Archive for February, 2010

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Stock Newsletter Writers, are they right, this time ?

Friday, February 12th, 2010

Today is Thursday February 11th and the market did in fact have a good size move today. Dow up over 100 pts, S&P +12.

Well, we did see the up move in today’s action. Yesterday I did say that it could go either way and that is obvious, but the odds were that it makes the move up, was the call. We were on a tipping point, one way or another and it leaned up.

We did again have resistance at that 1080 level that was a problem a couple of days ago, well, we are back and knocking on the door. The market is in a good position to make its move right from here. I don’t have my charts up right now, it is  Thursday evening and the night trading may anticipate the move and try and get a jump on it. That is just what I remember from todays close, strong and at the high of the days range.

Speaking of ranges, we did come out of that inside day of pressure from yesterday. That is most often the case, when you get squeezed from both ends like yesterday.

I checked the Investor intelligence market survey of newsletter writers with this weeks numbers and yet again, the numbers drop. That makes it 5 weeks in a row and we stand at 34.1% Bullish. That is much better than it was 5 weeks ago. A reading of 35% or less is considered Bullish for the markets and you can expect a move up of some significance. I am a little surprise as I mentioned about this last week where we were at 38.9%. I had said that if the market sells of or stays underwater for a spell, until the survey is again taken on Tuesdays close, it may sway these guys to lose their bullish stand and lean to the bearish camp. Well, it worked and it made the numbers drop, like almost 5%, putting us in the bullish rally camp. Isn’t that something. Well, we didn’t have the big rally yet, but its a start.

Most of these writers are trend followers and by the time they get the feeling that the market is going to drop it already has. They become bearish, tell the world with there 10’s of thousands of newsletters, which sways public opinion to the short side, just at the moment the market decides to put the short squeeze on all the bears and make them run for cover. Happens every time.

That is how it works out in theory, but in reality, I have seen that happen as many times as I have had birthdays, that would be 47. Is this time any different? Probably not. I don’t like to base investment decisions on stuff like this, but it is something to consider when you put all of the pieces of the puzzle together.

We should rally enough to drive the excess off of the weak numbers and at least put us somewhere in the middle of the range, that would sentiment here. That should be the case in the S&P as well. With a reading like this, I would say, it is very possible for the market to rally all the way back up. That was not something I was actually looking for right now, but this does bring in the very possibility. The market will tell us, that is 100 % for sure. We just need to wait and see. Anyone with long-term short position, I only say, be careful as we all should.

In todays trading, it was quick and easy. I don’t like using that word. Thats when you can get blind sided. We always have to keep our guard up, drop it, think it is a walk in the park and the market will humble you quick. So, I reluctantly use that word today. I took a few trades, basically only had one market move. I had a touch of indecision but finally got it right. Going from memory, I think it was like this; flat, /-2 ticks, /+2 point, +4.25 pts, +3 points/ -2 tick small size,(1). 

I have a video of it below, but not to sure of the quality. I am trying out new software and not to familiar with it, so bear with me on that.

That is it for now, still under the weather, but hope to be better soon. Thanks for tuning in.

Good Trading !

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The S & P is Getting Ready for a good move, which way?

Thursday, February 11th, 2010

Today is Wednesday February 10th and the market ended the day down slightly, -2 on the S&P and -20 on the Dow.

I have been sick the last couple of days and was not able to get a post in yesterday. I did trade for a few minutes yesterday and picked up some nice quick easy trades. Today I traded as well, but I don’t know exactly what I was thinking. This needs to be one of those lessons I need to learn from. Don’t trade if you are sick, pretty simple. ( I didn’t get the memo, lol.)

I started off with a two point gain and another for a point and half or so and that should have done it. But I traded way more than I should have, given that fact that I was not all there. Crazy. The day worked out still fine. I did pick up my daily goal, but what I don’t like is making poor trading decisions under terrible conditions, being sick. I usually only use a very small stop and if my concentration is not there I could see a daily stop out for me, of -4 points. I have not had one in a long time and I want to keep it that way.

This is one of the reasons I write this blog. To get on myself when I mess up. Some may thing I am being hard on myself and I am. If I am not hard on myself, then who is going to. I still made an equivelent of about 3 1/2 points after commissions, but that is not the point. If I start taking non method trades, eventually it will catch up and cause me to be stopped out for the day.

