Archive for June, 2010

« Older Entries

Sell Off Continues in the Stock Market

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

Today is Wednesday June 30th and the markets had a little follow through to the sell off.

We saw the Dow shed around 95 points and the S&P -9 points for a continuation of the move short from 1066. There is more to go on the down side and have clearly broken and remain short under the 1042 area. I see 1006 or so in the S&P in the days ahead with a corresponding price of 9500 or so on the Dow. Currently the S&P futures are at 1025 and the Dow 9774.

Yesterday, I updated the daily charts and told my subscribers that same information about the continued sell-off. The natural flow of this market should take us down to the levels mentioned above. This continuation sell-off, started from the trigger point I mentioned after putting in the inside day from Mondays market. That trigger point is the number  1066. We did not get the short term rally I was looking for, but said, we needed to watch both sides of the market and should use 1066 as a trigger point for more selling. That number was hit in the premarket and we were in full sell mode on Tuesdays open.

The sentiment numbers came out and they did not budge, which says there is more selling to come before it gets into an oversold extreme scenario. A reading of 35% bullish will give the market power to move up. That is a minority position taken by investment newsletter writers who write for the subscribing public, who are invariably wrong more times than not.

Currently the numbers are 41.4 bullish. With another week of selling and downside pressure I will bet, this will be the trigger. It is funny how the market and the sentiment numbers will wait for each other to get in sync. We are seeing that played out now. We will get a pretty big trade-able bounce off of the lower levels mentioned, or at least that is what I now be looking for.

I did get up early here on the West Coast and trade on the open. My results are posted in the screen shot below. I took 9 trades with most of them split trades and racked up a bunch of points. I only had 1 point of total loss broken up into two .50 point losses on the S&P emini futures. I have some notes on my screen showing a thing or two, so feel free to check it out. (click two times to blow the chart up)

Anyone with questions please feel free to email me, I will be glad to answer.  Until next time, Good Trading.  Vince

Tags: , ,
Posted in Bear Market | No Comments »

Today’s Turning Points in the Sell Off

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

Today is Tuesday, June 29th and did not get the rally but the sell off as the Index’s drop across the board.

The Dow dropped 266 and the S&P over 30 points as we closed near the lows of the day. Yesterday I was expecting a rally and it did not happen. We put in an inside day which generally will cause the market to move big once either end of the range is broken. I pointed out that if 1066 got broken, then we will sell off, but should stay above 1042. We pushed the limit on the lower end going through that level briefly and closing right on top of it in the cash S&P and slightly below it in the futures. I will give the market a little wiggle room here and point out, if we get more of this selling tomorrow it should only feed on itself for some time.

The glimmer of hope is that we are flirting with a buy signal on the sentiment survey that I follow. With today’s sell off, it could drop the numbers into an extreme position, but won’t know that until tomorrow. If there is a change worth noting, I will put up a short blog post noting that early in the day. If there is no signal change, I will skip it and post the numbers in the evening.

No trading for me today as I am taking a break for a while. It would have been a good day to trade, but having the ability to not trade is just one more discipline I get to develop.

I do have a video below of the turning points as identified just by a couple of my indicators. Trading is a lot more involved than excellent indicators, but they can help. We teach and follow price movement apart from indicators. I know I have said that many times, but it can’t help be repeated. If you know how to read the price, you can write your own ticket. You will have insight into which trades to take and why. I would not be taking all the trades as identified below, but there is nothing wrong with any of the entries. The smaller time frame complements this chart and makes it easier to get in at these turning points. I can show more data with this larger chart, something different than I usually show.

Good Trading and be safe !

Tags: , ,
Posted in Trading Turning Points | No Comments »

Stock Market Puts in “An Inside Day”

Monday, June 28th, 2010

Today is Monday June 28th and the market puts in “an inside day” on low volume.

We had a slow day in the market across the board as the stock market put in “an inside day”. What do I mean by an inside day is, a tight range where prices stayed at or below Fridays highs and above Fridays lows, a slow narrow range with little movement. Usually you will see a big move out of this type of action and there is room on both sides of the equation.

