Archive for August, 2010

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Market Turning Point Coming, Get Ready !

Tuesday, August 31st, 2010

Today is Tuesday August 31st, 2010 and I really think tomorrow is the day, we rally.

I have taken things a little on easy side lately, trying to enjoy the summer days as they are here. I have wanted to write and keep up with my blog, but the calling for time off was just a little greater. So, to those who are loyal followers, I apologize.

In today’s trading action, I was on pins and needles as we were coming into the close. I kid you not. I saw few things that told me, “if we did not rally up as we did, there was trouble for tomorrows open”. I remember it clearly, as these thoughts were traveling through my mind. I looked at everything and it all said, rally or die. We rallied at the close and I felt revealed.

The reason is, traders pick up on were the close of the day is. If it is on the lows, it sets the tone for many scenario’s. Program traders, Black Box traders and on and on. This would have had very negative signals for the coming weeks. There is a path down to S&P 945 and I did not want to see that happen. I am a long term “Bear”, just to let you know, if you didn’t already, but I just don’t think it is going to come when everyone else thinks it should.

We are going into the worst two months of the year historically, September and October. I can not tell you how many bad periods I have seen first hand with these two months as they are in-front of us. With that said, their is always the exception and what a better time then now for it.

This market has been very tricky lately in trying to fake out those who believe they have it figured out. It has waited to the very last hour of the very last day, to make a lasting impression on those who believe we are about to crack on down to lower levels from here. I tell you know, I could be wrong as I have stated before. We have not as of yet cracked as those who say we are going to, but have waited for the last 6 days in a very narrow trading range to either prove me right or wrong. It is just an opinion and is not going to change one dollar from my personal bottom line, but, I would like to get this call right in that I see everyone biting on the short trade right now and would like to be in the minority to better prove them wrong and share my insight why to those who follow my writings.

OK, I think you know I am short term bullish from here and am expecting a big rally as of tomorrow. I can’t see this going another day. It looks so right for a rally and or a crash. I can’t be blind to the fact I could have it wrong, even if I don’t think so. I always need to look to the other side. Even in a short term trade, you have to look to both sides. If you don’t, you could be blinded to what you want to see, rather than what actually is.

I made that one mistake today. I was tired in doing a phone session with a potential client and did not take a break, but just stayed at the screen and I started to see what I wanted to see. Almost like a mirage, and suddenly it appeared. In my delusion, I created a scenario of what I wanted to see, not what was. This can happen to any of us and it is not the first time or won’t likely be the last time.

By being over stretched and not fresh and or having little ability to exercise “The Power of Concentration” I am not surprised I tried to create a trade in my own mind. If you watch the video below, you will see the trade I was talking about. Looking at my trade indicators, you can clearly see that I really making a stretch for a long in the place I took that trade.

After I woke up from my slumber, I could see I was only dreaming. To take a long trade where I did, I must have been asleep. The other trades were OK, as they were all winning trades, but I could have done better there still. I did have to compensate for a bad entry by a  couple of ticks, which I don’t really like to do. I should not be complaining as I had 5 of 6 and ended up very nicely for the day. I had one loss for 5 ticks and multiple points profits. 

To finish up, I see this market has gone 6 days in a very small range and it is wound up so tight, it is just waiting to pop. The question is, which way. With the market sentiment so negative, I have to give the bias to the upside and say the surprise is going to come in with a big rally. I mentioned a few days ago that 1100 is strong resistance and we will likely trade up to that level pretty soon. Backing off from their a little is normal and a little expected, but if a break above 1100 S&P futures kicks in, we will see higher prices on top of that. So everyone knows what I am looking for, but will it happen. It is not the popular opinion right now and I am OK with that. Either way, I will make my daily goals when I trade because I will be reading current price action. That is the basis for my trading method. All trade indicators are secondary. That is a real big point and is exactly as stated. With that said, I am happy to have the trade indicators I use of which I only show a very small part of them as in the video.

