Archive for February, 2010

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Big Stock Market Move Coming !

Sunday, February 28th, 2010

Today is Sunday, February 28th and this post is for Fridays market.

The market on Friday, I believe is marking a little time. There is a good chance that we will see the rally that I had talked about last week. We saw an inside day, from Wednesdays market, followed by the sell off I was looking for, but came up about 6 points short of reaching the target. The next part of that was the reversal I called for, and it did come, closing at the highs of the day, I am sure a complete surprise for many. That happened on Thursday and Friday we just saw some base building and ended the session up slightly near the highs of the day. Monday will have to be the day to rally if in fact it does. To me that is the on time day.

The market sentiment numbers came this week with some changes. On Tuesday, the new numbers came out after a large market drop and thought it might have an influence. It didn’t, in-fact, it went the other way with bullishness increasing by over 6 to around 42% and change.

I believe there is still room for a rally here, but it will probably be contained. The market is in a key spot right here. The volume and volatility is going to pick up for sure. I can see it in the daily charts. Be on the look out, I think we will see a trending day up, but anything can happen. The market is in tipping point position, a move big one way or another, which ever way it breaks, you will see high volume and a little conviction behind it. Well, that is what I see. Always keep an open mind and don’t hold onto any market direction opinion so strongly that it blinds your decision making ability to read the price action. I mention it, because it happens all the time to traders.

Trade what you see, not what you think. That will keep you out of trouble to some extent. One more thing, if we get a trending day, try and trade in the direction of the trend as best you can. Trying to go against a strong trending day, can wreck havoc with your account equity.

Find what you feel are safe entry area’s and enter as the trend continues. Playing a choppy market or trending market is different and you need to ready for both.

Fridays trades below, daily goal met. It is not perfect, but trading is not about being perfect, but doing enough right things to get your points for the day.

Good Trading to all.

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Day Trading for Income

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Today is Wednesday February 24th and the market is holding up.

I will show a chart of what is going below, this may help create a better picture of where we go next. But first, the daily momentum is up, the hourly, is up with the weekly down and monthly up. There seems to be more momentum on the upside right now and we did today put in an inside day. This creates pressure in the middle. We now have a pivot point established above us with yesterdays high and we did bounce off of some very strong support late yesterday and early today that I missed in my market assessment. The chart to the right will help explain.

In todays S&P E-Mini  trading, I took two trades and scaled out of it as follows; + 1 point +1.75 points + 2.50 points and flat for the second. I come up a little shy of 2 net points but that is all I felt like trading today. Still very good, because it was painless. Scaling out of the first part of the trade on strength, actually weakness because I was short, takes a bit of the pressure off. I often do that, even if I think it is going lower. A lot of it has to do with how I am feeling. By taking part of the trade-off, it releases a certain amount of anxiety over the trade. Everyone has some anxiety when they trade, admitting it or not, it is still there to some degree. Getting control of it and not letting it control you is key. Managing the trade in a low risk manner, helps to release some of the unknown, because now you have an element of certainty to the trade, you have taken a profit on a portion of it and you have reduced your exposure on the remaining contracts.

There are times when I feel very strongly about a move and have my position open with no targets. In fact that is now how I usually trade, a stop always in place with the exits open. Many times the market will burst up or down and I will be able to take advantage of that move and start scaling out at 2-3 points first and up for the remaining.

This may not be the best way for everyone. If you are not quick with your decisions the market can move up 1.50 points and back down just as fast and you have nothing. Catching a quick 1 point trade with 3 contracts is a fast $150. Do it again and you have just made more money than most people make in a day, in fact more than some people make in a week, all inside of 20 minutes or so.

That was the kind of price action that was present in the first couple of hours. There were tons of trades available. Many for good runners and some for quick 1 point trades. How much is enough? To often, traders never seem to think that what they have bagged is enough.

Trading for 2-4 points a day is really plenty. By averaging 2 points a day, some days more some a little less because of a occassional stop out day, (-4 points for me), you will bag 40 points in a months time. If you are just trading 3 small contracts that is $ 150 x 40= $ 6,000 for the month or $72,000 for the year. OK, that is not really a lot of money these days, but it is something to build on. Being consistent is the first thing to best establish. If you can bring in that amount of points on a regular basis overall, trading up to 5 contracts is not much different. That puts you at 120k a year. That is a little better. Do that for a year and keep your head screwed on straight, not getting greedy and wanting and wishing for more. More will come, in its due time. When you have been faithful with what you have been given, more will be given to you. First be a good stewart of what you are able to do and make, then when the time is right, you can increase your size and watch your account grow, but again, don’t be in to much of a hurry.

