Archive for September, 2010

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Stock Market puts in Reversal Day

Thursday, September 30th, 2010

Today is Thursday, September 30th 2010 and the market looks like it put in a reversal day.

The Dow was up over 100 points just after the open as the buying kicked in from yesterdays inside trading day. The S&P was up similarly and just before 7am, the high for the day was hit. The market quickly filled the gap and then some as the drop did not stop until we saw 200 points shaved off the top in the Dow and 20 points off the S&P.

Today’s closing position was very important as it showed weakness into the close, putting in what I call a reversal day. That is not usually a good sign and we could see a break down coming either in tomorrow market, (Friday). I will give a few parameters that will show which way it is going to go.

Currently, we are still OK, but at any big daily turning point the market is always going to get tricky. This is part of that trickiness being played out.

I will be watching two numbers tomorrow, both to downside, to see it we will hold or not. The first one is today’s low at 1131.25 and the next one is the low set two days ago, at 1127.25.  Both of those will be your clue. The market is currently sitting on a major tipping point. I mentioned about the major resistance overhead and we saw that played out today. Now we will see if the downside support will hold. If those numbers get broken, you will see a big wave of selling come into the market. It is very likely that it will last a few weeks and take the market to as low as 1082 on the S&P.  There is support around that number, as we will be set with a whole new set of conditions.

Under normal conditions, the market is likely to sell off and break the numbers I mentioned above as the reversal day pattern is a good clue and we are likely to see the move down as mentioned, but I said normal conditions. We have not seen anything normal as far as economic reports and stock market behavior. A terrible report comes out and the market rally’s huge. That is why I don’t get to caught up in the reports, but they usually do have some connection to market behavior. That is normal and we are not normal right now. That is why we have to wait and see how the market is going to show us its hand. If the levels hold that is going to be great. It may just move against all the bears that are betting the farm on the coming drop.

So all one can do right now, is wait and see. I would be on guard for for the party to begin. The movement is going to start heating up, either way. Coming off the summer month slow down,  big players are coming out and they are getting ready to move the market.

OK, I was waiting for the sentiment numbers and I just got the delayed release. They are up 1.9% from last week and still in a fairly good range. Here is how it has gone over the last 5 weeks. We hit a market extreme at 29% bullish 5 weeks ago. That is a screaming buy signal for a move in the opposite direction. (trigger points 35% or less bullish and 55% or more bearish). This works in the opposite direction. So five weeks ago, the sentiment from the professional newsletter writers was only 29%.   I was screaming it for days before the move. Well, we are up 100 S&P points from then and at a major wall.

Back to the numbers; the last five weeks are as follows, 29% , 33.3%, 36.7%, 41.4% and today 43.3%.  That is not even in the middle of the range and has to be viewed as still showing some degree of strength.

One scenario would be, if we do move back down to the middle of the range, those numbers will again come off and get into another market extreme. The market sentiment will again shift to a minority position of bullishness and we could then have another large rally getting over this very large current resistance point.

I will likely know which way it is all going to go in the morning, Fridays new session. If nothing happens, we may have to wait until Monday, but we at least know exactly where we are and where the market is likely to go once it tips its hand, well that is how I see it.

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In today’s trading I took a few good trades and made up for yesterdays non performance. An equity trade chart below shows my results. Traded just 3 and then 2 contracts, but had a pretty good day. I missed all the move up and down as I came in as the market was finding its daily bottom. Just scalped my through the mess and was quiet satisfied. Looking forward to tomorrows session.

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Inside Day for Stock Market Today

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Wednesday, September 29th, 2010:

Today we saw an inside day for the Stock Market. What that means is the market traded between yesterdays high and low, but did not go past either. Thus, that would make today’s trading, “an inside day” or inside trading day.

What can you expect after you see a day like today?  The answer to that is increased volatility one way or another. Usually, the end of the trading range that gets  penetrated is where the new direction will take place.

The stock market has basically traded sideways in a large range for 8 trading days as of now. A break out above or below yesterdays high and low, will likely move the market significantly. We are sitting at very large major resistance overhead currently. If we get a break above, of which I am expecting, you will have room to run.

Given the time that has passed, allows for the market to gather strength to make its next move. If it continues to the upside, it is going to be a big advance. Their is an enormous amount of stops just above the current market. If you know how to read the market, you can see it. That is going to be the fuel to drive prices higher. It could come as soon as tomorrow Thursdays market, but it is possible we could see a second inside day, which would create that much more of an advance once it happens. I don’t remember when I saw two inside days back to back, but it is possible.

