but I believe we need confirmation to get this one right for sure, is all I am saying.

Their is a chance we can still rally from here. It sure would catch everyone by surprise. The sentiment numbers still have bullish tones to it at only 43% bullish right now. Also given the fact that the first 4 trading days of the month are traditionally very strong. You can go back to 1930 and see a very consistent pattern of this being true. Call it human nature, but it is a fact that a lot of buying comes in at the first few trading days of the month. So, lets just see what the market is telling us on Monday first before we take the ride down. Once we see it, we will then know what the trading bias will be, in the days and even weeks to come.

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In today’s trading I had a nice easy day picking up a some nice trades. A few small scalp trades and one nice trend trade for 4 + points but only small size. It all adds up and made for a nice finish to a good week. I had good gains all week except one day of flat returns. I have been trying to change up the screen shots I post and am not sure what I will be showing in the weeks to come, but I don’t always want to show the same thing. In the mean time I was just showing my equity chart and not my trades. I am still thinking about how I will post future progress, but today I will show just a clean chart, no indicators in a different size tick chart. I will come up with something new, but don’t know what yet. today’s trades below.

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