In this business longevity is the name of the game. You want to “Last – Learn – & Earn”. Then, you can see yourself a bit more stable as a day trader. That is not what most do and it is unfortunate. Getting steady sound trading input is key to your survival. I try to do what I can for the readers of my blog. I don’t often talk about my exact method for trading, but I talk about everything else. If someone wants or needs training I offer that through my course and mentoring program. All of the other things are really just as important. You need both. Being mentally prepared and of sound mind with good judgement, able to exercise  ”strength of Mind”, Concentration, is vital to coming out on top.

I know for a fact that more people put a emphasis on the trade execution of trading than they put on the mental side of trading. The truth is, you really need both. One without the other, will do you no good. That is for sure. You can have the best trading method or system or what ever, but if you don’t or can not trade it, you will not profit, plain and simple. So many traders fall into that category, because they fail to realize that the difference is in the other part of trading that they have failed to pay attention to. They often times have a fairly good idea of how to make the trading game work for them, but just don’t seem to get it done.

I have been recommending as of late my free book on concentration. It has so much on the mental side of trading to help those who are seeking answers to problems they just can not exactly put their finger on. This could be the missing link. I am so sure it will help in some degree your trading efforts.

I sent the book out to some a few days ago and got back my first response. I was encouraged because he applied a few things that he read in the book and it helped him to string up several winning trades in a row. He was jacked, and told me that this stuff works.

That is what I really like to hear. It gives me encouragement to know I am helping people achieve their goals even if they are not a student of mine. The feedback eventually benefits me in some unseen ways and makes what I am doing much more rewarding.

So, I welcome your requests, and look for your feedback. Email your requests for the free book at vinnie@sniperdaytrading.com

Good trading to all !

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Is Market Sentiment Forcasting Rally or Sell-Off ?

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Today is Tuesday February 23rd and the markets are seeing the selloff that I saw coming the other day.

This is the sell-off I saw coming the other day, but it got a little delayed by the Fed announcement and maybe other things. The market did not want to go down on cue and thought it would hold up a spell to get some on thinking that we were going to continue straight back up to the top.

That may happen, but things don’t usually move in a straight line, at least not at this juncture. This move down is actually a key component to establish the next move, which ever way it decides to go. This move down will be the road map as to the next move as in a game of chess. The players are just positioning their men to take down a bigger army. Who will win the battle? Then next, who will win the war? Those are questions we are not able to determine at this time, but this setup is key.

The sell-off in my estimation, has at best, a little more to go. We are establishing a pivot point that is going to determine the next move. It is possible that we just continue the sell off down and take out the previous low and then some, but something is telling me that may not exactly happen. I always say, that we need to keep an open mind and look both ways before we go into traffic, so we don’t get hit. Get it wrong and you could be road kill. Don’t have it all on the line, not ever, no matter how sure you feel you are about a move. That said, the possibility exits for this kind of scenario.

Tomorrow, we continue with the sell-off after the market get the unsuspecting to bit on a rally long. The day has the makings for a trend day short after the initial up move. To everyone’s surprise sometime before the end of the day, we get large buying interest and we close well off our lows. This sets up for a reversal day rally the next day and over the coming days we challenge the pivot high that was established today and take it out for a sprint back up to the previous highs recently set.

That would be quite a spectacle for the trading and investment community to see. The market sentiment is a bit too weak for a sustained down move from here. Don’t get me wrong, anything can happen at any time and we always need to remember that, but this to me seems like a senario that would currently take many by surprise. As of last week the professional newsletter writers were only 35 % bullish. That is a figure that in the past has sparked rallys of significance. Now with todays sell-off, they made their new poll numbers as of the close of todays sessions. With it being a large down day, we could see many on the fence jump into the bearish camp and lose heart for this bull move. That could influence the market sentiment even more. Those people send their market forecasts to the public all across the world, giving them there call for the stock market, as well as numerous instruments. The main thing is, that they are usually wrong and giving that advise to the public at large, gets them to make the wrong call as well and lose money. That is just how it works, always has, always will. The majority never get it right and that is something that can be tracked and traced, amazing.

The above scenario may or may not happen,  but I think there is a good chance it will. They may try to hold it up for an extra day before it plays out, but we will see.