The beauty of having disciple enough to stick to a daily stop-loss point is because if you do something crazy, or what ever, the worst thing that is going to happen is that you have a manageable small loss on the day. When I ask myself, what is the worst thing that can happen to me today. I always know what the answer to that question is, that in itself, takes the pressure off or makes it easier.

Anyway, the price action was great yesterday. I did see some really good moves, just before the big reversal, wow, nice rally’s and price movement up until the afternoon and the same for today. Both days afternoon sessions have been choppy and not exactly what we expect. The early sessions have been pretty good, but you do get some choppy swings at times. It does not seem to last more than 15 or 20 minutes though.

From Mondays post, I remember saying that if we were able to get above 1063 on the cash S&P we would soon see 1071. If we are able to get above 1071, we soon see 1077-1080. Over 80 we will see 1097-1109.

Well, we got the first three exactly. The high was 1079.28 on the cash. That is exactly where we sold off and was the high for the day. The market closed off about 10 points from that high. We did not yet see the last part of that and it could come tomorrow or the start of it. In fact, we are in middle ground now and it actually go either way.

Today was an inside day. Todays trading range is inside of yesterdays and when that happens, you are getting the build up necessary for a big move. We have been basing for three days now since the sell off and as I said, it could still go either way. I would say that the odds are it goes up to hit the upper targets I mentioned. On the dow, it looks like about 300 points plus. The either way, is an equal distance down as well.

If we go up to hit that upper target, I don’t think it will hold. That being said, I would like to see the sentiment numbers that came out yesterday and will be published tomorrow. (Market Harmonic’s) has it there for free, with a two-day delay.

That is about all I can write, when I am feeling better, I will post some good information and continue with helpful things that may help us all in the battle to over-come.

Good Trading !

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Following the Market

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

Today is Monday, February 8th and the market pulled back a bit off its highs of the day.

That is to be expected, but what happens in two or three days from now will be important. If tomorrow remains an inside day, that will make the case for a potential good size rally on Wednesday. We will see. I have some numbers that I quickly wrote down earlier. This is in the cash market, not futures. First, if the down trend is really slowing, we will need to get over 1063, if we do there may be a shot to 1071. If 1071 gets taken out, we should see 77-80 on the cash. If 1080 gets taken out, there is a chance we could see 1097-1109.

Those are all bullish scenario’s. I have not really looked at the bearish scenario as of yet. This is just some quick figuring I did and saw for the market if yesterdays rally is a short term reversal day. If tomorrow does remain inside of today’s trading range, that could build pressure enough to hit those numbers I just mentioned. 

The S&P is in a parallel downtrend. It has clear boundaries above and below. The last figure a gave above, targets of 1097 to 1109, will only be met if the boundaries are breached. The other targets long, can be hit in the confines of the overall downtrend.

On the downside, the current limits seem to be 9700 on the Dow and 1040 on the S&P.  As I mentioned last week that a lower close of the index on Friday will turn the weekly momentum chart down. It did and now, the weekly, the daily and the 120 minute charts are all pointing down clearly.

With that said, keep your mind open as to the next move. The market can always rally at any time. If it did come tomorrow, it is in a spot to do so. The retracement from todays market puts us in between the Fibonacci retracement zones that are popular with traders. This is also just a natural pull back from the big late day rally on Friday. What happens from here, we will have to see tomorrows market. The last three hours of todays market was under pressure. If a rally was going to happen, it could make an attempt from here. Tomorrows price action will tell us.

Today, I started a little earlier,  I had only taken a few trades, they were quick and pretty easy. I have been trading the afternoon session, which has been easier for me to get ready, verse a 5 am wake up call. Some day.

I saw a potential runner around 10 am, and closed it out for a small gain, around 1 point.  Having split targets gives you the ability to release yourself from the pressure and more comfortably allow the market to do its thing.  I try and not cry about things like that, but it happens. It did run to where I thought it might, without me for +4 point move. I picked out a few other spots and called it a day.   

Thats going to be it for today. I will have something more interesting to say tomorrow, so stay tuned.

Good Trading, Vince

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Trading with Time, Tick, Volume or Range Charts, which is better!