I am looking for a move up and everything is still intact for that, but in case today’s low gets taken out tomorrow 1066.50 that would be a bearish development and would likely see prices go down further from there. It would almost be better if it did go down, which may get the bears to bite on an extreme view of the market, thus setting up for a big rally. The sentiment is close to giving a bull signal but it has not happened yet. It may not happen at all, if the market rally’s it will likely bring the numbers to the middle of the range at which point it could tank, but that is to far out to tell right now. I am a long term bear but not at these levels. If 1042 gets taken out, that is a different story.

Today just took one trade and is shown in the screen shot below. I am taking it easy for a few weeks, being summer. I may take time off of trading too, but not sure when.

That’s it for now, and will post again tomorrow, with more insight or lessons. Until then “Good Trading”

Tags: ,
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Traders Self Sabatoge

Sunday, June 27th, 2010

This post is for Friday’s market June 25th as the market did exactly what we expected in stabilizing itself from the multiple day decline.

The S&P futures ended the day up a few points as did the NASDAQ market. This is what I saw for Fridays session, that we would go down early on in the session and that in the afternoon, we would rally off the bottom and stabilize from the recent decline. That is what I posted in Thursdays blog posting and that is how it turned out, a good call.

Now that we are, “where we are”, what’s next. Well, from just a pure price action basis, we should bounce up from here. I am and will be looking for a move up from these levels. It could be just a few days producing a nice rally up of around 25 + points as there is strong resistance around 1108. I would expect a slight pause at those levels if reached. If this moves comes, then we will have drawn the lines in the sand so to speak for the next move after that, but one at a time. If this move does not come and for some reason we continue with a sell off, the 1044-ish area needs to hold at all cost or else. Currently at 1074 S&P futures.

—————————————————————————————————————————————————–

I would like to talk about a common problem with traders seeking to find there footing in the trading world. This is a common problem across a variety of markets traded. “Maintaining control while trading”. I know I have talked about that before somewhere in a previous blog.

Every trader brings with him or her, excess. What I mean by that is, emotional attachments that can effect there decision making. Trading discipline is just one of the ways to control some of these emotions but there is more. The way to see yourself is also very important. If you have failed in the past at other difficult ventures including trading, you may have negative emotions tied to your current attempt at tying to bring it all together.

Some would call it “baggage” and I guess we can call it that too, just to keep it simple. This baggage wears on our current self image and unless removed, can hold us back subconsciously. Often times, we will find ourselves taking trades that have nothing to do with our trading method or system. “Why”.  That is the big question.

Once traders get over the fear of “pulling the trading trigger”, they at times now think that they have a machine gun. Over trading is yet another negative end result from from unwanted actions. Again, we ask the question, “Why”. Every trader is different and they come to the table with all of this trading baggage that can weigh them down. It is often to much to bear and another unwanted end result can be self sabotage.

Self sabotage, can be a traders worst enemy, because of frustration and so many uncontrollable emotions, they may find themselves doing the very thing that they do not want to do. These are all results from not being able to stay in control while trading, exercising trading self discipline.

Everyone wants to be a successful trader and has there reasons why. Part of the solution can be found here. If yours is big enough, you will do what you have to in order to get a handle on your weaknesses. The very first step is to identify that you have a problem. Don’t run from the thought, but face it. Here is an exercise:  Write your strengths as a trader on one side of the page and your weakness on the other. Being honest with yourself is only going to get you where you want to be faster.

Now you can face your weaknesses and take steps to overcome them with a direct action plan. When you feel the urge to place a non method trade, ask yourself , does this trade meet my criteria for a method trade setup? If it does, you can not hesitate in pulling the trigger, but on the other hand, if it does not, taking a non method trade is will only continue to hurt you. You now know what you are not supposed to do and doing it anyway will continue to prove to yourself that you are not ready to trade live.

We as traders cannot fulfill all of our emotional needs in the trading arena, but that is what often happens. Our need to be right, is just one thing that hurt. We don’t need to be right every time we place a trade. If your assessment is wrong, chalk it up, learn from it and move on. If you insist on always being right lets say in your relationships or discussions with friends, then you are going to have a hard time as a trader. You need to give up your will to always be right, because you will inevitably be wrong at times along the way. This is another example of baggage that I mentioned above.