So, be prepared for a big move, one way or another. My views are as stated, UP.

In today’s and yesterdays trading, I did good yesterday trading only about 10 minutes on the early open, which was great. I loved the fast action and movement of the market. So much better than trading during slow market action. I picked up a few points and went out to do other things. Today, I had the same results. I did not have the time yesterday and or today to see the market for more than a few minutes and did pick up a few easy points early on, in minutes. I got a little daring and set a wide stop and left for the day, hoping we would close on the highs of the session. I don’t do that to often (rarely) and I could have picked a better time to try that, but, I gave it a shot and it did not work out. Gave back the early gains for the hopes of a 10-15 point move or better.

Yesterdays and today’s equity chart below. Until tomorrow, good trading to all.

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Learn to Scalp Trade and thrive in an kind of Market

Monday, September 27th, 2010

Monday:  September 27th, 2010

The market pulled back slightly today as we moved sideways digesting some of Friday’s gains. We saw new highs in the Dow on Friday as the bulk of that days gains came early on. Today was very quiet as we only had about a 7 point trading range for the day. I do see some additional weakness early on in tomorrow’s session down to at least 1130 to 1133 on the S&P futures. Currently we are at 1139 as the evening Globex Market moves on.

If the general market were to fail, this is the area that it would do it in, but I don’t believe we are done on the upside as of yet. Fridays rally was good, but we will need one more just like it to really get the shorts to throw in the towel.

The market sentiment suggests that the rally can continue as we did move up away from the bullish signal generated weeks ago. Currently I believe we are at 41% bulls. A neutral reading could be considered 45% and an extreme on the other side would be 55% bullish. We are a ways off from that, right now, which suggests that their is more room to run. As I wrote about in my last post on Thursday, the market was at strong resistance and its still really their. One more strong day will get a massive short covering rally and some general buying interest I am sure.

We are coming into the elections soon and that does have some bearing on the direction of the market for many reason’s of which their are to many to go into, but I do believe history would suggest that the stock market will do well leading up to the elections.

Some are calling for an October Surprise and I have heard of the an interesting date of 10-10-10. That surprise could be almost anything, but it will likely help the current elected officials to stay in power and negate the ground swell of political unrest that is going on in the country. I am not sure on its effects on the market, but I could only speculate that it would not be good. So, maybe we quickly go higher and then shake out all the build up ?  Its just to soon to know. What we do know is the trend is up and until proven otherwise we have to give the market the benefit of the doubt. The market will break down if prices get past 1160 on the S&P cash, so we have lot of room right now as we are pushing the other end of the envelope so to speak.

In today’s trading, things went OK as I had a few scalp trades early on with a few small losses after that. I took 8 trades in total as some were scaled out and one of my losses were two fold as I added on and soon their after got out. Today I did much better than Friday, as that day was just a scalp day for sure. If you missed the early move in the market which I did, all that was left was the small crumbs the market left behind, which is fine for me as if you know how to scalp trade, you can trade any kind of market any time. You see, a scalper can always trade for more of the move as a swing trader is not able to scalp a narrow market, so he is out of luck. He may end up several days underwater and unless he has a good self image about himself and his trading he is going to have a hard time overcoming the mental side of his trading.

Some of a traders biggest problems are in their mind. If they could only stop the self sabotoge that goes on at times and learn to be patient to wait for good method trades, they could do better. But that is easier said than done. A scalp trader knows how to pinpoint his entries to a very small entry area. If the trade does not perform as it should, a good scalp trader will get out and wait for another opportunity. You always have to have the advantage and or trading edge.  With out that, you will only be waiting for what the market will do you instead of what you will do to it. The thing is you don’t want to get hit or banged around. Like a running back in football. He tries to slide in and out of defenders without getting hit and or tackled. Being evasive is a strategy and one that works the same for the  experienced scalp trader. You want to get in and out with a quick easy profit. One point on the S&P is a good starting point. This should give you about at a minimum a one to one trade ratio, win/loss. Their are not a lot of traders who can trade the S&P with only a one point stop and be successful on a regular basis.

My stops are about that or less as I get the move going my way and move up my stops and or get out before I take a hard stop of more ticks. The key is getting in at good entries that go your way right away, that way your trade management is easier to stay on top of. I believe if a trader wants to be well rounded he needs to be able to scalp trade his way through his market. Doing so, will put the odds in your favor and allow you to maintain the trading edge. If the market starts to swing large point moves, you can roll with it while its their. See the forest through the tree’s and learn how to scalp trade your way to your dreams and goals. This is the hardest type of trading to master, but for those who can, you will never look back.