Monday, February 8th, 2010

Today is Sunday February 7th and as mentioned in yesterday’s post,  I will discuss the differences of time charts vs tick charts and a couple of other kinds of charts most people are not even aware of, volume charts and range charts.

Time charts are what most traders are used to using, although tick charts have gained in popularity in recent years. Day Traders mostly use time charts and I would have to say the 80-20 rule here would apply. I can’t back that up with any stats, but that is what I believe it is.

Recently back in October last year, the (CME) Chicago mercantile Exchange, changed the way that they report tick data. It has caused a lot of confusion for traders as many did not know of the change and just started seeing the bar activity increasing on the chart. Depending on the trading method that they use, it could have caused problems. It could be hard to identify what you are looking for with all the activity on the screen. I am sure it even caused many to go back to time based charts.

I noticed it right away and took action to recreate the data after a little research. What ever the tick count you used to use, you should multiple that by 2.3 times the original is our best estimate to get things back to what it was before the change. I realize that this is old news, but I have more to say on the matter, so hang in there.

The other difference is that when the volume really picks up, like on Friday, where we had around 4 million contracts traded, you have to do some adjusting. The charts will be moving a lot faster than you are used to and that is the main reason I am talking about the subject. In November and December, we were barely hitting 1.5 million contracts per day. Friday was the highest that I have seen in a long time. The reversal probably had something to do with it. So the point is, don’t be afraid to adjust your chart settings to compensate, but do it proportionately to any of the higher time frame charts that are using.

The benefits of using Tick charts still out weigh any negatives. Tick charts give you a much more detailed view of the days price action and allows you to narrow down your entry price much better.

Let me give two other kinds of day trading charts that have gotten much more popular recently. In fact, some think this is  the new thing, giving some the edge and that is the use of Range Charts and Volume charts. Some people do not know a thing about it and that is another reason for the post. I am still researching it for myself, but I looked at the two kinds of charts and I would have to say, I do like them. Volume charts are very similar to tick charts, but the bars are placed by volume, just like the description says.

In my brief analysis of the two, a 10,000 contract chart is equal to about 2100 tick chart, about 5 times greater. That would suggest that the average trade on the S&P eminis is 5 contracts per trade or tick. The contract chart is going to add up all the volume based on total contracts bought and sold and the tick charts are going to count the actual trades that have gone off and when 2100 is reached, it will post a bar. I have noticed slight differences, like more big volume from large institutional traders at certain area’s and less bars posted at reversal tops, suggesting that the small traders are getting sucked in before the reversal. It is not a very large difference, but I can see it. Prices are posted the same as far as that goes.

The last type of data  charts is called, Range Charts and this is what I hear is the next big thing. I did look at these, but I have yet to make a conclusion. The basic idea is, if you put as an input say 6 tick range on the S&P. A bar will post when the range is 6 ticks from high to low and not before. It does not matter how long it takes, but when that condition is met, a bar is posted. The movement is calculated and then plotted. Trade Station is what I use and they have this in their platform. I am not sure about other vendors, but if it interests you, I am sure you can find out.

Now you know the different types of charts that are available. . If their is interest, I can help those who have more questions in this area. I can help give you the corresponding tick chart settings to match the time charts you are using and if you have any other trading questions I would happy to answer them too, so please feel free to ask.

Below is a 500 tick chart of the S&P 500 eminis and a 1 minute chart.

Good Trading, Vince

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Reversal Day on Wall Street – right on schedule

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

Hello, today is Saturday February 6th and this post is for Fridays session, what a reversal !

Reversal Day on Wall Street right on schedule, is todays blog title. The Dow was down 167 points at its worst point and ended the day up +10. The S&P did something similar, down over 20 points and close up 3 points on the cash market.

It was good to see a little buying come in, to keep the bears on their toes. Wall Street is always a two-way street, don’t forget that. If you had it in your mind that today was a down day all day, you were wrong, it happens. The point is, don’t let your guard down. This is exactly why you get days like this. The majority of traders gets locked into thinking one way. When things start going against that, at first they rationalize, then they try to talk it back down, then they start praying, and then its to late and they through in the towel and buy back there short positions.

Those short early on, gave back all the gains they thought they had and then some. It is not a good weekend for those caught in that on Friday. There were clues, that today was a reversal day. Early on there was some fast looking action, but some real nice turns going on in the S&P futures.