See yourself as you want to be and take steps in your personal life and trading life, to work towards that. Many people think that the two lives have nothing to do with one another, but I beg to differ. The two world get blended together.

Taking steps to reduce stress in your life will help your trading results. Being relaxed is yet another sign that you have the self discipline needed to trade your plan and you are OK with it. Stress, Kills.  Don’t trade if you are stressed out about anything. If will get transferred into your trading results and you won’t like what it produces.

As much as it is possible be at “Peace” with yourself and others. There are many ways to go about that and will be a topic for another day.

I hope this helped someone out there. Trading can be simple, but is rarely easy. If you need or want help in this area, I can help in addition to the solid trading method that I offer. Send me an email if you want to turn things around.

Good Trading, Vince !

Tags: ,
Posted in Trading Psychology, Uncategorized | No Comments »

Looking for Support in the Index’s

Thursday, June 24th, 2010

Today is Thursday June 24th and the market continued to pull back continuing its losses coming off the recent run up.

We did continue pulling back and would say that if we were going to take a stand, tomorrow should be it. The sell-off should slow down and we should try and mount a reaction rally to this move down. The important move is going to be after that. We will have created a pivot and a new line in the sand if we get a rally from here. That will tell the story. If it holds, we will go up quickly to possibly even test the old high. If it does not we will see a test of the lows or at least a move to the 1040-1050 area.  The 1040 area needs to hold at all cost. I wrote about that last week and that is key very important support. A break of that level will usher in a massive about of selling.

Before we get to far ahead, which I need to remember not to do, lets just take it one step at a time. The next move looks like a rally up over the next few days. We could see early selling and reaction rally later in the session. The market did close on the lows of the day and is usually a sign of opening weakness although the night futures are currently up. That does not mean to much and think the market will hold or contain the selling and end the day up.

It is the likely spot for the market to make a stand, even if it is going to fail days latter. That will be apart of the next move and I don’t want to get ahead of myself. Look for prices to hold on Fridays session. That is what I will be looking for. If we sell off fiercely, I will be objective and you should too. Do not ever insist on your will over the markets. Keep an open mind, because we can all be wrong at any given moment. Just look for the easy and obvious trades.

That is what we do, look at the daily, to give us an idea of how the day could end up, on the highs of the day or the lows of the day, but always follow the price action, not what you think.

Today I did take a few trades and don’t have time to mark up screen like I often do, so an equity chart today. Still traveling in the Bay Area and hope to home bound tomorrow afternoon.

I promise to write a good educational trading article for the weekend so check back for that over the weekend for sure.

Good Trading and be safe.

Tags: , ,
Posted in Market Call | No Comments »

Another Big Market Call Completed to within one tick

Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010

Today is Wednesday, and we reached another large daily turning point call for +49 S&P points within one tick.

We reached the next target area that I called after the upside target had been reached. We got to 1129 after calling for a rally when we were in the 1050 area with confirmation at 1073. I called for 1122 minimum with the average price 1132. We hit the 1129 as mentioned and then called for another reversal to 1080. Today we hit 1080.25 and moved up 11 S&P points just after that. That was a 49 point move and coming within one tick.  Another two big calls back to back.

Today the Sentiment numbers came out and they actually did not go down to the the trigger point that I was looking for. Again, it drags on and actually shifted back up a few percent to 41.1 % bullish, from 37%. This is not yet a signal for the big move that would surely come after such a signal would produce when given.

Currently I have no move that I see in the large time frames. I will need a day or so to see how the market finishes this move. There could be more to the downside, but just holding on making any new daily market call right now.

I am traveling in the San Francisco Bay Area for the rest of the week and did not trade today. I had a good excuse with the Fed Decision on interest rates today. There is really nothing wrong with not trading on a day like today.

I do have a chart of the last few hours of the day, showing the action after the fed decision. It was not a very spectacular Fed day, but, I did see some indecision in the charts as there was a choppiness to some of the action.

My custom trade indicators are showing exactly where you could have taken a piece out of the markets. Trading for 2-4 points total for a  session is not hard, if you know when to go long or short. Having a guide to help you stay out of the trade is just as important as knowing when to get into one. “Timing” is King, but learning how to trade the price is invaluable. When you have both, you just could be unstoppable. What is that worth to you ?