Today I just took a couple of trades and have a chart of it below. The first trade was for 1 point short and the next trade was for .50 point and 1.50 points. The larger portion was on the second half and was enough to get my daily goal. It only took about 15 minutes, which is what I like. Get in, get out and be done with it. I know without a doubt I could have picked up a bunch more points today. The price action was real good. The volume was high and the market was not messing around with all that slow action or no action I should say in the afternoons as of late.

It was good to see a little life. I am sure it will pick up as soon as the right catalyst triggers it. Picking up a few points in all of that action is not really that hard. Timing is the thing. If you think about it, that is what stands in front of so many traders who are on the verge of bringing it together. TIMING. Do you have it and if you don’t, how do you get it.

Many times traders do have it, but they just dont’ know exactly how to line everything up. Many have tried and tried, but it seems to just slip through their fingers every time. Having belief is often not enough.

Every trader needs to have a written plan of action to trade the markets and do it successfully. No plan, no success. You can not leave this to chance or a feeling. You need to be able to duplicate your efforts again and again. That means you need to do the same right thing again and again. If you don’t have it written down, how will you know if you followed it?

Excellent timing is the key. When to go long or short and when to wait. Waiting is itself a “Trade”. When you are waiting that is a trade decision and is just as much important as putting one on. Getting your first trade right in the session is very important. Exercise excellent timing, relax, take a few deep breaths and get plenty of oxygen in your lungs and wait for it to come to you. When you see it, don’t wait and second guess yourself, “TAKE THE SHOT”.

Good Trading, to all !

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Day Trading and Power of the Mind – Free Book Offer -

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

Hello, Today is Monday February 23rd and the market is still trading while I write this, currently up 3 S&P points.

So far with 30 minutes to go, the market is holding up. The volume has been so slow, just now at 1 million contracts and 30 minutes to go. I can not remember a regular session being that slow, even back during the holidays. With low volume and movement, you have less opportunities to profit. That is why I feel it is important to be able to scalp a few points out of small trading ranges. Often, that is all the market is going to give you. You can always elect to sit it out and wait for things to improve but if you don’t have patience enough to do that, you may be tempted to trade in an environment that you are not trained for. The best course of action is getting trained for it, so that if you find yourself in it, you will know what to do and how to do it.

Scalp trading is not for everyone, that is true. It can be better for some to wait for moves that are for several points, but as I said, you don’t always know when they are coming. If you blow your opportunity, you may have to wait now for hours. Do you have the patience to do that. The answer for many is “No”. That was and is my answer too. I don’t want to wait for two hours to take one trade and wait another 2 hours for the next trade. I don’t need to hit a 3 to 5 point trade to come out on top. Three one point trades counts just the same and with the trading leverage tied to the emini’s, you really don’t need much. To me, two to four points per session is plenty. If you can average just the two points per day, that is 40 points in a trading month. Some days you will have more points and that can make up for the days you get stopped out for the day. I have a 4 S&P point daily stop out point. This ensures that if I am having a bad day, that I don’t do any really bad damage to my account. Getting the upper end of my daily trading goal, is always nice at times. This also protects me from any day that I may come up short.

I was working with someone earlier this morning who was having a little trouble. After our session, he saw things much clearer and had a new sence of confidence, always a good thing. His confidence reconfirmed in the method he had learned and trained on, but needed a little guidance and one on one time. After our session he took three trades for 3 points in an hour. I felt happy for him, but better than one days profits, he has a clear picture of what he is looking for and how to go about getting it.

In todays trading, I took a few trades, nothing earth shattering and could have done better, but it was enough. Trades are as follows; flat, +4 ticks/+5 ticks, -1 tick, +2 ticks/+2 ticks, +2 ticks/+1 tick. The last trade was the only counter trend trade that I took and am trying to take less of them these days. The bigger move came from just above my last trade short and was what I was seeing, but decided to not trade any more and let it go. Tomorrow is another day.

Just a reminder, it may still be a little while before I get the “Free Book on Concentration” up on my website. If anyone wants it now, just email me. It is very good. It pertains so much to trading and what we do, that I am sure it will help every trader who reads it with an open mind and applies its principles. When you start reading the first chapter alone, I believe you will be impressed.

Day Trading has much more to it than getting the entries down and knowing where to exit. You will discover so much more about yourself than you ever thought you could. Some of it good and some of it, not so good. It will bring to the surface all of your weaknesses and expose them, to yourself.  Unless you know what to do with that and how to adjust, you will eventually be working against yourself. Why would we allow ourselves to do this. Well, many traders do not realize how the mental side of trading is always at work here.  The path of least resistance is to do the wrong thing at the wrong time.