I started my day again in the afternoon session, around 11 am West Coast. The day went pretty well. I was able to pick up some large moves, for me anyway. I stayed in and did not scale out like I usually do, because I saw what was coming. One of the trades was for 8.50 points average and a few others for several points more. I have a video of it below, if you care to see. It wasn’t perfect, but trading never is, close enough.

I did say the day before, that it was more likely that a spick down would happen first before a big bounce, than holding the line and attempting to rally. We now might see that 1080 hear pretty soon. The market did go a little farther down than I thought it might, but that is not unusual, if a reversal was in the mix.

We closed at the highs of the day and even posted gains across the board in the Major Market Index’s.

I will be slipping a post for tomorrow about the benefits of using Tick Charts over Minute Charts. So come back for that one, it will be up mid day West Coast time.

Enjoy the rest of the week-end,Super Bowl Sunday tomorrow.

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Building Solid Mental Foundation for Day Trading

Thursday, February 4th, 2010

Today is Wednesday February 3rd and I picked up my goal today with a few small trades and wrapped it up. I did see a lot of potential trades I could have taken today, but I was satisfied to stop with 2 points. Below is a follow up from yesterday post.

I find it very interesting two days ago as I first made mention of a post “Face your Day-Trading Weaknesses with change”. In that post I talked about how important mental fitness is in the life of a day trader. If we ignore the things that are holding us back and refuse to face and deal with it, we will not be moving forward but backwards, staying true to form with the majority of other traders.

We need to do different things than the majority and be strong enough to face our fears and challenge ourselves in the area’s that hurt. That is where change is going to come from, identifying our weaknesses and building on our strengths. As I mentioned already, failing to do so, we will only find ourselves repeating the same day trading error again and again, to our destructive amazement. That is no way to make it to the top.

In keeping with the theme, yesterday I made mention of a man who puts out really good material to help all people, but it is so applicable to “Day Trading and Trading for a Living”  

 It is very similar to what I have talked about and although it is not earth shattering, it is simple, practical and what we all need to be doing. You would think that something as elementary as this would not be that hard to do, but it can be some of the hardest things to face and overcome.

His post is from February 3rd, and the title is called “Examine your weaknesses”. The February 4 th post is all so true. The site is called “The Daily Motivator”.

Some may find it strange that I am promoting another guys blog or website without personal gain to me, but this site is more than about me. It is a way of helping traders see what it is that they need to do, in order to find success. I feel my trading program will help many as well, because I do offer a road map and some personal mentoring to help those who choose, find their way. If you already have a trading method or plan that you are following, that is fine, but for those that need one, it is always available.

 
That is a lot to swallow in one sitting, but you can take it slow. Make a list of your trading problems. Start with the biggest to the smallest. Clearly identify what it is you are consistently doing wrong and go to the next one and write it all out. This should be in your trading journal as all of us should have one. As you go down the list, try to be as honest as you can. No one will see this, just you, so expose your weaknesses.
 
Now, think of what it is going to take to start changing what you are doing. If you are trading live and your trading equity is slowing going down, that is the first thing you need to do. STOP TRADING. See, that may not be what you want to here, but it is tough medicine. It is only until you get yourself situated. To stop trading is hard, especially if your trading account is funded and ready to go, but unless you stop momentarily, you will end up blowing your account out. Treat your trading funds as though it was the blood in your veins. You need that blood to stay alive, lose it and you die.
 
If you have no plan or trading method that is clearly written out with rules and objectives, that could be your first order of business. Trading without this, is like setting sail for England without a map, compass and other navigational tools, hoping that you will find it if you just go east.  The odds are probably about the same, not good.
 
If you have that already, you need to be sure that what you are following is sound and will be applicable to a variety of market conditions. We rarely see the same market on a regular basis, that is why system trading does not live up to its claims. If your plan or method is rock solid, then you need to follow it. There may be reasons why you struggle to follow it and that may be a lack of confidence in your ability to perform when conditions are right. You may need more time to practice your method and build your confidence, so take the extra time you need before you jump back in and build the mental side of your trading so the two can become one, success will follow.
 
If anyone is in need of a “Trading Method” that works and some “Mentoring” to go along with it, I offer both. Visit, www.sniperdaytrading.com and see the possibilities.