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Market Call | No Comments »

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 6-23-10

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Today is Tuesday, June 22nd and the market is acting right in line with my previous reversal call.

On Sunday afternoon, my post that day called for a reversal once the target area was reached as it was in Mondays market, exactly as called. In that Sunday post, I said that we were going to the target area and would see a reversal day with the next move back down to the 1080 area at a minimum. It could go farther, but we should see those prices very shortly. Today’s market we were off -147 on the Dow and -20 points on the S&P emini futures at 1090.

We are on our way to another good market call of +50 S&P points, right behind the +50 point call I had days before. It is a good feeling to able to see and call out market direction.

With today’s and yesterdays action, I would be thinking that this move down may push the sentiment numbers to the downside, kicking in a buy signal at 35% or lower. If we get it, I will report it here as soon as it comes in. Currently we stand at 37% and very close to a strong buy if those numbers come in.

These numbers are the Investment newsletter writers opinion on market direction. They work in the exact opposite way you would think. If only 35% or less of these newsletter writers believe that the market is going to go up, a minority position, then it will go against them and there call. This leaves a lot of skepticism, fear and anxiety, just what you need for the market to advance. The majority is never usually right.

So, look for a move tomorrow  into the 1080 area or better. I could see the market moving short early in the session and holding as the Federal Reserve will be posting there interest rate decision around 11:15 West Coast or 2:15 New York time.  The Federal Reserve interest rate decisions have not been as big a deal over the last few months, but I have a feeling that this one will bring in much more volume and movement then we have seen recently. It will be a big day tomorrow and I would exercise caution for all traders.

Many traders take this day off as the emotions will be running wild for sure. Today’s S&P trades below. I also have a U-Tube Video of my first trades which can be accessed in the top right corner of this website under “Video Gallery” if you care to watch. Good Trading and be safe.

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Market News | No Comments »

Market Reversal – Just as called in Yesterdays Posting

Monday, June 21st, 2010

Hello, this is Vince and today is June 21st, moving right into summer, very welcomed on my side.

With summer, is a time of change, transition and new ventures. I know that in the Marble Mountain Wilderness of where I live in Northern California, it is a time of exploring new trails, unseen alpine lakes and new adventures of which I live every year. I never tire of this outdoor life, as I can always balance it, with city interaction of which I often do.

Transition and change is apart of life. New growth and plant life constantly springs up before my eyes. This is the same growth that I see in some of my students. It is a pure joy to know that there are real people on the other end of my trading method whose lives are being changed for the better. This is my dream and I am living it. To give back to others and allow them to live there trading dream is what does it for me. I don’t look to and on myself here, because I have all I need.

In today’s trading, we did see the target area hit that I talked about over a week ago and updated in yesterday afternoons blog post. The minimum target was 1122 and the average target area was 1132. Today we hit just under 1130 in the S&P emini futures and satisfied that target area goal.

The second part of that was the underlined portioned of yesterdays update, calling for a reversal of the upmove under way in the premarket. I did give myself a small out, by allowing for the completion of this reversal to come in on Tuesday, but the emphasis was on Mondays gap move higher. We were up over 150 points on the Dow and equivalent amounts on the S&P and NASDAQ,  only to pull back to end the day down across the board.

That is what you would call a reversal day. Move out substantially higher and end the day down. That does not happen that often and for me to call that one again, there has to more to the markets than just “random theory” as many try and identify the markets as.

This is part of the language that I have often mentioned, when reading the markets. Either you know it or you don’t. If you don’t and want to learn, you will have to take a concrete action to change that which you do not know. It will not come to you in a dream or by accident. It will come with purpose and clarity. “If you call it, it will come”.  I borrow that line, but changed it a bit to make a point.

If you call Sniper Day Trading, you will see it now and be able to apply it to current price action that takes place each day. If you are not interested in being profitable on almost every trading session, that is OK, that is your choice. If, on the other hand it is something that you dream of, then take a step in the right direction to make it a reality.

I don’t need to or have too try and convince those who want to see change to do so. Either you want results and a solid foundation to build upon or “you can try and figure it out on your own”.