Best trading to all my readers,  Vince

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Trading Gap in Today’s Market

Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

Today is Thursday, September 23rd, 2010 and the markets gave back a little during the session with the Dow off  -76 and the S&P -9 points.

The market pulled back overall after a gap open lower. We did see a nice controlled, orderly move back up to close the trading gap after the open. Prices on the Dow and S&P, came back up to the tick and closed the gap that was created from the lower open. That is so very typical and usually present good trading opportunities in the opposite direction of the opening gap.

We are still seeing stiff resistance that has recently been talked about coming off the 10,800 Dow area and the 1140 S&P area. If we can break out over that, we will likely see higher prices, but this area will be very difficult to overcome.  I know that traders and speculators who are bearish are really drawing this area out as their “Line in the Sand”, and rightly so.

Today’s trading went fine. I waited for the afternoon session to get anything started today. The market was already on its way back down the other side of today’s high. There was more room in a few of the trades but I just played it safe early on. Putting on the last trade raised the stakes a bit but it worked out fine. The reason I don’t like taking late trades is their is not any time to come back from a loss. The very safest way to play that is, only take a late session trade if you are comfortably ahead on the session and if you trade multiple contracts, its a good idea to lighten the size a little. The best thing that can happen is you make a little more. The worst thing is you drop back on a little and still end the day with a nice day.

Today’s trades above.  I only have a straight chart, no indicators of any kind. I might be putting these charts up for now, but I am still thinking about it. I often show how a few indicators respond to my trading decisions to give traders an idea on the timing of it and that it can be traded accordingly, but I trade the price first, always have. The trading method I trade is one based on price action and that is always first. Traders should train their eyes, mind and emotions on just such, to best be served by the markets. Trading indicators are a reflection of what the price is doing. So, if you can understand the hidden language of the price and find a way to harness that on a consistent basis, you will be doing yourself a favor. Bringing a few indicators in to see how it confirms or denies your trading concepts is a good place to start.

If you need a complete trading method, I have that in Sniper-Day-Trading. If you have your own, keep working on it to best help yourself identify the price movements and try to understand why price is doing what it does. Their are reasons for just about every major move in the market. If you can uncover those reason’s you will be making progress.

Good Trading to all readers !    Vince

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Do you have a daily equity Stop Out Point

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

Today is Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010 and the market is trying to hold onto its gains and doing a pretty good job of it as the Dow was off 22 points and the S&P minus 4 points for today’s session.

The market has been running into that resistance I wrote about in Mondays blog. The last two days confirms that this area as stated is solid resistance as it is having trouble making continued headway.Two things, we are either building for pull back, just under today’s lows or we are regrouping for another assault. The night trading is showing some gains right now, but that does not really mean to much right now. Tomorrow we will know more about future direction. If we get over this area with conviction, we will continue the climb to the numbers I wrote about on Monday and a few weeks ago, so far so good.

I was on the road yesterday, but did trade on the open just before I left and lucky me, the one day I decide to get up for exact early open, I get a stop out day. I was down 3.25 points for the first part of the session and called it a day. I normally would have tried to wait a while, but I did not have time since I was leaving. That is not good in that when you have restraints, it can effect how you make decisions and it did for me. I would have been OK, if the market was more normal with its opening active price action, but it was slower than dirt, no movement. I got no follow through on my trades and was not in scalp mode so I kept getting stopped out with small losses.  Another mistake I did look at what news was coming out. If I did, I would have seen that Tuesday was Fed Day.  Many traders don’t even trade on that day, because the action is all very different, and it was. Usually you will see some activity in the early session and then it will grind to a halt as  the announcement gets closer to 11:15 A.M. West Coast.  It picked up nicely after that but I was done and gone for the day.

Today’s trading was back to normal and I was back too. I made up for yesterdays mishap and now, we go forward. My trades are below for the day.

I believe every trader needs to have a daily stop out point. It is essential for long term survival. If you don’t a 3 or 4 point daily loss, can turn into a 7-10 point daily loss, who knows. Don’t give it chance. Cut it off and come back tomorrow. That takes discipline and is what you need to survive. If you can’t do it, you need to find it within yourself to stay in control. It is easy to lose control while trading and it happens to traders all the time. Don’t you be one of them. Their are going to be losing days on occasion, that is a fact that we all have to deal with, but they don’t have to happen that often. If you are a big swing trader, you will at times close your session with more losing days because of lack of opportunity, with the hopes of big winners later on as the trades come together in future sessions.