Having the mental clarity, focus and mind power to do what you should do and when you need to do it, is imperative while trying to trade the markets. If you find yourself listening to competing voices in your head, second guessing yourself about every trade, not allowing the market to work for you instead of against you, as so many traders end up doing, you will struggle. 

 I too have to watch myself in this area and need to be in the right state of mind when I trade. So, as I have stated before, I am often times talking to myself while I am sharing with my readers. I know what it is that I need to do and want to be sure not to go outside of that. If I am in the red, I am very confident that I will come back, but should not be looking at or dwelling on my past loss at that time. Traders to often, trade with their P&L in mind. It is hard to have the right perspective when money is on the line. The best place to be in when trading, is not having to need the money. If you need the money and the trade, you will be trading from a position of weakness, not strength. That is a mindset and often an economic reality for many. Try and get yourself out of that position and trade from a position of strength.

Mental preparation can make all the difference in the world. I strongly encourage any trader who is serious about making consistent income from the markets, to get my free book. If the book is all you want, that is all I will give you, if you want some advise, I can give that to you as well. (Free)

You have a lot to gain, if you have not considered the real impact, the power of your mind can have on your trading results. You have everything to gain and nothing to lose from asking for it. I have sent it out to some who have requested it and will report back here on how they liked it and how it has made a difference in there trading.  

So, until then, Good Trading.

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Reading the Current Market

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

This is a short post from Fridays session, February 19th

Well, Fridays session had a little twist to it, in that the Fed had decided to raise interest rates. A good and bad sign. The good sign is in that they would have not done that if the economy was not growing. The bad sign is, that it could signify the start of a trend of increased rates, which could increase into additional borrowing costs for corporations and eventually could pose some interest rate competition to the stock market. Since rates are so low, it is currently not likely that investors are going pile into CD’s or Money Funds. There is not a return there at all, especially when you factor in inflation, you are looking at a negative rate of return. So again, not a huge risk at this point. The market liked it, in that it stopped a slide that had started in the night trading and could have turned into a route.

These are the unseen changes that can come up at any time. That is the reason, you have to be able to read the market and not be stubborn with your assessment of things, trying to force your will on the market, not usually a good idea.

By reading the current price action, you could have seen the small ralleys as they happened one after another. You may have played a short just before 7 am, but looking at the action around 7:20 a.m. West Coast, you would or should have seen that the pressure was on the buy side. At that point, you either wait for a clearer signal, or you go long.  Everything on my charts said buy, all across the board. If you are looking for a short, that was not the place. You could have been tempted at 8:50 am to go short, but you were too early. The topping process as it was finishing up at around 10:20 was a much better area to attempt it for any movement of size. Again, the market said at that time in point that it was getting tired and in need of a rest. It was over-run by the bears, but only temporarily. The S&P index did manage to recover from the pre-market selloff and added a little to its previous gains.

The market sentiment as measured by Investors Intelligence newsletter writers was again suggesting a market rally of some significance could take place. The bearish sentiment rose a little and the bullish sentiment also moved up a touch. It is still sitting around 35 % a very low number, suggesting as mentioned already a rally could come in here. I did comment on that last week, but thought we could get some sort of move back down for a spell. It still may come, but the current momentum is now up in the daily and the shorter term 120 minute charts. Will it continue, it’s currently hard to say, but given the sentiment numbers and that the momentum is up, it may be presumptuous of us to have any degree of certainty that the market is ready for a significant pull back. I don’t currently have any strong feeling one way or another for tomorrow, but would have to side with the current momentum. That would have been a smarter play for Fridays session, than trying to out guess the top the move back up. Either way, try to read the market and listen to what it is saying at the time you are trying to trade it.

Friday, I did not really have enough time to trade and thought I could slip it in. I was only trading small, but I did not like the very slow action waiting for the market to move, was killing me. I was trying to force something to happen. I did not want to wait. The price action from 10:30 to 12:00 on Friday was so slow, it looked like it was never going to move. I took a few trades, but just could not take it. I did see lower prices, but second guessed myself, because of the slow action. I stopped trading at around flat and decided to wait until next week. The conditions for me, were just not right and I could feel it. That is the best thing any trader can do. If things don’t seem or feel right, don’t trade.

Well, that is it for now. More good stuff coming this week to talk about, so until then. The few trades I took below.

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Free Book Offer – All Day Traders Need This Book – Powerful !