That is what I did and it took umpteen years ( a long time).  I made up a new word, I think. O’ well. I have something to offer, for those who are searching. If you think you have what it takes to make it, God Bless you and I wish you all well, really. If you have questions and want to bounce a few idea’s off of me, I am game. (email me) I do want to help. My answers will be somewhat limited, but surprise me and who knows what I may tell.

But for those who want to know the “whole story”, don’t ride the fence to long. I don’t charge to much when compared to others, but think that I am affordable enough for most traders to build there foundation upon.

I truly believe you will not be sorry. I have the time right now. I am coming off of some training that I have recently done and do have time to pour into a few more students who are interested in becoming profitable on a regular basis.

Its not all about the money, but I do expect to be paid for my knowledge and expertise in this area.

————————————————————————————————————————————————

I posted a chart of today’s trades above and had a pretty good day. With the Nasdaq trades I took, it was around 1K.   I would consider that a good day. I only had a 2 tick loss on one trade today in the S&P as shown above. The trade indicators are working as they always do, because the market always trades in the same fashion one way or another, choppy or trending. I have tools and screens for both, but my T-2 screen will do the job for both if you want to camp on this one trade screen setup. We do have and use higher time frames that are synergistic in nature,  to give us clarity in direction, all apart of the trading method.

Good Trading to everyone who follows me and my blog. If you need help, whether it is a question or you want to ask for my free branded book on, “The Power Of Concentration”, just ask, its free and I won’t be hounding you to sign up for this or that. This e-book can really help those who apply it wisdom to there trading, to better focus on there objectives, profitability, (a key for most).

Until next time, Vince over and out.

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Market Call | No Comments »

Market Update and Recap of Next Market Move

Sunday, June 20th, 2010

Vince here from Sniper Day Trading, showing an extra week end post for Friday’s session on the S&P emini’s.

I have a recap of Fridays session on the S&P’s narrow range (only 8 points) and comments on the pre-market move of the S&P futures. There seems to be a very good move under way which should carry forward into Mondays session and push the market index’s up after the open.

Just one note on the price range we are currently hitting. This is now at a very minimum, satisfied the price objective that I called for on June 9ths blog post. Over a week ago while the market had closed the session at 1051.25 I said that we were at a breaking point and was leaning for a move to the upside but was cautious of a break to new lows. With a break of the days highs at 1073 (new contract price) we will quickly be on our way to a minimum of 1122 to 1142 with taking 1132 as the middle average. Currently we are at 1126.75 in the pre-market move Sunday afternoon.

From the days close 6 trading sessions ago at 1051 to today’s price of 1126 that is a 75 S&P point move. When you take it from the break out which really confirmed the move 5 trading days ago, that is still a 54 point trading move. That move was the easy and obvious to me and is what I would be looking at if trading a small tick chart just the same. When you know how to trade small time frames, you can trade any time frame and any trading instrument. In monitoring my own calls for large moves like this, I have done amazing well. I don’t remember one big turning point that was a clear miss on these daily time frames.

I did get a little confused with the move after this one, which I did mention last week, but that did not change the direction or call of this current move. The sentiment numbers are very close to a large buy signal. The market can pull back into the S&P 1080 area and should hold somewhere in there, but if it breaks 1040 that is going to produce selling of great proportion. So, may be I should not project that far out and just focus now on the next move, which would be a move back down to the area mentioned 1080.

I would not be surprised to see a big reversal of this move up here on Mondays session. I have checked the individual Dow charts and it does look like there is resistance overhead at least for the short run. It could run up to the higher end of the range 1142 but we will just have to wait and see.  My only point right now is be on the look out for a reversal today or tomorrow back down. We should get one producing a large retracement back. I will keep you undated on what I think going forward.

Video of the small trading range on Friday’s S&P futures

Tags: , , ,
Posted in Market Call | No Comments »

Price Action Trading – Key to Long Term Success

Friday, June 18th, 2010

Today is Friday June 18th and the markets were up only slightly, calling it flat.

Another basically flat day across the board. The Dow did move up a bit more than the other index’s and basically touched a similar area and or number that would correspond to the S&P number I was watching 1122, which has not yet been hit.