I can’t handle that. I like to come out on top as often as I can for the day and that is why I trade the way I do. Their are so many opportunities during the course of a day, it is not to hard to snatch a few points and get out. You can see in today’s chart above, there were plenty of potential trades to take and things were not even that busy today, I would call it an OK day as far as price movement. If you try and trade all day, it is too easy to make mistakes and get sloppy. That is where traders make it in the morning and give it all back in the afternoon. It is because they are no longer fresh.  Traders need to take lots of breaks if you are going to trade all day. To keep that pace up, day after day, week after week is to much to expect and as stated, you will not usually make any more than if you traded for 2-4 points a day.

A trader who can average 4  S&P points a day will make 80 points a month. That is a lot. Three points a day is 60 points a month and even only 2 points a day is still 40 points a month. The key to that is average. That is why I do like to shoot for bigger days when the market is willing, to make up for a daily stop out day, like yesterday. In the end, maintaining a high monthly average is what you want and not getting greedy is the key.  For me 2-4 points a day makes the most sense, with the occasional windfall day 2-3 times a month. A trader could not ask for anything more than that in my estimation.  How about you?

Good Trading to all. Vince

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See Yourself as the Trader You Hope To Be

Monday, September 20th, 2010

Today is September 20th and we saw more follow through as the Dow was up +145 and the S&P +16.75.

This was the likely path I had talked about a few weeks back. In my September 3 post titled, “The Market Looks and Feels Strong”, I had said that we were likely to go much higher in the coming weeks. At the time we were approaching some key resistance around the S&P 1100. As stated, if we get over the 1100 area, we are likely to go much higher around 1160 on the S&P and at least +400 points more on the Dow. We are approaching the Dow target, which would be around 10,800 but the S&P area is still a ways off. In any case, I think over all we will still see higher prices, but, we are at and or near “Major” resistance again. This resistance area is not anything you can see from any recent support or resistance area formed. This stuff is long term and is a force that needs to be overcome to get to the next level. One step at a time.

Seeing where we have come from:   We have come a long way. The last days of this August, I was saying that we are going to move out big. That was the only likely way for the market to move. The market sentiment was so bearish and so few people we bullish, that became the likely directional move, up.  I know I posted and posted about it, saying this was going to happen. It was not popular at the time and I could even feel it myself, but I knew better following the market sentiment as a excellent gauge of future direction. Well at the time, the market was taking its sweet time building a bottom base and it seemed like forever, but after a week of going nowhere, it finally happened. That was three weeks ago and here we are almost 100, that’s right, 100 S&P points higher.

This general area is the next barrier to higher prices yet. The resistance is very very strong in this area. It would be normal and natural for the market to pull back any time from here. At the same time, all of us can not rule out the possibility of blasting through this area to a final move destination. I can mark the Dow area maybe a little better and I see it around 11,500. If the market is able to get over the coming resistance area described, we will likely see this 11,500 area on the Dow in the coming weeks. I had said before that the S&P final target area may be around 1245, but I think that is a little high. It looks more like S&P 1225.

I would bet that this new excitement for higher equity prices may be enough to get everyone on board and could create a new trigger point for the downside, but that is still way off from now.

Three weeks ago at the bottom, the market sentiment numbers I was talking about “Investors Sentiment”, was at a screaming buy signal area of 31.7, if my memory serves me.  (35 is usually a trigger point)  The next week we moved up a few %, followed by the same the next two weeks to where we are now around 37%. That is still a very strong reading indicating more to come. The new numbers come out after the close of tomorrows session and can be seen for free on Thursday evening. The direct link is in the resource section of my website for anyone interested.

The chart above, is my trade for today. They are not to exciting, since I missed the big move early on. I was going to wait out the two hours in the middle of the market, but I did not leave the scene and was just looking on. I got a little board and took a few trades before I wanted to. I am trying to not trade during the 9-11 am area or 12 to 2 New York time area. The volume is so slow and the movement so flat most of the time. It is just so trying, like in my patients. I do not like to wait. That is the type of trader I am.