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Today is Thursday, February 18th and the markets hit the high side of the range called on Friday and in Mondays post.

We saw a nice rally today after consolidating in a tight range for some time. We ended up hitting the high side of the targets I had called for the last couple of days. That target is now complete. I had wished I would have commented on the market in yesterday’s post, but I got right into a lesson continued from the previous day. I do see a good chance of a short-term reversal over the next few days.

Currently, the S&P futures are off their highs in the aftermarket and that will probably get transferred into Fridays market. It looks like to me that we are going to get selling pressure for tomorrows session. I was expecting this today and did see a very nice topping process take place right at days end. All that aside, I do think that you will see more selling opportunities for tomorrows market and of greater magnitude. Keep an open mind, but don’t be afraid of shorting if the setups are there. You may be glad that you did.

I just thought of something. I know that for many traders, it is easier to trade on the long side, than it is on the short side. It may feel un-natural to short the market. Everything often times is harder mentally to actually execute for so many traders. It is not that way for me, but I am thinking and talking about other traders. Do you notice that to be true for you? That is a good question and you may want to give it some thought. If that is true, why do you think that is so. Do you have mental barriers that you have placed in-front of you that says, you can’t, you won’t and every time you try, it just does not work out? 

It is true that most traders have a pre-disposed position to go long and there are many reasons why that is so. Rather going into all the reasons why, I would like to talk about how you can overcome that mental barrier and break free to profit from both sides of the market.

If tomorrow does happen to be a down day and you are only able to go long, don’t you think that you are at a disadvantage. Many traders just cannot train their mind to see the setups in reverse of long positions. I feel the basic reason traders put limits on themselves and buy into the mindset that you buy low and sell high and anything other than this is unconventional and can not be trusted.

A traders who wants to trade for a living will need to face this reality sooner or later. If you go into a boxing match with one hand tied behind your back, do you think you have as good a chance as with two hands. Obvious answer, No. You need both hands to be the best that you can be. That is a key statement, “the best that you can be”. Why not, isn’t that part of it.

Markets often go down a lot faster than they go up and not being able to participate can be frustrating. You may be trying to go long, where there is very little room to grab a profit. You get stopped out and try again. Looking for a bottom in a down-trending market can devastate your trading account. DON’T DO THAT. It is best not to pick bottoms and tops for that matter. We want the part in the middle. Hero’s like to say, that they picked the top or bottom of the market, all of which will really get you nowhere. How many losses did you incur before you finally got it right?

Which brings me into yesterdays post. Being able to concentrate and focus on market rhythm is key.

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It is of the utmost value to learn how to concentrate. To make the greatest impact on your trading, you must be able to concentrate your entire thought process on the venture at hand. The person able to concentrate, utilizes all constructive thoughts and shuts out all destructive ones. Concentration makes the will and intellect act in unison and means strength of mind, exactly what we need as traders.

Don’t underestimate the power of this trait. If you don’t have it, you need to get it. The power to control your mind, and the thoughts that come into it. If you build up your ability in this area, you will see your trading improve, I guarantee it.

When you have learned to master your thoughts, you will be able to change them as easily as changing your clothes.

I am offering a free 138 page “Branded Book” from “Sniper Day Trading” on the subject above to anyone who asks for it. I will have a link on my website up in the next couple of days, with instructions on how to get it. If anyone is interested and wants to get it now, just email me your request and I will get it to you asap. I can email it to you, so you will get it right away. Don’t be shy, just send me an email and I will send it to you, no obligation at all. If you have any trading questions as well, just jot those down too, and I will give you some good trading insight. If you just want the book, that is fine.

I am trying to bring value to my readers with real benefits that they can use in their trading everyday. Don’t pass up the offer.

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Below is a chart of todays trades.             

 

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Reach Your Trading Goals With The Power Of Concentration

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

Today is Wednesday February 17th

Continuing from yesterday: Becoming your own Trading Coach. Yesterdays trading lesson, may have seemed a bit harsh for some, but it is the truth that will set us free to live our trading dreams. With that said, having identified what some of our biggest trading problems are, we can now set on a course to find solutions to those problems.

The ability to focus our concentration on our trading setups is going to be key. Let us assume your trading plan is to trade the first 90 minutes of the day or less, which is a good plan. There you will have volume and usually plenty of trades to choose from. If you have a daily goal, like I do, 2-4 points most days, then you can break your goal down to a few bit size pieces or you may get it all at once. The trading session will have to determine that.

