Archive for July, 2010

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Sniper Day Trading Method, Works On Stocks Too

Wednesday, July 14th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, July 13th and no pull back as of yet after hitting my S&P 1080 target.

These target announcements is just a way for me to think out loud and share my thoughts. I don’t trade these multi day calls, although if I did, I would have cleaned up. I have called all of these large daily moves over the past year with excellent timing and results. Again, its just to give me an idea of what kind of day I can expect and where the index’s end the session’s, on there highs or lows.

I did see a minimum move coming from S&P 1036 to this 1080 area as called. We have hit that, but was looking for a pull back, it did not come. I can see in the night trading a gap higher just after today’s close. It is hard to say exactly what is next. Since we did not get the pull back and are pushing the outer limits of range, this market could go either way. There is a lot of news coming out the next few days and would expect the market to show good movement.

I can’t imagine the sentiment numbers coming out tomorrow will be lower, with this big rally. The opposite could be true. We could get pushed right back to the middle numbers with 45% bullish being neutral. Last weeks numbers were 37% and falling. We did come close to the trigger point and that is making we wonder if the bulls said, it was close enough, lets buy the market. It happened about 4 signals ago, in the same scenario, so it is possible with recent examples to back that up. The market went up for several more weeks un-interrupted.

I am traveling in the SF Bay Area today and for the next day or two, so I am taking a low profile. I don’t want to have to trade if out of my comfort zone. I can for sure and do many times while traveling, but I have made mistakes in the past that I think otherwise would not have made if I was not distracted. I need to keep my consentration up at all times while following the markets. If you get sloppy, or I,  you could get spanked, (hurt). No fun.

I want to start trading the opening bell very soon and will be doing so coming up. There are better moves and volume usually in the morning open, first 90-120 minutes. That is going to be my focus, but just need to change my schedule around, not an easy task, I am a night owl, as I write this past midnight on Tuesday, oh, now Wednesday.

That is it, for now, need sleep. Below, is two charts, one of RIMM and the other, FAZ.  The first stock is a popular day trading stock and the second is as well. Some people may not be aware of it, but it is Bear Index (3x’s Index) so this has  moves behind it, as the financial sector goes about its business. It moves in the opposite directions as the banks and finance companies. It is a good day trading stock as well. You can take a peak of there charts in a tick chart. Rimm chart is a slow time frame and the Faz is a little bit faster. OK, I will be back tomorrow. Good Trading.

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S&P futures hit 1080 in Mondays Night Trading

Monday, July 12th, 2010

Today is Monday, July 12th and a pretty flat day on the Street.

No great volume or movement today as the market looked like it was putting in a top, only to have the market rally towards the end of the day. In the night trading, currently, we are seeing 1082 as the high, finally hitting the S&P futures 1080 + or – as called, but no market reversal as of yet.

The charts below, are from today’s action. A few trades early on, 10 minutes of trading in the morning and 30 minutes of slow trading in the late afternoon. I had limited time to trade today, but that was fine. Daily goal met.

That’s it for now, more in tomorrows posting. Good Trading.

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Looking for Reversal Monday or Tuesday latest

Sunday, July 11th, 2010

This post is for Friday’s session July 9th and we did see a continuation in the uptrend very close to 1080 as called.

The cash S&P hit 1078 with the futures just behind it in Fridays session. After the close, the futures dropped, several points coming off its closing high, with that sell off continuing in the night trading Sunday night. On Friday, I was looking for a possible reversal coming off of 1080, but we never got there. It is possible that on Mondays session we might see that reversal. I will have my eye on that if we make at least one push up on the open which gets close to that 1080 number, + or – a couple of points.  There is a little more room to move past that number, but I do see resistance coming in from a few directions and confirming with other markets.

We will have two trading sessions to make an impression on the bears before the Investment sentiment survey is again taken. Those numbers dropped 4% last week bringing us closer to a bullish signal. Currently at 37% with 35% needed to push things up a bit more than just a minor swing of a few days. These buy signals can last for several weeks. So, if such was going to happen, we would need to come back off these highs and make an impression on the bears that this latest bull move was just a fake and the real move is yet to begin.

If that is the case, it would coincide with the natural rhythm of this market and we could get a late 4th of July bang. That is not the popular belief out there and I say that with a little hesitancy, because everything looks awful out there. But earning season is just about to begin and we could see surprises, enough to move this market.