I know a lot of people are calling for this market to drop and the level of bearishness has increased over the last 7 weeks from only 18% to currently 32% now. This is the largest bearish reading we have had in 15 months. If a minority position develops in the bullish camp to 35% or under over the coming weeks, I can not help but see a rally coming behind that. I might not be seeing something in the individual Dow Charts as of yet and will be taking a closer look to try and gain some insight, but for now we will just have to wait.

Either way the market moves, as short term traders and day traders, we only need to listen to what it is saying. It has a message for traders each day and tells you when to go long or short, but do you know how to here its voice? Many traders do, but most do not. Trading is about timing and trade and money management. If you have it, you push forward, if you don’t, you look, search, read, ponder, guess, analyze in the hopes of trying to figure out the formula of success.

The bottom line, people are not born with understanding how to do this. Logic and reason are not a large help, so being intelligent will not always help you. Understanding how the rhythm of the market moves is a learned trait and would take literally many years to just get a basic understanding of its nuances on your own.  Most traders will have there account equity drained long before they get to the point of understanding. Which brings me to a very noticeable observation. To many traders are relying on call rooms to give them the answers that they need to know and find out for themselves.

Call rooms or trading rooms that give out market calls most often do not explain why a trade is a buy or sell, but make the call for those to follow. Traders end up placing trades without the understanding of why. They do not have an understanding of “Support and Resistance” and how that applies to there positions. Support and Resistance, is just one aspect of trading that goes overlooked. You are not going to learn most often how to trade in a trading room, unless the moderator is clearly showing why, where and when the price will break away from an area and give the reasons.

At that point, it could be a benefit, if you are involved in the process. If the trades are called out, Long at 1105.50 and you follow it, what have you gained. You are dependent on someone else to give you your “daily bread”, not a good idea. Even if it works out, which most do not, you are actually hurting yourself from gaining and achieving your long term trading goals as your mind is not focused on learning how to trade and understanding the probable path of price.

Good traders know how to interpret the “Price Action” of any trading instrument. You will not be dependent on trading indicators, on trading rooms, or anything else but yourself, because you have learned the secret language the market gives off each day.   Sniper Day Trading teaches that language and also mentors you through the process of understanding that trading language.

I know traders are enamored with trading indicators, but they are only a reflection of the price. When you understand how to read the price action of the price bars themselves, you will be moving in the right direction. That is what I mean when I talk about understanding this trading language. The market will tell you what to do, as the evidence mounts overwhelmingly to one side of the equation.

I have talked about this recently, but I only repeat myself to be sure everyone is listening. Trading indicators can be a big plus for many and I do use them. I often trade without them as well, to make sure I am not building up a crutch on anything outside of reading the price action itself.

Recently I have been putting up only a couple of my indicators to show that if you follow them, you will be able to make money consistently. You will not have to trade all day long, as you will probably make mistakes, I know I do at times when I trade all day. The point is, taking a couple of hours or less, depending on your goals, you could make money consistently by just following the custom indicators and setup I offer. That is really not the ultimate goal although it may be for some. Learning why the indicators are saying buy or sell is what you should be after. Then you will have the confidence and conviction to place your orders and expect the market to move in your favor.

If you want to reach your trading goals, you have to do something different than what you are doing now. If you expect different results and do the same as you have before, you cannot reasonably expect different results. The law of  “action reaction” would apply here as it does in the stock market.

I am here to help. It is not all about the money, money can be made quickly in any given trading session. Giving back to those who want to improve there trading and realize there goals brings a lot of satisfaction to me. I have also seen my personal trading improve as I teach my trading method.

I will leave you this. I spoke to one of my students this week and I was so happy for him to see his trading results improve. He was a struggling trader who reached out for help. He told me, he has not had a loosing day in the last three weeks. He trades only one contract and does trade a few different markets, but is making $350 to $700 dollars a day     ( trades one market at a time -S&P, Gold, Oil, Russell) . He understands the language and is able to read it clearly. He see’s price structure the way it should be approached and again, I am so happy for him, you can not believe it. He is too, by the way. He knows that he will be able to make his living from trading and is just beginning to live his dreams.                                                                     ” HOW ABOUT YOU”   Good Trading to all, Vince.


Tags: , , ,
Posted in Price Action | No Comments »

« Older Entries