I wish all my readers the very best. If anyone has comments or wants to ask questions I am very available to answer and would be glad to do so. Even if it is not about my trading method. Just ask and I will respond to you ASAP.

Vince

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Chart Pattern Showing Previous Resistance as Current Support

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

Today is Thursday, August 26th, 2010 and the markets pulled back into the consolidation zone as I call it, -75 on the Dow and 9.75 for the S&P futures.

Today we did pull back inside of yesterdays range and after all is said and done, the market needs to make a stand here and now. If we hold, we rally. If we break down tomorrow, there is no more grace for this market as the breaking point will have been reached.

That said, I am not without hope that this market will hold on. I could only be blowing in the wind, but until I see how we close tomorrow, I will hold any judgments off until that time. Getting the daily direction right, really does not mean anything to my day trading and I could get this wrong, but I will be sure to play the short term swings as that I am sure of what will happen. Moves in my direction, long and or short as the day unfolds its hand.

Last week I mentioned that the market momentum was down in the daily and hourly and that is still the case, but I was and still am looking for things to turn back up. Thursday and Friday was my days for a significant market rally as stated last week. We did drop down a bit more than I thought, but my idea is sill alive by a thread.

There is really no more room for error as it is clear that other factors will be at work if we drop significantly through yesterdays lows. That said, a break of today’s highs will be a signal for at minimum a short term rally of significance. The maximum move up while still remaining in the context of this downtrend is around 1100 S&P futures.

So, to remain objective, which is a little easier now, a break of yesterdays lows will trigger a lot more selling and be considered a break down in the market, while a break above today’s highs will get a short term rally started at a minimum. Strong resistance is at the 1100 S&P level and we will just have to wait and see after that.

OK, I was waiting for the update and it just came in at 9:30 p.m. West Coast time for the “investment market newsletter survey” of professional newsletter writers. It did come in as suspected and as I wrote in yesterdays blog. The numbers did drop to 33.3% which is significantly bullish and a trigger point number. The last trigger point moved the market a month ago and now this is a second attempt at this bullish scenario. The position of the market the last time was a little premature just based on a pure technical picture. The market has done the back filling that it needed to do and looks like it could be ready for that larger move now. There is still no guarantee’s but I would say it is much more likely now that this is all complete and we have favorable sentiment numbers to prove those bears wrong at least for a while, which is all that needs to be done.

September and October are traditionally the two worst months of the year for the market and we will have to deal with that, but I would just love to see the market blow through that paradigm and prove so many wrong. The pure technical play of the market will confirm all of this shortly, but getting a jump on the potential shift at least mentally can be an asset.

Last week, I showed a chart of the S&P 500 market but I did it in the cash market. I will show you one today in the futures market since that is what I trade. It does look a little differently and reading the support here is actually right on target as you will see. I know the current financial environment is terrible, but I am not looking at all the reports coming out of which their are many, but just the technical picture. In the chart below you will see support coming in at which was once resistance weeks back. Lets look and see together if prices can stay above that line I drew on the charts?

In today’s trading, I did good, but was just focused on closing out the position that I carried over from the day before of which I rarely never do but on very rare circumstances. I closed out additional contracts today at +16 points and +12 points of which I was very happy. I had a few scalp trades to add to the total of which I was very conservative. I know that a trader will have his biggest losses when he has had some of his best gains. I only know that because of personal experience and share to those, be careful not to let your guard down in protecting your capital, because this is where it could happen. With that said, don’t trade in fear, because you will never reach your potential if you are are afraid of pulling the trigger. When you do, just be sure it is a method trade, what ever that is for you, and if you error, let it be on the conservative side.

The chart below is a small tick chart that I have scrunched together again. This the only way you could see a detailed view of what happened in today’s market turns and include the trade I had from yesterday. Tomorrow, I will go back to showing the first 90 minutes and if I can make it to the action on time, I will have my trades there as well.

I am going over to the coast of Oregon tomorrow morning to a town called Brookings. It is right on the beach and will spend the rest of the weekend there with my wife. So, if I can put on a few trades before 8 am West Coast that will do it for me and my week.

