Today is Thursday, December 3rd and the markets are now starting to show its hand.
It seems pretty clear now, that the market is ready for a pull back. Over the next few days, I would expect the market to pull back to support, around 1077. At that point, we will have to see, but the short-term momentum is down. I believe there is important unemployment numbers coming out tomorrow. I don’t know how or what that is going to do to the current momentum, but I would suspect that it isn’t going to change anything much, still down.
The daily charts on the Dow and S&P have been broadening, as I mentioned lately. It is getting strung out with a slight upwards bias, but that appears to be changing at least for now. Early in today’s session, we hit a new high in the index and backed off from there. We did close at the low of the day, which is really a bad sign. We will just wait and see how it plays out, but this is just what I am seeing.
On the sentiment front, I was waiting for the new numbers to come out and today they did. The bearish percent dropped again, by 1% to now 16%. That is low, very low. It has not been at that low of a level in the past 5 years or longer, I can only see the last 5 years. The bullish sentiment went down a little, from 50.6% to 50%. We will just keep watching the bullish sentiment for changes.
With all that being said, the market can make its move down now if it wants to. You never want to place overly strict conditions on market flow. Reading the price action is the key and will always remain that way. Identifying sentiment conditions only gives occasional insight into major market moves, it is not full proof, but it has shown itself to be very accurate for the over 20 years I have been following it.
In todays trading I started trading again during the slow period of the day. That would not have been really to bad in and of itself, since that seems to be when I start most days, but I was feeling sick today. That was not fun. I should have taken the day off, but I didn’t. I hate getting the first trade of the day wrong, but that was how it went. I saw a move short that I was sure was going to pop, but I could not get into it fast enough and it threw my timing off. I did recover with a nice 7 tick trade a moment later, after that the market just stopped. It took forever to move a couple of ticks. I remember one small little momentum move took 30 minutes and it only moved a few ticks. I was dieing there, waiting through all of that and not feeling good to boot.
When I looked at all the real nice moves from the early morning trading I felt worse. If I would be trading the open, I would quickly have gotten my goal and could have ended it. When I feel better, I will be trading the early morning open, thats it. I have been trading OK, but it has been more work and taking longer because of when I start trading and am limiting myself because the moves are just not their.
The smart thing is to trade the open and take off the rest of the day, like everyone else. Enough about that.
I am going to have to end it here for today. Below is a video of my trades for the day.
Related posts:
- Unemployment Numbers to be released Friday
- Stock Market Still Showing Signs of Life
- Market Sentiment Numbers Helped Take the Market Down
- Stock Market Showing Signs of Strength
- Key Stock Market Turning Points
Tags: bullish sentiment, market sentiment, momentum, unemployment
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