I again will say, that I am a big big long term Bear and think this market is going to tank, but just a fake like this would be a perfect recipe for taking out all of the shorts first. Make them suffer first, put the squeeze on them, shake them out, or how ever you would like to say it, but don’t make it easy for the shorts. If in-fact this market does this, it could set up a very nice move later in the year for another crash.

That is a mouthful, and should not get ahead of myself. One thing is for sure, if you know how to ride this market, you can clean up once the moves come back. Overall, the market has been acting pretty good, with moves in both direction and with size, except for Friday.

Friday was a very soft day of movement, especially the mid day. There was very little movement from 9 to 11 am West Coast on Friday. If you tried to trade that, you likely did not do well. I to often trade when I feel like trading and it cost me on Friday. I got myself caught in that trap and did see my first daily stop out in a long, long time. I did have my chances, but if I hit – 4 S&P points in any one single day, I am done and such was the case. I still did very good for the week with Thursday more than covering my losses on Friday as it was over 3 times my daily goal.

I will shoot for 2-4 points per session, with a bias for 4 points.  My daily stop out point per session is -4 S&P points. A minimum 2-4 times per month, when the conditions are right, the market will just give you extra points. Those are the days that you have to make extra. You don’t actively seek it, the market will tell you when those days are and when it talks you listen. If you make extra points 2-4 times per month, if you have a day that you get stopped out, it is no big deal. You just get back on the horse and ride. It is best not to go looking for the big score every day. If you do that, you will be forcing the trades, not a good idea.

Trading is supposed to without * Effort , without * Force, without * Straining, without * Struggling and without * Trying. It should be effortless. Hard work is in the training and preparation, but while trading it should be without any of the above, but should be natural.

Compare a world class runner vs someone who rarely runs. To the one a 5 mile run is easy, while a one mile run to another is a great struggle.

Think about it. If you struggle and need and or want help, email me. To ask questions and get answers. You don’t have to be a member of Sniper Day Trading, I do want to help traders see “The Light”, so to speak, but if you need formal training, I have that very much available as well. Just a reminder, we teach all our students to read and understand “Price Action” with the trade indicators being extra.

Good Luck and Good Trading to All.

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“How To Trade The Futures Market”

Thursday, July 8th, 2010

Today is Thursday July 8th and we will be discussing how to trade the futures market.

There are many ways to trade the futures market. One of those ways is to swing trade key positions that you hold on to for a week or longer. This requires holding your positions over night and does increase your risk. Many traders prefer to day trade the futures market, where the opportunities are endless.

There are many styles of day trading, with position trading, trend trading, scalp trading and counter trend trading, just to name a few. Each style has it advantages and disadvantages.

Every trader needs to do personal analysis to see which style best suits there personality. If you are very impatient, you probably would not do best holding your positions for long periods of time. Trading for smaller moves more often can be the way to go, as long as your risk is controlled and proportionate to your gains.

Many traders will not put a trade on unless they have a 2:1 profit / loss ratio or higher with emphasis on higher. There is nothing wrong with that and may be the way to go for most people. If this is your desired way to go, you will need patients to wait for the trade to come together. This also may mean that you need to trade a good part of the day or all of it, to get the high quality trades to come to you.

This brings us into trading time frames. What is the best trading time frame to use. This goes back to finding out what type of trading best suits you. If you have a limited amount of time to trade, say 90 minutes off the opening bell. You will need to bring your time frame down to the point that you will have several trading opportunities to get in and get out. If you only have limited trading opportunities, you may find yourself in a session draw down with no time or trading opportunities to come back.

If you are like me, I am able to find many trading opportunities trading a combination of scalp trading and trend trading. Both of these terms are relative to my trading method (Sniper Day Trading) and may mean something different to other traders.

Learning how to trade the futures market does not have to be hard. A person almost has to think in the opposite fashion as conventional wisdom. I have heard it said and would agree that futures trading is simple, but it is never easy. If you have a strategy that is easy to understand and has clear visual guidelines to follow, with modest objectives, a trader can get and keep the upper hand over a long period of time.

There are other factors that many futures traders do not take into account. Traders are human, and such they all have a human nature which is predicable. This human nature can be used to our advantage or it can be the “kiss of death”. Being successful in my estimation will require that every individual take steps to overcome all personal weaknesses, what ever they may be. If you procrastinate, you will need to work on that. If you are lazy, you will need to address that. If you are impatient, you will certainly be tested, and so. What ever personal weaknesses you have, the market has a way of uncovering them and bring it to the light.