Good Trading to all who follow my blog. I hope you find your way through all the confusion in financial world with much success, Vince.

P.S.  Read today’s message from the “Daily Motivator” (on the right margin of my website) as it is a true motivation to live your dreams. Just click on the title “Imagine Intensely” which will likely be the second post in line. Be sure to read the whole thing by clicking on the title. This can be yours if you decide. Often that is all it takes to get things going.

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Market Now In Position to Rally as Bearish Sentiment Builds

Wednesday, August 25th, 2010

Today is Wednesday August 25, 2010 and the market stopped the bleeding in a nice market reversal off of earlier weakness.

Today’s market reversal was pretty critical, as we saw a little more selling yesterday than I thought, but all is well. That is not what you would here on the news. I am sure everyone and their brother is bearish right now and understandable. I just can’t buy into that right now, which is very unpopular.

I would bet with the extra selling yesterday, the bears think that they have the upper hand and can smell blood. I hear a lot of talk about a market crash and the “Hindenburg Omen” and such, but I just don’t think it is going to happen just yet. As mentioned I could be wrong, so don’t base any big long term market decisions on my say so, this is just my opinion.

With that said, when a majority are calling for a direction move, it rarely happens when they expect. I will be looking for a rally on Thursday and Friday as I said last week. (“We would rally later in the week, Thursday & Friday”)  We needed to get through the early part of the week without falling apart and even though yesterdays market did move down more than I first thought, I can see why and where other support was coming in at now.  A little after the fact, but today I was looking for the market to hold and make a market reversal.   In fact I do still have the majority of it in a open position which I rarely ever do. The situation called for it, was my thought.  I am protected and have a stop in place, so it should work out pretty good either way.

One thing also to keep in mind is, we are coming up to an election in a few months and the current party does not want to give up control in the House and Senate. One would think this should not have anything to do the market, but to often it does in reality. I won’t speculate on how, you will just have to use your imagination, but if things fall apart right now, it will most likely translate into a big shift in the Washington power base. A stable or rising market will give them a fighting chance. I have seen this to many times over the years to know that there could be some connection.

I am looking for a move up to S&P futures 1100 or so in the next few sessions. So, we will all just have to wait and see what happens. Below is a chart of yesterdays first 90 minutes and I have a chart of today’s action, but it is pretty scrunched up. Its the only way I could get all the data in showing where I closed out a portion of my position at the top. I did have a couple of losses early on, but came back with a nice gain for +5.25 points and +12.75 points. I still have an open position as I mentioned earlier, but have a large profit built into my stop, so I should be good for further advances if they come. If I get a nice push on the open or in the night trading, this will make up for not trading the last week and half for sure. The charts below.

Good Trading to all.

P.S. will update all action and new market sentiment numbers in tomorrows update.

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Market momentum down, but looking for support

Monday, August 23rd, 2010

Today is August 23rd and we saw the markets holding on with only modest losses as the S&P dropped -4.75 points.

I think tomorrow will be a pretty important trading day and will be looking for the market to hold on. This is not a far gone conclusion, but this is what I would be looking for. If we see big selling and close that way, we will be seeing other factors come into play. Currently the daily and hourly momentum is clearly down. Support will have to make itself clear or the markets momentum will take over and we will drop.

After Tuesdays session, a new weekly poll from the Investment Newsletter Writers will come out for Wednesdays market. The negative sentiment will likely have a reverse effect on future market direction. So, the key is for the market to hold on, without any major damage, but we will see.

Below, I have a chart of today’s first 90 minutes showing the turning points during that time. There are only a few trades and they were all pretty clear. If all the trades were taken, 3 would have been big winners with one small loss. This is only based on the trade indicators. I won’t say if I would have taken all of these trades but I will say that I really liked the first one and the last one.

One would only have to capture a few points from one of these trades to make a nice daily goal. The chart below is a tick chart and the smallest size of which I use on most trading days.

Still laying low on personal trading and may be ready to get back into it by this coming Monday. I am enjoying the time off, as it will help me recharge myself for the many coming months of good volatility, that’s the plan anyway.