Ever trader has strengths and weaknesses. I know what my strengths are, as they are outlined in my trading method. My weaknesses are waiting. I don’t like it. I like to see what I want in a trade, take it and move on to the next one. In a fast market, that is just what you usually get. I thrive in that environment. In a slow market you have to wait and wait. It does me no good. I am better off to get out of the house and do something else. In fact that is the best thing to do. Fresh air does wonder for the body and in the mountains where I live, their is plenty of it.

Anyway, trading during the active time zones best serves me, but I to often slip back into my old habits as I most often miss the open.  Sooner or later I will get it. If you are a trader, trying to find your way, you would be best served to stay away from the 12-2 pm N.Y time area.

I still got a few points today, the lower side of my daily goal and that is really OK. I know I can do better, and likely will in the coming sessions. Being optimistic and confident about what you know you can get from the markets is very important. We all need to see ourselves as we expect to be, not as we are. That allows for growth and improvement.

Until next post, Vince at Sniper Day Trading, over and out.

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Trade Positioning – Key to Profit

Saturday, September 18th, 2010

September 18th, 2010;

Day trading is not about predicting market direction, or even about winning trades. Day trading is about continually positioning yourself on the right side of the market so you can take profit from the market movement.

Winning trades are a result from proper trade positioning. Trade positioning has to do with time. As time passes, the price gets into its natural position to move up or down, depending on “Time & Trade Position”.

The market has been very slow this week, trading in a narrow range. Always expecting large extended 3 to 5 points moves is not always practical when following the S&P Emini’s. They do happen, but not that often lately. In order to catch those, you have to stalk and wait for the move several hours. That is fine if you have the time and patients, but I usually don’t.

I trade in three time frames. The smallest one is the one I usually show in my blog and below here today. It is the zoomed in view I need, especially when going for small moves. If you know where to enter based on key trade positioning, you can pretty easily pick up some nice trades. They won’t all be winning trades, but getting out when you loose the trading edge is key to keeping your losses small. You don’t have to come back very far if you only take a two or three tick loss on the trade. This is good trade management.

At a minimum, I trade for a one to one (1 to 1 trade ratio) when in scalp mode. It may not look exciting, but taking a 3 tick profit on the emini’s with three contracts, still adds up to $100 after commission. I really like trading for at least one (1) point or more but it does not always come. I know at times I can get more on the move, but giving nothing back does have its benefits.

This is not the only type of trading I do, but it serves its purpose in a narrow range bound market.  When a trending market with multiple point moves come back in style, I will be their. For many traders, they do not know how to handle this type of market, as they continually keep getting stopped out as the losses pile up. Knowing how to trade for the bigger moves is great, but if the market goes dead, basically like these days and you don’t know how to adjust, you can get hurt.

Trade hunting then becomes a favorite past time sport, as trader are looking for and seeing things that aren’t their.  Knowing how to trade any market environment is essential to a traders longevity, in my opinion. A fast moving large directional trading day is great, to clean up on big moves, where you can ride it out for excellent gains. If those moves are not their, you can always resort to scalping a few ticks here and their. With this type of trading, I usually have a safety net of 5 ticks under me. I don’t often get stopped out at the full stop, but if the trade starts to work against me, I will try and close it out at -1 tick ,-2 ticks  or even, before I fall the full amount. On the flip side, taking only 1 or two ticks on a trade is much better than a loss.  The hard stop needs to far enough away so not to get a double fill. Moving your stop up as the trade starts to work for you is also very important to minimize losses and is something I do on a regular basis.  Again, this is exercising good trade management.

When Scalp trading, you need to have the trade start working for you right away. Their is really no exceptions on that. If you start to take heat after entry and that can be -2 or 3 ticks, you did not enter in the right place or time. It should pop in the direction of your order entry right away. How can a trader get the price to do that?  Its understanding how to capitalize on “trade positioning and trade time”, the two go together.

Learning how to trade price action is the key. Trade positioning and time are components of price action. When you understand why the price is doing what it is doing, then you can and will be positioned as a trader to exploit key area’s that you know will have some market movement. This process is the same as for when trading for 3-5 or even 10 point moves, but scalp trading looks to take the quick profits without letting the price come back against you.  A scalp trader can always learn to let the moves run and capture more while risking so small on any one trade. That is not always the case for other types of traders as there stops are often in the 3 point range or higher. You will end the day at a loss because of limited opportunity taking such losses as this, something I am not willing to do.

Below is a testimonial from a recent student who really seems to be getting it. I am very hopeful for him to make it as he has a great understanding of just what I wrote above.  Under that are my trades for the last three days, daily goals + met on all days scalping for small gains with high accuracy, Sniper Day Trading.

