Today is Thursday, December 10th and the Index’s recaptured the other half of Tuesdays drop.
The sentiment numbers just came in and I would call it good news for the bulls. The bullish sentiment currently stands at 48.4% that is down from 50% even and 50.6% before that. The extreme numbers to watch for are 55% plus, we are not there yet on this side. Looks like room for a potential rally, it is possible.
Over the last 5 days, the market has retraced exactly 62% from the last high hit on December 4th. After hitting that today, the market looks like it just went flat. On top of that, today was roll over day, meaning today the new contract month becomes the front month in the E-Mini Futures. For the S&P the new symbol is esh10. The “H” stands for March and the “10″ stands for next year, 2010.
Roll over day is usually a little strange in that you have half of the days volume in the old contract and half in the new contract. It makes for a slow day if you use tick charts. I feel, it was a slow day anyway you look at it today, not much movement. After the open, we only saw a 6 point range for the whole day. That is not very much and would call it a range bound day of consolidation. The thing is we did have a move up in the pre-market trading of about 8 points and the market basically close in that exact same spot, 1102 on the S&P December contract.
I will probably be looking at the new symbol tomorrow, esh10, as it will have more volume in it then. Today it was about 50/50, even. Tomorrow should be different.
The S&P’s current momentum on the hourly cash chart is up and the 120 minute chart that I also look at is just about to go positive, but hasn’t yet. Lastly, the daily is currently pointing down, so we still have a struggle going on here. If you get all of them pointing up, it could be like Christmas for many, we shall see. The main thing here is, don’t be surprised either way, break out or break down, and hold any opinion about larger direction to a minimum, that way you won’t feel like you have any long-term commitments. I know that thinking is popular with single people, but while trading the markets, that is the correct philosophy to hold.
Any follow through after todays move is going to have to be viewed as bullish. I checked the news front and I don’t see any releases scheduled for tomorrow, so the market is going to have to make its own news.
In todays trading, I started late in the day, around 10:30 West Coast, tail end of the New York lunch hours and traded a touch over an hour. I had three trades, + 3 ticks, +4 ticks, and +2 ticks for a total of 2.25 points. It adds up just the same if it was just one trade, minus a little commission and the .25 covers it.
Yesterday I said I was going to give you a small exercise to do and so here it is.
Re-read the second half of yesterdays post to get refreshed from where I left off,
Make a list of single words, about the way that you see yourself. This list is for no-one else to see or know about, so try and be honest with yourself. This really could help your trading, even if you currently don’t think it will. Take a deep breath and ask yourself the question, write down what comes to your mind and keep writing, don’t think about it too much and again, no-one will see it, just you.
OK, I will bet that was interesting. Your actions will be determined by the way that you see yourself, it’s just the way it is. If you have negative thought and attitudes about not only your trading or your results, but life in general, it will spill over into your trading. If it doesn’t, then you are probably from another planet, “Cripton”, maybe. This is real, so give it a try, what do you have to lose.
If on your list you see things that you would like to change or think you should change, then, you know what it is you need to do. It needs to go a little deeper than a mental assertion that you will alter something. The reason why is, it probably will not stick if it is just mental recognition.
Let me give you an example. Have you ever made a “New Years Resolution” before? Sure you have, we all have done that. If you think back about some of those resolutions you made, I am sure, if you are like most people, that you may have only kept them for a week, two at best. The reason is you only let it go to the surface of your mind and then again, you may not have really wanted to change those things deep down.
If you make a commitment to yourself to do something, don’t take it lightly, follow through and be consistent. The reason is, it provides mental strength that you will need when you are trading. I can tell you that most of my trading mistakes occur when I try and take non-method trades, or going beyond my method. There is really no need for me to do that, but I do at times feel stronger than other times mentally and I do feel at times, the pull to take non-method trades, especially when I know I should not. When I am feeling mentally strong, I can resist the temptation to enter to soon and wait for things to better come together. The opposite is true as well.
Going back to the original point, if you see yourself as successful, disciplined, patient, determined and do things in your everyday life to match up with beliefs or soon to be beliefs, then you will be on your way to achieving it. Your actions will follow your beliefs and play itself out in pretty much all area’s of your life, with trading being just one of them. So now your know what you need to do. Prepare for “Battle” and the “Victory”. You can “Do It”.
http://www.screencast.com/t/NzBmMTI3ZD Todays trades
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Tags: mental exercise, trading exercise
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