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Two market scenario’s, which will prevail ?

Saturday, August 21st, 2010

Today is Saturday August 21st and the markets had an interesting week keeping the selling contained.

The markets were rising early on in the week, only to give it back plus a little more. As the week moved on, the selling was contained. I am pretty sure that we are going to hold up in this area. There are a few cross currents taking place, but I think this is what is needed to purge the excess out of the market before any future advance can take place.

Looking back I was a little off in initial support of the market, which it did come in as expected, but it did not hold. The lower area of support held more or less, off by a couple of points (S&P futures 1065), as other factors take hold of this market in its support for a possible sustained rally.

The market sentiment changed for the better in defense of the bulls, in that the sentiment turned a bit more negative, which in turn is positive. We never did get the big rally, but only a smaller reaction rally coming off the lows of the much larger sell-off from months past. The market needs time to fill in the gaps and that is what it was doing. I would add, if the market really wanted to go down, it sure is in a perfect place right here to “crack”, but somehow, I don’t think that is going to happen, again, just my opinion, which could be wrong.

I see the current position in the market as finding support in this area. We may hoover for a couple of days, as again the new sentiment numbers will be voted on after Tuesdays closing market. This is useful for a couple of reasons. Last week the market sentiment turned down from 41.7 to around 37%.  That was significant because the signal changed as the market had advanced sizable on the day of the poll.  So we saw a 4% shift negatively as the market advanced. The selling that took place Thursday and Friday should add to the negative sentiment if the market can hold in this area come Monday and Tuesday. Either way, there is a lot of negative sentiment floating around which usually can only be erased by a market advance.

The market needed to work off the excess and time needed to pass to better allow the market to be and get in a position so that it could move out. Either way, the energy is being built up so that it can be expelled in one direction or another. As day-traders, we don’t really care which way it goes, only that it goes and it will.

So my best guess is that we consolidate in the general area for a couple of days, further building up this market pressure for a surprise market advance later in the coming week. This time, the market should have some staying power and the shorts will really be covering themselves in full force. I do realize that something could make this change of which I have no control, not that I had or have control anyway, but this is just the big picture and how I could see things shaping up. Late July and early August the market wanted to advance, but a continued move from that point would have been to obvious, so a little head fake was in order. In addition, this move back is very normal and consistent with general market movements before a rally, again I say if it comes.

I want to through this in, just to balance out my opinion on the coming move. When I look at the daily charts, I see the other side of the equation as well and I need to look at it no matter how or what I think will happen with the next move. In fact before I continue with my reasoning, this is exactly what needs to take place for any smaller market move when deciding to go long or short. You size up your analysis based on your trading method and which ever direction has more evidence for that directional move, you need to consider a trade in that prevailing direction. Looking at the other side of the equation though is just as important. I know when I get one-sided in my opinion I can get tripped up as any trader can.

With that said, the market is also in a perfect place to continue its sell-off,  if in-fact it wants to.  I will put up a daily chart of what I am talking about so you can see all of what I am saying. Where the S&P 500 currently stands, their exists a free flowing path to the downside area, around the bottom red line as drawn would be normal and natural for it to occur. That would be looking at both sides of the market and a wise thing to do. This is where market sentiment can give you a clue as to the next major market move and where I am taking one of my clues from. I have been following this “Investment Advisory Market Sentiment” figures for a long, long time and have seen it come through time and time again.

If the market can hold up Monday and Tuesday, the outlook for the market advance becomes stronger. Again, be sure to take a look at the daily chart below. You can also see market resistance coming in at around 1110 or so, the top red line. Currently the daily and hourly momentum is down and the path of least resistance is down, but lets see if we HOLD this Monday and Tuesday to give my scenario a chance for life. 

I did no trading this week as I took some time off to spend with family. I have a couple of shots below of my area, where I got out to enjoy some of God’s creation. My kids came to visit and it was great to see them. My son John, 28 who is an electrical engineer in Portland Oregon and my daughter Angie, 24,   (entrepreneur) visiting from the San Francisco Bay Area.