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Hi Vince,

Thanks for the feedback.  I am enjoying the scalping approach for now.  For some
reason it is suiting me.  However, I see the benefit of going to the T-2 screen
and hope to practice that in the near future.

Your end of day videos were great and helpful as usual!  They are probably my
best training tool because I am able to compare your trades with  what I did and
saw during the day.  Also, a video is much better than just screen captures due
to the additional explanation you provide.  Thanks for taking the time to do
those!!

I also appreciate the Silver, Gold and Oil charts.  I think I now see how to set
up the charts for the other markets I am watching.

I've been at this for a short time but I am feeling more and more confident
every day.  It is uncanny how well your method picks up the moves.  I have never
felt so hopeful than I have with your method.  I appreciate that it is a method
and not just a system.  Having a structure to work from first makes all the
difference to me rather than just following rules for getting in and out and not
really being abole to see the big picture to understand why a trade didn't work.

Thanks for your great coaching and mentorship in this process.

Blessings.

David
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Scalp Trading for a Living

Tuesday, September 14th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, September 14th, 2010 as the S&P 500 was flat at 1121 and the Dow down slightly at 10,526.

The overhead resistance in the Dow seems to be putting a lid on things for now as the market traded off its highs and more closer to the lows for the day. It was the late sell off that did it. The last 20 minutes of the day brought in some fast selling. That can be said to be the smart short term money. It is likely to have follow through effects into Wednesdays session at least initially, so lets watch for that on the open. The futures market is off a little right now anticipating this continued move, so lets see what tomorrow brings.

Above, are my trades for today, while I was in “Sniper Scalp Mode”. That means I am looking to take what the market is willing to give up quickly. I am not interested in giving it back for a second or third move higher. If their is another move higher, I look to take it at key entry points as shown on the screen.

The screen above is actually my T-2 trending screen, I have another trade screen that is actually my T-1 Scalp Mode Screen, but I think since I have been showing my trades for over the last year, I have gotten used to trading both modes out of this screen. I have a bit more going on, but I don’t show it as what I do show is what I can show, if that makes any sense.  Giving traders an idea of what is possible is important when trying to decide if this is something for you. Many other vendors on the internet do not always show how there program performs. I am glad that I am able to do different for those who want to see how things perform under the “Sniper Day Trading Method”.

I have said this before many times, but the indicators shown are a “Reflection of My Trading Method”, not the other way around. I have a complete trading methodology behind my trading. The indicators above do mirror the trading methodology, which is second not first. So, when you learn how to trade this method, you will be learning how to trade, period.

This is not a system that tells you to go long or short, although you could make it do that if you want to I guess. Their are two trading manuals covering 160+ pages of detailed instruction on how to trade, in addition, DVD training video’s and most important, ongoing mentoring and training by me. It is the understanding that we are not trying to pick market tops and bottoms, but looking for the easy and obvious trades in the middle or along the way.

If scalp trading is your thing and you want to get a quick 1 point or so here and their, then you can do that and it could be done in this screen or my traditional Scalp Screen, not shown.  If you want to trade the bigger moves, you most certainly can do that and keep you entry stops down to 4-5 ticks looking for 3 to 1 risk/reward ratio trades or better. In the above chart you can see their were three major turning points for the portion of the screen shown, all for large multiple point returns.

A trader can learn when to trade the bigger moves and when to go for small targets, both have great value. This way, you won’t be at a disadvantage when the market changes up on you. Many traders only know how to handle one type of market, what do you do when the whole trading environment changes? You could be left behind or try and force trades.

Keeping it simple, the one screen above, can do both as displayed. Their are two other charts on this one layout screen which are not shown. This gives you an integrated look at all the market, where this chart is the zoomed in view of what is happening. This allows us to pinpoint our entries, Sniper Style, to keep our draw downs to a minimum.

I truly believe anyone who wants to learn how to trade apart from indicators will get their fill right here. You won’t need to look anywhere else as learning how to trade the price will be a skill and talent that will stay with you for the rest of your life. You can apply this method to your 401 K, long term money, Mutual Funds, Stocks, and certainly other futures markets. The time frames are all relative to the trading instrument and the level of risk you can accept. Since futures trading is highly leveraged, 10 to one for overnight position trading on the S&P emini’s and up to 50 to one for day trading. To use this type of leverage, you have to be right. Small gains can turn into large returns when on target. That is what you can learn with this method.