My suggestion for anyone who wants to trade the futures market, do not open an account larger than $5,000. Bring personal discipline into your life. Exercise regularly, eat a balanced diet and get plenty of rest. That is just to start. You will notice there is nothing in there that has to do with actual trading at this point. The reason, if you are not together, your mind will not be together and thus your trading efforts will suffer.

The reason for the small opening cash balance, is to bring a moment of pause. If you are just starting out, you will likely loose the funds, no matter how large, in your trading account, you will be fighting human nature as well as other traders.  That is just the way it is. Most people are not going to be mentally and physically prepared to do battle and will fall victim. If you take the preemptive  action you will have an advantage. Having to refund your account will bring as I mentioned “a moment of pause”, to the picture. Giving you extra time to make changes and adjust yourself for the consistent gains you strive for.

Trading the futures market successfully takes time. Let me say that again, because it is very important. Being successful takes time. Far to many traders rush into live trading with only a few weeks if that under there belt. It takes longer than that for most people. The reason, most traders do not have a tested trading method that they follow, one that actually works.  They have read a few books, look online at different websites to see what can be extracted and feel that they are qualified to consistently make money.

It takes more than that, a lot more. Every trader needs to have set guidelines and or rules to follow. If you don’t, human nature will take over and you know the rest of the story there. If you try and come up with them on your own, it would or could take years. I am not kidding about that. I know, because I created all my own rules and method and it takes that long. For many who go that way, your rules and or method may just not be any good, so you could have and will likely waist a lot of time and money.

The answer is not always buying systems or trading methods. Some are good, most are not. Some are very expensive, 5K and up and others not so much. It is hard to know who to trust in the trading education business. You should be able to see consistent patterns in what ever they are offering. Is this trad-able, is it easy to follow, is it something you can see yourself doing?  I will continue with part two of this in tomorrows blog postings.

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In today’s trading, I had a good profit day. I did take a few trades that could have been avoided, but I was able to overcome it as I usually do. I had a great trade towards the end of the day that can be seen in the U-Tub video gallery, top right hand corner website, first in line. Other than that, my call yesterday was for the market to trade up to 1066 where it would find temporary resistance and back off, but then attempt another run for up to 1080. So far that is exactly what happened. Yesterdays market closed at 1059 and we traded up to 1067 (1 point over) and backed off 13 S&P points and made a run to close at the high for day, 1069. We should see higher prices on the open which could include the 1080 forecast. I would not be surprised if we did see a reversal after 1080 is hit. This is just something I will be looking for. Good Trading, and be safe.

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Tick Chart Trading the S&P Emini Futures

Wednesday, July 7th, 2010

Today is Wednesday and the market took off higher to close up +275 on the Dow and +35 on the S&P futures.

We saw a very nice day today to the upside. I said yesterday that I was a bit undecided but wanted to see a break of two numbers, one down or one up. Which ever one breaks, that is where the move is going to come in at. We got the up move and the number I gave yesterday was 1030. That was right in line with a nice break to the upside at 6:55 am West Coast. There was only one other trade after the open before this main break out that could have been traded, so you did not miss much of the move after the market opened.  The market did not look back and we moved up +29 points after that 1030 number to close at 1059.25.  A nice call.

I did not come into today’s market until later on in the session and did pick up my daily goal. I had two 1 point losses and 1 tick loss with 8 gains that were scaled out of. Today was not a big day but still a nice daily goal. My losses were 100% my fault and could have had all winners again today. Bad timing and not doing things right will most often not give you the results you want. Just the opposite is true. If you do the right things at the right time, you will be rewarded, plain and simple.

There were so many good trading signals today and yesterday, it is not even funny. I love my trading method because it will work in any market condition. I can always scalp a point or two out of the market even in low volatility days. A few points and I am done. When the markets are moving, you have the benefit of catching a lot more if you want to. I have two main models to trade out of ,my T-1 screen (scalp screen setup)  and T-2 screen. I mainly use tick chart in my trading, but time, volume or range charts can be used just the same.