We hiked on the Pacific Crest Trail which is a trail that links from Mexico to Canada and passes right through where I live.  I have a shot of a nearby waterfall and swimming hole a couple of miles from my home, very cool, take a peek if you care to.                                 Thanks for stopping by and Good Trading to all,  Vince.

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Slow Summer Trading Day

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

Today is Wednesday August 18th, 2010 and the markets squeezed out a small gains on the  day with Dow up +10 and the S&P +2 points.

I took a few days off this week as you may have noticed. All is well, but just took a break from trading and writing as summer will soon be over.

The trading day ended up slightly as the market sold off near the close of the session. In a nutshell, we did get that bounce I had talked about last Thursday. I said that we should see a pretty good bounce up on Friday or Monday. It did not come on either of those days but on Tuesday where we saw a very nice advance across the board. The previous low should hold in my estimation at this point, but we will see if  Thursdays market has a retest coming. With the late sell off, that is what it looks like.

I could see the market trading to the 1080 area early in the session, where we should find support around there and try and mount another rally. Currently the S&P is around 1087. The S&P market should stay above 1075 and if 1068 is broken, more heavy selling could come in quickly.

The market has big overhead resistance around 1118. If it can get over that number give or take, much higher prices could come in, but that is the big barrier right now and pretty far off.  Also, it will be interesting to see how the Investors Intelligence market sentiment changed today as I won’t be able to see it until this time tomorrow, but will report any changes.

That’s it for now. I have a simple tick chart of the S&P emini futures below showing the early morning turning points as per my trading method. This is just as far as the indicators are concerned. We teach how to trade the price and use the indicators to confirm. Simple but effective. Until tomorrow, Good Trading.  Vince

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Day Trading for Income

Saturday, August 14th, 2010

Today is Friday the 13th day of August and the Index’s were down slightly -16 on the Dow and -3.50 on the S&P futures.

I guess the market needed to take a breather from yesterdays sell-off, as we did not go to far in the session today. A very narrow range was not exactly what I was expecting. I thought it would start to pick up, but it did not. The market went back to sleep. Come Monday, it is going to have to show its hand if in-fact the support from Thursdays market is going hold. That is key support and if broken, we are in a bit of trouble as I see it. I expect a bounce off this current level of at least 20 S&P points, maybe a little more, come the next few sessions. After the bounce, (if it comes) that is really the moment of truth for this market.

I talked about the market sentiment in yesterdays postings as the bearish sentiment dropped a lot. Last week we saw a 6% drop in bears as per “Stock Market news letter writers”. It went from 34% bearish to only 28%. That is significant, but the more important side is the bullish percent. That did increase from 38% to 41%, still a little on the light side. A figure of 35 is bullish and we are coming off of that now and a reading of 55 is bearish. This number does not have to get to the upper extreme for the market to sell off, just somewhere in the middle is enough. Tuesday the new numbers will be coming out and if we see a rally on those days, it could push the bullish camp to the middle of range and then the market can do what ever it wants from there. A strong signal a month ago has given only a modest market move, if in-fact this market is done, that I don’t know. One thing is for sure, one needs to play the price action as it relates. A big bounce will be setting itself up for a good predictive move either way at that point.

To better illustrate this, I have a “Daily Chart” of the S&P cash market up again as I did last week. I have new notes on it as I pointed out the potential for a big drop from last Fridays blog posting. Well, we did get the drop, now what. Go see the chart below and get the rest of the details of what we could expect.

In today’s trading, since the price action was so slow, I did not push it. I only had a few trades and called it a day. I had a little over 3 points gain and just 2 ticks of lose. It wasn’t to exciting, but trying to make something where there is little, is usually not a good idea. I could have went into scalp mode and tried to pick up a few more points, but when the prices are moving so slow and there is little volume, I really don’t like it. I would rather wait. My trades are below.