I don’t often tout my trading method, but it is effective and very consistent. Each individual trader needs to be patient and disciplined to execute it. If you don’t have those qualities, you need to find it before you put money on the line. My free E-Book may help those willing to better concentrate and take your method or system trades, but if you are in need of learning a “Price Action” driven trade method this is the place.

I enjoy teaching others what I do. It has been a passion of mine as long as I can remember. It has made me a better trader and look forward to the day when I am trading 100 lots. ( that’s 100 emini contracts / 5 million leveraged dollars) To get to that level will likely take 1-2 years of slowly increasing contract size.  I have to have precision timing and unshakable confidence and am building that up every day that goes forward.

If you have questions or interest email me. If you want the free E-Book, just  fill in your name at the page request top left corner of any page.  You won’t get a lot of hounding follow up emails from me when doing so, that is not me, but I am here only to help those interested.

Wishing all my readers the very best !      Vince

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Market Moves Right to Called Targeted Resistance Area

Monday, September 13th, 2010

Today is Monday, September 13th, 2010 and the market moves right to the called targeted resistance from Friday’s post.

We moved up 81 points on the Dow and +12 on the S&P 500 with the initial Target called for the Dow at +80 points for today’s session. As the market opened, the Dow traded up exactly to the target resistance area and backed off a touch with another attempt for a little higher just behind it. It didn’t go far as a short term top was being put in. The market traded back from there 78 points as Dow 10,550 was now clearly defined as short term resistance.  Many I am sure thought that the market was going to trade off its high and stay or move to the lower end of the session lows. That did not happen and we showed strength into the close.

I am not making any calls for tomorrow, but just focus on a few market turns long or short, which ever way the it turns out. I do still expect higher prices in the coming weeks as I have previously laid out in prior postings.

As a trader, we don’t care which way the moves go, but as long as they go. Slow volume can be hard to wait out. That is why I really don’t want to trade the 9-11 am West Coast time period. It can wear on a traders resolve not to mention stop you out far to often because of no movement and or participation. I usually don’t have a problem hitting my targets during that time, but it is harder and takes a lot longer. That should be enough of a reason to take the easy road and trade the first 60-90 minutes of the session where the volume and movement is.

I am speaking to myself as I often do. Much of what I have to say may seem like it is for my readers, and it is, but it is really first for me. I have to be my own trading coach as there is no one else but me. This has served me well and has given me a reason to keep up with my writing and postings. Seeing the end result of my trading, in somewhat an ongoing journal is and has been helpful.

Their will come a day, pretty soon, that I will be trading many more contract than the usual 3 -4 contracts I trade now. I am not in a hurry, but it is something I had planned to do. Averaging just 2 points per day minimum and increasing your size along with account size, can really add up fast. It can yield a consistent trader over a million a year in about 1 years time and that trader can be taking money out of the market all along the way, with just 2 emini points average per day. Some days may be a bit more, to make up for days that are “Stop Out” days, but it is possible and I plan on doing it. My idea is to make  live video recordings of it and put each days session on DVD, so there is a log of exactly how I did it.  That is the long term goal but that won’t happen until I can change a few things, with myself.

Below is a screen shot from today first 2 hours. I have the “Sniper Shots” marked on the screen as those area’s are the low risk area’s to enter, long and short. You can see entering and not have the market come back on you is the desired goal. That is what happens every day when you know how and where to place your orders.  That way, you can keep your risk down to a minimum, usually around 1 point. Many times the market gives 3-5 points on a turning point and at times a lot lot more, but we don’t need to hit every market turn in the day and capture all the tradable points their are to become profitable. Being satisfied with 2-4 emini points is really more than enough, as I usually strive for closer to 4 but less is always OK. Its OK, because this takes the pressure off.  I give myself permission to make less than 4 points. It takes the pressure off and allows you to walk away if things or you don’t feel right. Forcing the trades, never helps anyone as mistakes will surely follow.

In today’s trading I hit one point in the morning session and 2 trades in the afternoon session for 1.50 points total for 2.50 points on the day. Scalping for a point here and their is quite OK, as two points adds up very quickly, + 1 / +1 = +2. Simple math.

P.S.  If you are first time reader, I teach how to trade from reading the price action of the market. That gives us these exact same points as on the screen below as well as all the other postings and video’s. The price always precedes the move, in other-words, the price reflect what you see in the indicators. I teach how to read the price apart from all  indicators including ones not shown, which will give a trader his or her points for the day.

Good Trading to all !