The second screen, of which only a fraction of the whole screen is shown, is my T-2 screen and is mainly for trending markets. I have other things built into the all the screens, but can only show you a limited amount. (Something is better than nothing). You certainly can scalp a point or two out of this as well and I often do just that. I have become a bit partial these days to the T-2 screen, as I am trying not to take counter trend trades and this screen does help me see that better.

We look at different time frames as well, with the one I most often show, being the smallest tick chart of the three. Two charts are internally designed to work together on the front screen and gives you the zoomed in view for best entries (as shown) and a zoomed out view for the bigger picture. My custom trading indicators are intertwined together inside these two charts which gives the same signals on both screens, creating a synergistic effect.

I have a U-Tube Video of today’s trades, showing the smallest tick charts of the three and yesterdays trades, as well as all the trading signals generated by my indicators. Just following the indicators will generate consistent profits, but we teach how to read and trade the price by itself. The two are a powerful combination. Take a look in the video and see what you think. A trader only needs a couple of these trades to do very well each day.

Enough said about that. The sentiment numbers came out today and it was down 4% to 37% bullish. Very close to a big buy signal, but no cigar. We needed to see that 35% to get confirmation that this move will have legs.

Right now, the market looks good and there is likely more to go. I do see likely initial resistance at 1066 S&P futures, but may likely trade to 1080 after. The daily charts are still pointing down as are the weekly even with today’s move. We would need to finish this move up, then retest somewhere in the middle of this range to see if it is going to hold. So more work to be done by the markets to see if we can turn the corner in the daily charts. In the retesting between now and next week it could be enough to get the market to bit on the last 2 % needed in the sentiment index to give this market a real boost, we shall see?

If you have questions or want more information, drop me a line at vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com

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Scalp Trading

Tuesday, July 6th, 2010

Today is Tuesday and we saw good movement in the S&P Emini today, closing only slightly higher.

Index’s across the board up slightly as the market is trying to gain its footing. We are getting squeezed in this sell-off. I see higher prices for at least the short term if we get over 1030 on the S&P futures. I also see lower prices if we break below 1013. Either way, it is going to move off of those levels. I see a lot of things that say we make a stand here, but there are things brewing that show more downside. I would have to say I am neutral until one of the levels just mentioned are broken.

Today’s trading went well. I scalp traded my way towards my daily goal nicely in both directions. I took very little heat on my trades and that is the way I like it.  All gains, to the plus side. My timing was good and played it safe for the most part. Scalp trading is not impossible as many in the trading world say. They only say that because they could not do it, so now it is bad and impossible for everyone. “I don’t think so”.

Trading is simple, but its never easy as I had a few two point trades and several 1 and 1.50 point trades. I did take one more trade after the posted trades below for just one point. One hour of trading as I have a screen shot of my trades below. I will pick it up tomorrow and post early if the sentiment numbers come with any surprises. Until then, Good Trading.

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Steps For Establishing your Trading Goals

Sunday, July 4th, 2010

This post is for Friday’s market as the Index’s pulled off Thursdays intra-day low of 1006.

The market had a negative bias to it on Friday after the open which lasted for several hours. We started to flatten out around mid session and then made a run for it. The market did a pretty good job, but just before the close, no one wanted to hold over the long weekend and things sold off quickly. Modest losses for the Dow and NASDAQ as well.

Where do we go from here? Well, everything is down except for the monthly charts right now. It is hard to say, but I would like this market to hold up for while before any major cracks take place, but the market is not going to listen to me. As the days go by, we will afford more of a move down, so as for the Dow to get to the 9500 area or so. The index’s are not exactly in sync and some backing and filling may have to be done to get things lined up with each other. The number S&P 1006 was significant last week, but as time passes, if will allow for the market to come down a little more.  We had a 20 S&P point advance off of the 1006 number but I do see that there could be more room for things to settle in here. It is all pretty close. There is a chance that we could hold on to the lows set on Thursday and by Wednesday move out higher. I will just have to see how things shape up on Tuesday first.

There is a lot of room for the market to drop if it wants to, but if we can contain any new selling to afford the Dow to get to 9500 + or -, we could see a good move off of that number.  The new sentiment numbers will come out on Wednesday morning and there could be new developments there. We were holding at 41% bullish and a reading of 35% or less should trigger a counter move up.  Since the markets will be closed on Monday, that gives us only one day to see what it will do. A 6% drop is kind of a lot to drop in one week, but I have seen it happen plenty of times before.