You need to be mentally prepared to see and wait for what you believe is a high probability set up. If you take less than that, you put yourself at risk for getting stopped out. You will have to make that up, if you expect to hit your goal within the morning session, so be a little particular, but not so much to where you don’t end up taking any trades. You can not have fear as part of your self talk or underlying mindset. You should be calm and relaxed. It is normal to be a little anxious, but that is what we want to work on. RELAX, but get and stay focused on what you are looking for.

Let the trade come to you, don’t go out searching for it. If you know what you are looking for, then wait for it. A sniper does not go out and use his rifle like a machine gun, hoping to hit something, but he waits for his target, sets his sites and lets the target come to him. When it all lines up, he takes the shot. This reminds me of the resent movie, “The Shooter”. That is what we should be doing, lining up our entries and letting our targets come to us. You will need the power of concentration behind you, to focus and execute the trade.

If you are not exactly sure you know what you are looking for, then you have a problem. You need to be sure, what you are waiting for. If you get confused about your entry, how can you be sure about getting your target. So, that may be one of the things you need to put on your list to solve and resolve.

Assuming you know what your target looks like, you should have a tight set of conditions that can put you in the trade. I, often times put up a small circle on the screen as an acceptable entry area. Going outside that entry area posses more risk on getting stopped out, but also of not hitting my target. Every trader needs a reference point for his entries, something that tells him he is paying too much or just right. If you don’t have one, that to is a problem and another item to put on your list of trading solutions.

Trading for extended periods of time can work against you. So be sure you do not find yourself glued to the chair for 3, 4, or 5 hours straight. You will not be helping yourself, by doing this.  Your ability to concentrate will go down as more time goes by. Sitting at your computer and trying to follow and or trade most of the day is very draining and you will  make mistakes. You may just be trying to work hard and that is admirable but we need to do more activities with direct purpose and concentrated effort. Think of it as leveraging your time, the same way that we leverage ourselves in contract purchases.  You will get far superior results by executing your trading plan this way.  But again, this is only my opinion.

The last point for today. One key element for trading success is going to be your ability to stay focused and concentrate through the whole process as mentioned. Staying sharp and fresh, first starts by making a decision and then doing those things that will bring it about.

Read about the life of any great man and you will generally find that the dominent quality that made him successful was in his ability to concentrate. Study those that were failures and you will often find that there lack of concentration was the cause.

I have tried to give you a few different things to think about here, but the main point is your ability to concentrate and execute your trade plans.

Good Trading to all !

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Todays trades; just small scalp trades today. I have not done this for a long time. I usually have trades for 1 or 2 points or more, but today, I did not have all that much time in between doing other things. I find it odd, that the subject I spoke of today, is what I did not have. I was not as focused as I should have been, but just trying to do too much.

 I do know that I came in late on the first trade and a touch to early on the second trade, the third trade I added on and averaged out a larger position the fourth trade was flat and I re-entered for the last. All winning trades but all small. I just took what I saw quickly in and out. +2 ticks, +2 ticks, + 2 and +1 tick (avg), flat and +2 ticks. These trades were not pretty but it counts and I will take it. I should have a little more time tomorrow.

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Become Your Own Trading Coach, maintain control

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010

Today is Tuesday February 16th and we saw what I wrote about on Sunday nights posts a nice rally +169 Dow and +19 S&P 500 cash.

Well, Tuesday was the on time day. I put a chart at the bottom of yesterdays post and showed the target area. The minimum target area was 2 points shy at +21 points. We got 19 of them all today and suspect that we will get the rest tomorrow. That was the minimum move I see, but there could be more. I also wrote about it last week and called out the numbers a couple of times.

I was not able to trade today, first time since the holidays. I was just to caught up doing other things. Last Friday, I almost missed the trading session but came in after 12 noon West Coast and still picked up my goal. I have been working on updating my website and it is coming along as well as putting together a newer version of my trading method. It’s all still the same, but with some new things added. I am doing it in Power Point which is easier to move things around. Any current members will get the new material for free once I am done with it. Also working on updating my back office with new content, video’s and training. It is all a lot of work and I am just recovering from being sick and a hard drive crash, one after the other. WOW. That was a lot to handle.

Next week I will schedule time with students to go over their performance and stay in touch.  So feel free to call and schedule a time. This venture is more than about me. Helping others is the best way I know how to help myself. So far so good.

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One Key to success, staying in control while trading: There is nothing worst than losing control. You feel helpless and hopeless when you find yourself there. What can we do to maintain control while trading? This is similar to what I have been talking about lately.