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Trading for a living is a traders dreams and at times dreams do come true. For this dream to come true, one needs to have a trading plan and a back up trading plan from the first one. Things do not always work out the way we would like, but having a trading plan to begin with, puts you miles ahead of other traders who have none.  Finding the best trading instrument is also something one needs to contend with. I find that trading individual stocks are easier to trade than the S&P emini’s in a general sense, but I enjoy the trading leverage that comes with futures trading.

I find that trading for income is much easier than trying to trade all day for the sake of trading. If its the money we pursue, than trading discipline and patients is going to be in high demand. Without a high degree of trading discipline and the patients to go with it, you will end up working against yourself.

Traders do not realize that they themselves are there biggest obstacle to overcome. Read that last line again. That is right, we end up derailing our efforts to often by our lack of discipline and need for action. If a trader trades for income, then he gets what came for and leaves to enjoy the freedom that day trading was supposed to offer, or that is how it is supposed to work.

With the high degree of trading leverage that emini futures trading offers, you really don’t need to trade all day. Consistency in capturing 2-4 points per day on most days, with windfall days 2-3 times a month, should do the trick nicely. If a higher income is what you want, mastering the daily goal is the first place to start with small trading size. After that goal has been reached, then slowly increasing your size to the desired income level is next.

If an emini trader could master the 2-4 points a day average, highs and lows, including loosing days, which is 60 S&P points per month, x that by $50 dollars per contract traded and you have $ 3,000 per month. That is your minimum profit for one contract traded for the whole month. It not a lot of money, but increasing that slowly over the course of a year, could easily take you to 20 contracts. Now that is serious money, 20 x $3,000 or $60 K a month.

Increasing is an option and has its own set of psychological problems, but those limitations are usually our own inability to allow us to earn more. Our own self worth needs to be evaluated and we need to give ourselves permission to reach all of our financial goals as our plan calls for.

To day trade 20 lots in the emini market a trader really only needs about 20k in his account to put on a trade with that size, based on the trading leverage that is available to him. Each S&P point is then worth $1,000 dollars. That is a lot of bread, but that works against you just the same. Trading with that kind of leverage is definitely not advisable, but for every 3-4 thousand dollars of increased profits, one could over 3-4 months find themselves at that 20 lot level. Even averaging 2 points a day (40 points a month) will get you their in 5-6 months and give you the ability to take money out of the market each week.

It first starts with us and our mental attitude. Controlling greed and our emotions, while we trade for income. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Keep your trading funds safe until you truly posses the trading edge, then live your trading dream. (Part coming next posting)

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Nice Profit Day, Even with a Few Mistakes

Thursday, August 12th, 2010

Today is Thursday, August 12th and the market was down today to hit that low side target called in last Fridays post.

I said last Friday that we would trade down to maximum 1075 to 1080 on the S&P and today we hit 1071. The market did trade past the mental target I had, but it came back quickly which is important. That shows that the market is likely to have found a short term bottom at least. Currently the market is trading up off its close for the session and looks good for tomorrow to be an up day.

With tonight’s aftermarket  break long of 1083 on the Emini Futures, we will likely see 1097 to 1104 either in tomorrows session or Mondays. The natural rhythm of the market should swing the balance of power back up to this level.

The market sentiment for this week saw the bullish side move up 3 percent to 41% and change, getting closer to a neutral standard setting. This rally here is what it is all about, if this rally fails the market is in trouble. We will need to stay above today’s lows. Again, if that gets taken out, I can not see how that is going to good for bulls, as heavy selling will come in for sure. Being objective and just reading the charts, that is how I see it. So lets hope for a big bounce first and a powerful push higher from here. If this rally looks and acts weak, that will be a sign of trouble. I believe, we should see heavy buying up to the numbers stated above and a very strong market to that point, after that, we will have to see.

The bearish camp dropped down to 27.5% and represents a 6% drop from last week. That is not good for the bulls. More people are getting bullish and less people are getting bearish. When you get a minority position, marked by certain levels, you will see a swing in the opposite direction.