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Emotions and Day Trading

Friday, September 10th, 2010

Today is Friday, September 10th, 2010 and we saw the Dow up 47 points and the S&P December Futures up +7.25 points.

We continue to slowly move higher as today was a very quiet trading day. We saw most futures traders in the financials switch to the next front month as I mentioned in my blog yesterday. Traders need to be aware of these days as it could end up costing them money. Mark your calenders and know when that day is coming so you won’t be surprised.

Today’s trading was pretty uneventful for me. I wasn’t even going to trade, but late in the session I did decide to engage. I had only a few trades and picked up a small sum. I did not pressure myself with hitting my daily goal, because of the slow low volume day. I missed all of the early session and started to watch things during the slow time of day. Later on, it did pick up, but only a touch. Anyway, I have a video of the whole session showing the turning points and the new contract month for the S&P, ESZ10.

Their is not a whole lot as far as direction and trend that I have not already said in recent days. I do see some competing area’s of leadership when compared to the Dow and the S&P. The S&P has cleared some overhead resistance that it needed to get over and it has done that the last two days, while the Dow has not. About 80 Dow points higher their is some invisible resistance to overcome, so we will see on Monday if we trade to that area and then take a breather.

It was good to see the market close near the highs of the session, a bonus for Mondays open. The closing days position has a lot to do with future direction as it relates to the daily and even the weekly charts. Depending on the previous price action, a close near the highs of the day, will tend to have bullish tones for the next session. Many traders take their Que from this type of closing position and will have orders pending the open of the next session. That leads to buying and often times, buying begets more buying, (short covering and regular interest).

Going forward, I do believe the bias will be to the upside. I really should not get to caught up into figuring out every twist and turn in the daily and weekly charts. I do that because I know many people follow it and it does give me something to write about. It is very interesting to do so, but as day traders, we are really most concerned with the turns inside each day. Every day is a fresh start with no baggage before it. We need to leave yesterdays gains and or losses behind us and focus on what is in front of us. If any trader gets to preoccupied with past history, whether it is good or bad, it can be harmful to your current fresh start day.

Traders need not get giddy with large gains or depressed with losses. If you do, you will be working against yourself. Everyone is different and your excess emotions will get played out negatively against you. How do we guard ourselves against this emotion?  Decide now that you are a professional and then act in accord with what you feel this image best represents yourself.  Controlling trading emotions should be at the top of the list.

Next, I could think of bragging about one’s new title as “Day Trader”. It is an admired profession, but most people know that this is a very hard thing to master. By releasing the controllable emotion of excitement and hope for your new future to others, you work against yourself in ever realizing those dreams. The energy that gets released in the form of loosely sharing with others, takes power and energy away from you. One of the reasons and their are many, is, you create an image for yourself that may be hard to live up to. If things take longer or don’t work out the way you plan, you may find yourself  fibbing about your progress to keep up the image you created by loosely sharing and that creates a whole new set of problems.  In addition, the emotional high of sharing and releasing this emotion is in itself a form of gratification, which then reduces your resolve to make it all a reality.  It is sad to say, but that is the truth. This makes it ever so much more difficult to reaching those sought after goals. So decide now that you will keep your new venture close to the vest.

Emotion come in many forms. The ones I mentioned above are not easily identified by ourselves when we do it. It sometimes takes an outsider to point it out to us, because as mentioned, its not easy to see.

We are much more akin to hearing about the emotions of  “Fear & Greed”.  One can never over state those two. They make traders do things that they never thought they could do in a rational world, but once those two emotions latch on to you, watch out. If you can identify it ahead of time and that is what I am trying to do here today, we should just stop trading. That may be even if you are up on the day and especially down for the day. Usually, our trading only gets worst when you let these emotions out of the bag. Rather than go into it now, I need more time to better address those two. I have wrote about it before, but many months ago I am sure. My perspective has likely changed a little as I have a lot more input to add against the topic.

To recap, all successful traders need to see themselves as they want to be. “A professional Day Trader who earns his living or supplements is living from the financial markets”.  Maybe it would be a good idea to write down a few things that you need to change so that you can mold yourself into that description. It is different for everyone, but if we take this one step forward towards that end, we will be making progress and isn’t that what it is all about. We are all on this journey together, so you are not alone. I have many things I need to change to better meet that description myself. Even if financial goals are met, often, their are other area’s of self improvement that we know we should be addressing and that is progress one day at a time.

Good Trading to all and have a great weekend, Vince

P.S.  Do something fun before the weather changes !

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