When you lose control, of your trading plans and take non method trades, you only hurt yourself in the long run, even if the trade works out. We always want to establish exactly why we do what it is we do and when to do it, so that the pattern of maintaining control can be repeated. In order to do that, we need to have power in our will and over our emotions. As mentioned in earlier posts, there are many good traders out there that know how to trade, but their inability to maintain control when a trigger point sends everything spinning out of control, seems to happen all to often.

If these traders were able to replace the 3 or 4 really bad days out of the month that keeps their equity at zero or less, they would replace doubt and fear, with hope and victory. So how is it that we are able to reverse those very bad days with gains and come out with positive equity for the month. The battle is won and fought in your mind. Exercising self-control over your action is key, but it first starts in your mind. The thoughts you think are so important to you as a trader. Don’t underestimate it but embrace it, by going on the offensive. Battles are not won in retreat, but on the offensive. So, don’t hold back and take charge.

Everyone does not have the luxury of having a trading coach and many times we need to be our own coach, but make no mistake about it, we all need a coach. So, if you are your own trading coach, what would you tell yourself to do right now. The first thing any coach would do, is find out where you currently stand. How are your trading funds. Are you capitalized well enough to continue the journey. Once that is established and checks out, you should find out what is holding you back from going forward. Identifying the reason why you took those 3 or 4 large losing days is imperative to your future success.

If you are in battle and you are shot, the first thing a medic will do is access the damage and stop the bleeding. He knows if you lose too much blood, you die. Then, he will get you to base where he can perform possibly surgery. That process is going to be painful, but it is painful lying on the field with little hope. So the point is don’t expect fixing your trading problems as a pleasant thing. You may go kicking and screaming, but you know if you don’t, you stand to lose much more.

We need to be ”Men” and cowboy up. No one likes change, but do you want to meet your trading goals and be financially independent or would you rather let that dream pass you by as only a distant memory. I think most people would choose the first one. So what are you going to do about it. If you don’t have outside help, you will have to perform the surgery yourself. In other words it is going to be hard to force yourself to do what you have to, in order to  meet your trading goals.

These are only a few of the reasons why most traders don’t make it. Traders never thing that it is them, its always the other guy. I know this may seem a bit brutal, but, this is exactly what I am talking about. Face your trading problems with an action plan. Get motivated to do the things that are going to produce change. If you identify something that is holding you back, but you find yourself saying to the solution, ”I don’t want to do that”, then you know exactly what it is that you MUST DO to slay that dragon.

Let me end it this way; Behavior is patterned, how we think, feel and act have a pattern to them and that patterning is what make us who we are. The sum total of our patterns is our personality.

The same is true as a trader. Our trading has patterns, some good and some not so good. What we think, feel and act while trading makes up our trading personality and some of us need a make-over. Find solutions to the things that hold you back and force yourself to change. I will have more specific solutions in the posts to come, until then,

GOOD TRADING !

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Day Traders Self Evaluation – Can You Do It ?

Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

Today is Monday February 15th,  and the markets were closed today .

We are half way through the month of February and hopefully many readers of my daily trading blog are off to a good start.

I have just a few questions for everyone to think about.  How are you approaching your trading?  If you take the time and energy to answer you will have the opportunity to do something about changing it. You can do many of these things yourself, so think about some of them and write out anything that you may want to give more time to reflect on.

What is the quality of your “self talk” while trading? Is it angry, frustrated, negative, filled with feeling of defeat? How much of what runs through your mind is market focused or self focused?  Are you calling out what you see, are you going through some of the key components of your trading method to see if you have low risk trades coming together?

Do you have the patience necessary to wait for the trade to come to you or are you seeking it out, looking under every rock.

What work do you do on yourself and your trading when markets are closed?

These are just some self evaluations that we should all being thinking about. We should be giving ourselves every opportunity to hit the trades as they come to us and do it with some formof confidence. We need to believe that we can do what it takes to put all of this together, but not letting that belief turn us blind to our shortcomings and end up only with wishful thinking.

Our trading should never be filled with negative energy. That will 100% get transferred to the markets and our trading performance. If you feel like any of the emotions I mentioned above, don’t trade. Keep your equity safe until you can get a better handle on those emotions. Just because you have funds in a trading account does not mean that you need to trade it every moment. Don’t be compulsive. If you see that trait in you, you need to find a way to purge that from your system. It will only hunt you down and bury you, ALIVE,  if you let it. So, don’t let it. Take control.