One thing I believe for sure is that we will see an uptick in volume and movement. Even though this is summer and usually slow, I think you will see nice swing trades coming.

Below is today’s trades. The first shot is for this mornings trades and the second one is for the afternoon session. I did a video of the whole day and show all the turns with a little commentary. You can find it in the Video Gallery and should be the last one in line.      Good Trading, Vince

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Scalp Trading Chart in a Narrow Range

Wednesday, August 11th, 2010

Today is Wednesday, August 11th and we finally broke down with some conviction today as the S&P fell 35 points and the Dow -265.

Well, I wanted to post yesterday, but I had family come in from out of town and did not get a chance. I saw the market over the last few days holding up nicely and we did see strong closes at the end of these sessions, but something happened to kick off a ton of stops that were built up over the last few days of trading. I did see and wanted to say that a break of 1110 on the S&P would send this market down and a break over our previous high as a continued move up would decide the next market move, but that was just said to me in my head.

I put up a daily chart a few days ago and said that this break from the above area would send the market down to the 1075 / 1080 area and I see in the night trading that we bounced off that in the session. We are bouncing off that support low by 6 S&P points on this Wednesday evening at 9:39 West Coast. I think we will see some kind of a bounce in Thursdays session but the cash market is likely to trade down to the 75/80 area to fill in the gap from the futures. I would expect to see support in this area at least for the time being.

The up move over the last few weeks has been contained and I am in a just wait and see approach for now on the larger overall market direction. The best I will do is to just trade what I see for now. The market is acting very normal and a pull back from this move up is definitely not a surprise. The market can do what ever it wants to do and we all need to remember not to fight it, but go with it.

Below is the last two days of my trading as I was just scalping this market, especially today. I always remember after a very big drop of which most of it come in the premarket, it leaves little to trade for the regular session and the moves are often smaller. The majority of the energy was released in the premarket and as mentioned, left little for the opening. With that said, I decided to just scalp trade this market for short targets of which you can see in the charts below. Yesterday was a little better, but missed a few good moves, but not complaining at all. So I will be back tomorrow with more comments but will end it for now. Good Trading and be safe.  Vince

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Quiet Trading Leading up to F.O.M.C. Annoucement Tomorrow

Monday, August 9th, 2010

Today is Monday, August 9th and the market is holding up pretty nicely in the face of that large sell-off and recovery on Friday.

The Dow is up 47 points with 35 minutes to go and the S&P +5 points as this market comes into the close. Tomorrow is a big new day as the F.O.M.C. will be meeting to decide what the direction of interest rates will be. It may be that they leave it alone, but may comment on the current environment going forward. It should get a little spark in the market because today was the slowest volume day I have seen all summer long.  This is typical, but no one seems to like it.

The only thing one can do is be sure to trade the first 60-90 minutes of the day. There you will usually find the best volume of the day and the moves to go with it.

I only have a small posting today as I have company coming over and want to get this posting up. I did not trade as I had problems with my data feed getting my charts loaded. I have a video showing only half my screen loaded with the trade matrix missing, the most important part. I can’t trade without that up, so, I did not make a big deal about. I still did a video showing the days action from the open and did take it back to the pre-market. You can see the simple turns in the market as identified by one of my trading tools. I never say what that it is and how it works, but it is a tiny part of what I look at. We make buying and selling decisions on the price as it relates to the current environment, long or short, this indicator is just a guide. That is the only and best way to trade for the long term. What we teach at Sniper Day Trading, will last the test of time because this is how the market works going back decades. This style or trading method will never become obsolete or irrelevant in future.

Above is a U-Tube video I did of today’s action as it was in progress. I show the last move and called out the market top around 12 pm West Coast at 1126.75 / 1127 and the market when up to that tick and turned down by three points, showing that was significant short term resistance as called. You can take a look at the video if you care to. It is not earth shattering, but you can see the quiet natural flow of prices in a small tick chart format.

Look for the market to trade quietly until the Fed announcement tomorrow at 11:15 West Coast. Then, we should see more volume and movement as least for awhile. Good Trading,    Vince

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