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The Key To Living Your Day Trading Dreams !

Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010

Today is Tuesday February 2nd and the market showed some nice upside follow through from yesterdays rally.

The market did react like I thought it would today, which is always nice to see. I hold any opinions about direction very lightly. The market can always do something different, so I can not make my trading plans around what I think will happen in the future. If I do, I run the risk of trying to force my will on the market and that is never a good idea. For fun, I will put up yesterdays comment.

Yesterdays Blog comments: I do see some pretty strong over-head resistance just a couple of points higher from todays close. We very well may see a slight rise on the open, followed by a pull back down inside the range one more time, before we make another attempt to break out of the downtrend. We will see what tomorrow brings, it should be good. I think the price action is going to get better, with good swings in both directions.

The cash market closed yesterday at 1089.30 and we pushed ahead a couple of points to 1092 and then fell back inside the resent range back down to 1088. The resent range was 1084 low, to 1092 high and back into the middle range at 1088. Then the breakout occurred and with conviction closing at the highs of the day +14 points on the S&P and +111 on the Dow Jones. We could see 10-15 points plus more before this reaction rally runs out of gas. We may struggle here a bit first, there is some overhead resistance near by, but over the next few days it would seem that the short-term momentum is up. Cash S&P 1007  to 1017 should be the destination point. The daily momentum is pointing down pretty decisively, but it is normal price action for the market to recover some here first, before its next move unfolds.

Today I took only three trades and it was in the afternoon session. They were for -1 tick first trade / +5 ticks, +8 ticks/ and +10 ticks second trade / and the last trade was for +3 tick and +5 ticks. I traded for 35 minutes and wrapped it up. I have a video of the trades below.

Yesterday, I started to share something with you and did not have enough time to finish, so I will get right into it here.

I was saying, that I know there are many traders who know how to trade well, but it seems that there are some unseen things that just keep holding them back from getting to the profit column. This will apply to traders who are just starting out and want to live the dream as well. Both people in these groups need something that goes beyond trading the charts. They need a solid mental foundation to build upon.

If you try to build a skyscraper and do not do a ground survey, you don’t know how the weight of the building is going to impact your foundation. If the proper work is not done, the building could be in jeopardy some time down the road. Well, that is exactly where many traders find themselves. Their building is going up and something is wrong, but they don’t know what it is. It is starting to lean-to the left and you realize there is a problem. The foundation may be shored up after a survey is now finally done, but there are times that the best decision is to bring the building down and start over.

So, if you are not to far along in your trading career and can learn this point, you will save money and potentially be on the road to financial freedom. If you have many years into it and have not discovered some of the essential things that will complement your trading career, now is the time, before the decision to bring the building down has to be made.

I do some mental exercises and physical exercises to help keep my mind and body fit. I have put up on my website a couple of these audio scripts that I listen too. It is in my voice, but I don’t think about that, I just try and let the message sink deep into my mind and see it as so. I am allowing myself to think the right thoughts to help me line up where I want to go and what I want to accomplish. I have 10 more of these audio’s in my trading program, but chose to put up two of them for visitors of Sniper Day Trading.

This is not really my complete point, this is only part of it. Rather than re-invent the wheel, I have found a guy named Ralph Marston who does some things like this. A little different, but it is great stuff. As I said yesterday, I have heard of a few traders you listen to some of the material from Ralph and they said that it has turned their trading career around. I to, enjoy his writings and his attitude. That is what you are going to need long-term, the right mind-set to establish the mental foundation that will take you straight to the top, no looking back. If you skip this point, I believe, you will wish you had not.

I do not get any compensation for recommending him or his site, but I want the readers of my blog to have all the advantages they need to succeed at day trading for a living.

Ralph has a free audio on his site called “The Best Year Ever” it is in the top left hand corner. It is a twenty-minute audio that I feel every aspiring day trader should listen too.

He puts out a daily motivational quote and it is always different, some are longer than others, but they are all great. He has done this for over 10 years. The daily motivational writings are free but he offers an audio message each week that runs 20-30 minutes long and can be downloaded to an MP3 player so you can listen a few times throughout the week. He only charges $10 dollars a month and is totally worth it, in my opinion. That is .33 cents per day and the best money I ever spent. 

