Today is Tuesday, January 5th and we got just what we needed, a rally.
Yesterday, I did not post an update, but we had a nice rally to start off the year. I did see that the volume was light and that is still to be expected. It is easy to get vacation fever, I had a touch of it myself. The bigger volume will not typically come back until Monday’s session next week. That is what I remember from past years.
The market was sitting on key support. I remember I said, we could not afford to close down 1 S&P point and still maintain the long-term momentum from the March 6th lows. It held and pushed higher. This is shaping up nicely. I am sure if the short-term momentum can continue for a little while, a week or so, it will inevitably turn the ”stock market advisers” bullish, pushing the numbers to the potential trigger point of +55%. Currently it stands around 50%, but these guys are trend followers and I can only imagine they will turn bullish here right at the top. Many of them have already been bullish and good for them, but the ones that have been neutral will soon BIT. Once that happens, you can bet we are going to get a big sell off, mark my words.
We are currently at 9 years highs in the numbers when you combine the two together. That kind of excess will not sustain itself indefinitely. The only thing that will be able to work off the exuberance, is a sell off. Let me remind you, only 15% of professional stock market news letter writers are bearish. That is a small number and the majority will be proven wrong. It always happens this way, I see nothing to say, “it is different this time”. Some how, the market knows and seems to be waiting for the bullishness to catch up as well. Then in my opinion, you will have the makings for the perfect stock market storm. We are not there yet and I am only giving my opinion and not stock market advise here. I will share with you when I think all of this is going to play out. About a month ago, I did get a little excited when I saw the bearish numbers turn up so low, but the bulls were still cooking. I came back down to earth in a day or so realizing that, it was not time.
Those numbers I am talking about are published on a website called investors intelligence, you can look it up if you want to. I just look at those numbers to get an idea of how much bullish/bearish sentiment there is out there and these numbers have proven to be very accurate in the past at very key stock market turning points.
In my personal trading, I took one trade yesterday coming off the top. At 10:45 am West Coast, I went short at 1029 on the S&P and covered half at 1027.75 and the other half at 1028. I had unexpected company and did not have time to continue. No trading today, although today had some real nice moves to it. Just taking care of a few loose ends. I plan to get a good schedule for myself starting on Monday, this coming week. The volume will be back, I am sure the moves will be back and I will be back. I will be posting my trades from the first hour of the day at least.
The first 90 minutes of the day are where the best volume is going to come in. After that, from 11:30 to 12:45 I feel are the next best times to trade. As a “Scalp Trader“, I feel I can trade any time and still squeeze out a few points for the session. I have been doing this for some time now, but to often last year I did not trade the open, but closer to the slower time of day. That just makes it take longer, which is really not my style.
As a “S&P Emini Day Trader“, we should all trade accordingly to our strengths, not our weakness’. If you have the patience to wait long periods of time for the trade to work and be OK with that, swing trading might be your style. If you feed off of the fast pace you may be geared to a shorter term time frame. There is a lot in between and every trader needs to really figure that out. You will not be at your potential if you are not matched up properly with your personality and trading strengths.
If anyone needs or wants helps with this, I am available. This is free advise, I will not ask you for anything, or will not try to sell you anything, but I will try to see where you are at, ask you some questions and help you identify your strengths to make sure you are going in the right direction. I don’t worry about doing this for free, it all works itself out in the long run. But helping people overcome their trading challenges brings me a lot of satisfaction and it helps me more clearly define my own strengths and allows me an avenue to express my experience to those who will listen.
So, don’t be shy and send me an email. You can get contact information at www.sniperdaytrading.com I use Skype to communicate and my Skpye name is SniperDayTrading.
Good Trading.
http://www.screencast.com/t/ZTFlZjY1 Yesterdays one and only trade
Related posts:
- Market Turning Points
- Today’s Turning Points in the Sell Off
- “TURNING POINTS”, what are they ?
- Today’s Turning Points
- Today’s First Hour Turning Points
Tags: market turning points, S&P Emini Day Trader, Sniper Trading
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