Why do we trade? For the money, right. Well, a lot of people trade for trading sake. A form of entertainment or rush. That is really not go to take you where you ultimately want to go. We should, in my estimation, trade for income. That is a whole different mind-set. You need to think differently and do different things than you used to in order to make that work.

That alone, could make a big difference. Your approach to the markets is very important in how it all turns out. The battle is won and lost most often in your mind. That is the truth. If you know how to trade, this is the final thing that may be holding you back.

In my last post, I mentioned not beating yourself at this venture. The way most people allow themselves to be beat is by letting negative energy into their trading office / room / or where ever they trade. The first step in fixing those problems is identifying that there is a problem. There is no room for not facing our weaknesses. Just do it. Trading is a very personal thing, no one is going to know, only you, so write out what is your biggest struggles. Find solutions to them. With every problem there is a solution. You may not have looked hard enough. Don’t give up.

You need to be exceptional in every area of your life. That may sound like a tall order and we all know how human we are. We are filled with dysfunction, some more than others. That may be true, but that does not give us a license to just do what ever. There are always consequences to every action that we take, whether we believe in it or not. The more positive things that you bring into your life and the more you do for others, in general, the more in control, fulfilled, positive, optimistic and complete you will feel. That energy will give you what you lack to change any trading flaw that you may be facing. You will bring all of the positive energy with you to your trading room and that will get transfered back onto the markets, it can only help.

This may sound like a whole lot of goop to some, but I feel what I am saying has merit, well it does, because I lived it and experienced it. No one can deny that. That is why I can share it with you today. We all have struggled with various problems, those determined to overcome there shortcomings will prevail.

My hope is that this may help some to reflect on many of these points and some will take the time to identify where they need to improve.

Our words have so much power in them, we do not realize it. If we did, we would talk different, think different and then do different. Very few traders make money consistently, but if more of them did some of the things I wrote here today, many would soon close the gap, “How About You” !

Good Trading

Potential Target Area, Short Term

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Keep Your Trading Edge – Do Not Beat Yourself !

Monday, February 15th, 2010

This is Sunday night, February 14th and a few comments from last week and the days ahead.

I am finally getting better, from feeling sick last week, so thanks for bearing with me. I still did a little trading on Thursday and Friday and have my results below. Hit my daily goal both days. I don’t want to take anything for granted, I have to stay sharp. Last week, there was a day, I was not so sharp, taking non method trades. I was able to recover, but I really don’t like doing that. Trying to trade when you are not feeling well is asking for trouble. It was a good thing I was able to pull it out.

We always have to maintain a high state of consciousness, being alert and focused. That is why, I don’t like to trade to long. It is hard to keep that level of focus for the whole day. You will get tired and make mistakes. It is imperative that traders take lots of breaks in between their trading session. Don’t let yourself beat you, because it happens every trading day the markets are open. Good traders, get beat, by even simple things like trading to long. Often, it can spiral out of control, trying to recover, with the now wrong mindset.

Last week Friday, we closed at the high of the day. I came into the day late, after 12 pm. I hardly ever come in that late and I did get a little intimidated by not having a lot of time. I rushed a few entries and went underwater a couple of points, but found the trade I was looking for and ran with it.

If the market was going to make a run for it, I think  Tuesday could be the day, Monday is a Holiday and the cash markets are closed. I see in the night trading we are down about 4 S&P points, but that doesn’t mean to much now. Friday’s session closed strong and that was the move I was in. It moved higher after the cash market closed, so this move back may just be filling in the gap.

Last week I did mention that the investor intelligence news letter market survey was showing some weak bullish numbers, which is bullish for the market. Those guys most always get it wrong, heard mentality. They pass that all along to their readers and the public buys into it and gets wacked. I have watched this happen literally for over 20 years, consistently. The bearish number is still a bit low, only 27 % feel the market will drop. That is number should be higher to get a good bull move. I am not going to focus much on that now. The price tells all and the current momentum short-term is up. The daily momentum is still pointing down now as is the weekly. The market has some work to do, for it to turn this back up. I am not so sure it can make significant new highs. A rally yes, even back up to the previous high is possible,  the rest we will have to wait and see. If it was going to make a move, Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest will have to be the day. I think it will, but a breakdown of 1060 on the futures will likely send us much lower.

Well, a new week awaits us with new opportunities, make the most of it. Until my next post Monday afternoon/evening, good trading.

Top is Thursdays Trades and the lower chart is Fridays trades.

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