As I said, I want the readers of my blog to get relevent information that can really help them achieve their goals. So here is the link for his site.  http://greatday.com/motivate/100202.html  His site is called “The Daily Motivator”.

I hope my readers see the importance of going the extra mile and building a great foundation. This is the kind of thing that can increase the odds of bringing it all together and living your dream.

 

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Face Your Day Trading Weaknesses with Change !

Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010

Today is Monday February 1st and what a good way to start the first trading day of the month, +15 on the S&P and +118 on the Dow, but will it last?

Currently, the momentum on the daily charts is down and the 120 minute chart (2 hour) has just turned up today. The weekly chart is flirting with a turn in the momentum, but it has not happened yet. A lower weekly close and I am sure it will turn down. So, a pull back up for now, will bring a moment of pause to the market from this recent sell off. We could see a sizable move, if the market can get up over todays high with any conviction.

I do see some pretty strong over-head resistance just a couple of points higher from todays close. We very well may see a slight rise on the open, followed by a pull back down inside the range one more time, before we make another attempt to break out of the downtrend. We will see what tomorrow brings, it should be good. I think the price action is going to get better, with good swings in both directions.

I did not post anything for Fridays session, I had company over the weekend, but I will post a video managing Fridays last trade + 5 S&P points and show my results for the rest of that day.

In todays trading, I did pretty good. I could have had all winners, but I did not take enough time after a break I took, to better accurately see where we were and likely to go, resulting in a loose of one point. Other than that, I had several trades that I scaled out of the positions for multiple point gains and a few 1 pointers or so. It’s in the video below if you care to take a look.

I was going to stop after my first three trades, which was plenty for my daily goal, enough for even the high side. After taking a break for about an hour, I thought to come back for another session. I don’t always do this and I don’t always recommend traders trade all day or even most of the day, because fatigue can set in and the likelihood for making mistakes goes up.

If I do come back, I almost always cut my size down. That way, if I have losses, it is not going to impact my gains as big a degree. If I have additional gains, it only gets added on for nice day. This is a conservative approach and is recommended if you already have made your daily goal.  

We have all heard of “Money Management” and how important it is. It is true. If you increase your size when you are not trading well, you make everything harder, not easier. Traders often try to get back what they lost by doing so, which is one reason of many, that most don’t make it. I hope that is not the case for those who take the time to read my trading blog. I try to give a mix of different idea’s, thoughts and insight into a day traders world.

Most of us pursue this business because we love it. We love it for the opportunities that it can bring as well as many other reasons.  Some traders want to make it ($) fast and lots of it. I don’t recommend that either. If you go to fast, you only speed the process up to the point where you will again make mistakes, loosing the hope you had when you first started out. You can’t change past trading mistakes that we all make, but we can try to uncover what it is we just did, why we did it and what are we going to do to change. If we don’t take all three of those seriously, we will only come back another day and repeat the same trading mistakes all over again.

I was watching a movie recently where a patient was seeing a doctor. He told him, it hurts when I do this. The Doctor then said, if it hurts when you do that, then don’t do it. We don’t like it when we take losses that are not apart of our plan, strategy or method, but your first loss is best. Why is it that we to often take trades that don’t fit our model. Lack of patients is one of them. I admit, I don’t have all the patients I could use sometimes while trading. That is why I trade small time frames. I don’t have to wait to long for another trade to come my way. If you are trading 15 minute  bars or even 5 price bars, you may have to wait for some time.

The point is, everyone is different and we all need to find our strengths and weaknesses. If you know what your are strong in, work on making it better. The area’s of weakness, take extra time and reflect what is holding you back. To often, it is in our minds. I am serious. There are a lot of good traders out there that are just an inch away from bringing it all together. They just need a little help, guidance and support.

Let me give you two things that can really help those who feel that you are so close to bringing consistent profitability to light. I know of and have heard of traders who have done this and they say, it is the best thing they could have done. I have talked before about how important the mind is and to often, how we see ourselves inside, gets transferred outside. If you don’t have the inside part right we only work against every good thing we try to bring to the trading screen.

There are many ways to go about thinking the right way, not only when we trade but throughout the day. I can see that I am close to my typing limit and I will probably just wait until tomorrow to better give you the right background on this. If traders take this seriously, I truly believe it will help some if not many bring up there, BOTTOM LINE. 

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