Today is Wednesday February 10th and the market ended the day down slightly, -2 on the S&P and -20 on the Dow.

I have been sick the last couple of days and was not able to get a post in yesterday. I did trade for a few minutes yesterday and picked up some nice quick easy trades. Today I traded as well, but I don’t know exactly what I was thinking. This needs to be one of those lessons I need to learn from. Don’t trade if you are sick, pretty simple. ( I didn’t get the memo, lol.)

I started off with a two point gain and another for a point and half or so and that should have done it. But I traded way more than I should have, given that fact that I was not all there. Crazy. The day worked out still fine. I did pick up my daily goal, but what I don’t like is making poor trading decisions under terrible conditions, being sick. I usually only use a very small stop and if my concentration is not there I could see a daily stop out for me, of -4 points. I have not had one in a long time and I want to keep it that way.

This is one of the reasons I write this blog. To get on myself when I mess up. Some may thing I am being hard on myself and I am. If I am not hard on myself, then who is going to. I still made an equivelent of about 3 1/2 points after commissions, but that is not the point. If I start taking non method trades, eventually it will catch up and cause me to be stopped out for the day.

The beauty of having disciple enough to stick to a daily stop-loss point is because if you do something crazy, or what ever, the worst thing that is going to happen is that you have a manageable small loss on the day. When I ask myself, what is the worst thing that can happen to me today. I always know what the answer to that question is, that in itself, takes the pressure off or makes it easier.

Anyway, the price action was great yesterday. I did see some really good moves, just before the big reversal, wow, nice rally’s and price movement up until the afternoon and the same for today. Both days afternoon sessions have been choppy and not exactly what we expect. The early sessions have been pretty good, but you do get some choppy swings at times. It does not seem to last more than 15 or 20 minutes though.

From Mondays post, I remember saying that if we were able to get above 1063 on the cash S&P we would soon see 1071. If we are able to get above 1071, we soon see 1077-1080. Over 80 we will see 1097-1109.

Well, we got the first three exactly. The high was 1079.28 on the cash. That is exactly where we sold off and was the high for the day. The market closed off about 10 points from that high. We did not yet see the last part of that and it could come tomorrow or the start of it. In fact, we are in middle ground now and it actually go either way.

Today was an inside day. Todays trading range is inside of yesterdays and when that happens, you are getting the build up necessary for a big move. We have been basing for three days now since the sell off and as I said, it could still go either way. I would say that the odds are it goes up to hit the upper targets I mentioned. On the dow, it looks like about 300 points plus. The either way, is an equal distance down as well.

If we go up to hit that upper target, I don’t think it will hold. That being said, I would like to see the sentiment numbers that came out yesterday and will be published tomorrow. (Market Harmonic’s) has it there for free, with a two-day delay.

That is about all I can write, when I am feeling better, I will post some good information and continue with helpful things that may help us all in the battle to over-come.

Good Trading !

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Tags: market direction, market volatility, S&P 500