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Friday’s trading was bit tough for me. It all turned out OK in the end, but I came up to my daily loss limit (4 S&P points) and could have went slightly over it if my last trade did not work out. My judgment was off and it caused me to struggle. I saw something, a big move coming and was acting ahead of the move so as not to miss it. I had built a position with three entries just before my last trade and it did not work out. Only a small loss around 4-5 ticks but I really needed to wait on that move for a better entry. The move was just brewing in the hopper, waiting to jump out, but I needed more patients. The last trade made up for all the mistakes and I hit better than my daily goal. I have similar notes on my screen below if you click on it, once and then again to blow it up if you care to see.  Video of the last trade in U-Tube video gallery posted on Friday too.

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Steps for establishing your goals:

1) Start by doing what you know works, then experiment with new applications. When in doubt, try to do more of what your already doing that is already delivering the results you want.

2) Build the right back up scenario’s into your plan. What might go wrong? Anticipate the unexpected at every level of achievement and don’t let concern about your own status as others perceive it, keep you from making the right choices in the right situations.

3) Get feedback from the right people on the pros and cons of your trading plan. People who give constructive feedback want to see you grow and people who offer only negative thoughts want to see you stay the same. Don’t waste your time talking to people who want to make you feel bad about yourself or question your dream altogether.

4) Keep your eye on the goal, but don’t get tunnel vision as it relates to other obligations. You have to balance your goals as it relates to the big picture. Do something each day that takes you closer to reaching your trading goals and is a reminder to yourself that you are going forward and making progress. The key is balance all other things of importance so other things do not suffer at the expense of reaching your goal.

5) Keep learning and growing and remember no one does it all alone. If the problems down the road look too large to you while you are setting up your plan, remember, you will be a big person by the time you need to solve them. To often we hold off on growth because we worry, “How would I handle all these problems”. We assume that we will never be smarter than we are right now and that we will never run into anyone else who offers skills and experiences that complement your own.

If you are a struggling trader and want to bounce an idea or two off of me, feel free to send me an email and I will give you my constructive thoughts on it. Many times traders do not have anyone to talk to about what they are trying to accomplish and it can be frustrating, because they may be going in the wrong direction. I won’t be trying to get you signed up with my trading course unless you want to, but if you ask a legitimate trading question or questions, I will give you a professional answer, no more. It is up to you to ask. If you struggle with concentration and focus, ask me for a free copy of my E-Book on “The Power of Concentration”.  Again, no strings attached and I will not be hounding you with this or that. Just ask for it and its yours, that is it, and again, if you have questions, I will be happy to answer. So, think it through and send me any email. We are half way through the year, make the second half count in reaching your trading goals.

Good Trading,

Vince

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Posted in Trader Coaching | 1 Comment »

Called the Bottom to the Tick

Friday, July 2nd, 2010

Today is Thursday and market found the target that I called to my Sniper Day Trading members on Monday.

I followed up with the call for the market to move down to S&P 1006 area or so and today did just that. We hit 1006 exactly and moved up directly off that number to the tick by 20 full S&P points. That is somewhat equal to 200 Dow points right off that bottom.

That was a move from the original call short from 1066. I believe that was in the post I talked about the inside day and if we broke it, would be seeing lower prices. The break came in the premarket giving a clear indication of where prices were likely to continue to go, down. That was a 60 point move from those two points.

It is and would be a bit hard to take all those points out of the market, since we only day trade and do not carry positions overnight, but it is still a good exercise to do to help in the overall direction of the market.

I only took two trades today just at the end of the day. I netted around 4 points and only traded for about 15 minutes. I did take a counter trend trade as you can see in the screen shot below. I did not have a lot of time left in the day. I had a small target in mind and safely hit it.

The next trade was nice.  I don’t place stop orders to often to enter a position, but today it just seemed right. I placed an opening position, sell stop order below the market. If the market came down and touched the price, it stops me into the trade.  If I was wrong and the market continued to push up, I would have never been in the trade. That is the benefit of using this type of order. If the price does come down to hit my entry, then I am short and the likelihood of it continuing to go down is high.

I posted a video of the whole days turning points and you can see it by clicking the video gallery button at the top right hand corner of the screen, otherwise I just have a screen shot of the last hour.

That’s it for now. Short postings right now, but will be back with a good article for the weekend. Promise.

Good Trading,

Vince                P.S.  email me questions or comments, I like to hear from my readers, with thanks to those who have.

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